The model picks an away win for Vitesse, with a 48% chance of victory, 27% for Eindhoven and 25% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4% chance. FC Eindhoven, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.83 goals scored and conceded. Vitesse, on the road versus a similar side, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 97.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.8%, Under 6.5 at 93.0%, Under 5.5 cards at 88.0%, Away +2 handicap at 87.8%, Away over 0.5 goals at 87.7%, Under 5.5 at 84.9%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 84.2%. Eindhoven’s recent form shows three straight losses before a win, while Vitesse comes off a win, setting the stage for a tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Eindhoven win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vitesse win
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.83
2.07
1.71
1.31
1.94
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
1.17
3.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (24)
1.58
2.00
1.83
1.83
1.33
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.37
1.56
1.56
1.64
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.48
1.43
1.71
1.62
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.4%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.4%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
5.0%
FC Eindhoven goals ↓
Vitesse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.4%
6.8%
4.2%
1.9%
1
4.5%
11%
9.4%
5.7%
2.6%
2
3.8%
7.0%
6.4%
3.9%
1.8%
3
1.7%
3.2%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Eindhoven goals (down), columns = Vitesse goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
FC Eindhoven is 0.24 points worse than Vitesse in terms of average points per game (1.24 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
FC Eindhoven is 0.34 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
FC Eindhoven is 0.37 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
FC Eindhoven is 2.7 percentage points worse than Vitesse in terms of average possession (44% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Eindhoven or Draw
50.4%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
48%
covers FC Eindhoven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven or Vitesse
77.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
48%
covers FC Eindhoven + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vitesse
72.6%
Avg Implied -
28%
25%
48%
covers Draw + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 3.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Eindhoven, so a minus line means FC Eindhoven give that many goals of a start and Vitesse receive them. At -1, FC Eindhoven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Eindhoven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -2
4.8%
Draw -2
8.1%
Vitesse +2
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven -1
12.9%
Draw -1
14.4%
Vitesse +1
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +1
50.4%
Draw +1
20.1%
Vitesse -1
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Eindhoven)
FC Eindhoven +2
70.4%
Draw +2
15.2%
Vitesse -2
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.79
0.67
0.67
0.83
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.59
1.00
0.50
0.85
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.14
1.07
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.21
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
1.06
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.89
0.43
1.21
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Owen Renfrum25%
Siegert Baartmans25%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Emre Eksi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rens Boon33%
Clint Essers25%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Mika de Jonge0%
Emre Eksi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Guus Beaumont50%
Niek Munsters33%
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika de Jonge25%
Clint Essers0%
Xander Blomme0%
Jort Borgmans0%
Guus Beaumont0%
Junior Poortvliet0%
Niek Munsters0%
Luc Netten0%
Rens Boon0%
Amir Bryson0%
Owen Renfrum0%
Siegert Baartmans0%
Emre Eksi0%
Vitesse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian BrĂĽll0%
JoĂŁo Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian BrĂĽll0%
JoĂŁo Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian BrĂĽll0%
JoĂŁo Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian BrĂĽll0%
JoĂŁo Pinto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
FC Eindhoven's squad is €4m less valuable than Vitesse's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's attack is €2m less valuable than Vitesse's (€2m vs €4m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
FC Eindhoven and Vitesse have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
FC Eindhoven's defence is €1m less valuable than Vitesse's (€1m vs €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →