FC Fredericia is the clear favourite, with the model predicting a home win at 64% probability. This is largely due to Vendsyssel FF's struggles on the road, where they have averaged 1 goal scored and 1.69 conceded per match against teams of similar strength. FC Fredericia, on the other hand, has averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.64 conceded at home.
The model expects a total of 3.5 goals, with the most likely outcome being 3 goals. The most likely score is a 2-1 home win for FC Fredericia, with a 9.6% probability. FC Fredericia has also been struggling to find form, coming off a draw in their last match.
The model's selection is the home win at 64% probability, with the away win at 16% and draw at 20%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, with a 87.4% probability, and notes a 10% edge in this selection.
Results analysis
FC Fredericia's home win streak continued, with their latest draw extending their run of four consecutive draws. In a surprising turn of events, the home side failed to secure a win against Vendsyssel FF, with the final score ending 1-1. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's selection was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 64% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 87.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Fredericia win✗ Miss
64.2%
Avg Implied 56.3% · @ 1.64
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
Bet365
1.65
10Bet
1.64
Draw✓ Hit
19.9%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.92
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.26
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Vendsyssel FF win✗ Miss
15.8%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.53
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.70
Dafabet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.61
BetVictor
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Fredericia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.93
1.36
2.00
1.75
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.71
1.00
3.00
1.75
2.50
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.90
1.30
1.90
1.40
1.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vendsyssel FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.50
0.94
1.44
1.36
1.57
vs Stronger (30)
1.13
1.50
0.94
1.44
1.36
1.57
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
@ 1.20+9.6%
Under 1.5
12.6%
@ 4.19-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.46
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.65+11.7%
Under 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.15-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.8%
@ 2.60+11.2%
Under 3.5
53.2%
@ 1.44-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
BetVictor
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.4%
@ 1.65+6.4%
No
37.6%
@ 2.10-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.70
Superbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
No
Betfair
2.20
William Hil
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
888Sport
2.15
1xBet
2.11
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%@ 7.25+3.5%
1-1 ✓
8.8%@ 7.03+2.6%
2-0
8.4%@ 7.91+2.9%
3-1
7.6%@ 11.05+3.6%
3-0
6.7%@ 11.79+3.0%
1-0
6.3%@ 7.37+0.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 12.77+2.0%
1-2
4.6%@ 13.32+1.3%
FC Fredericia goals ↓
Vendsyssel FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
1
6.3%
8.8%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.4%
9.6%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.6%
4.3%
1.6%
0.5%
4
4.0%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Fredericia goals (down), columns = Vendsyssel FF goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
FC Fredericia is 0.17 points better than Vendsyssel FF in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
FC Fredericia is 0.33 goals better than Vendsyssel FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
FC Fredericia is 0.67 goals better than Vendsyssel FF in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Fredericia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.71
0.93
0.88
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.90
0.80
0.90
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vendsyssel FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.44
0.75
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (30)
0.57
0.90
0.44
0.75
0.71
1.07
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Fredericia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.64
1.07
0.88
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.57
0.33
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vendsyssel FF) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vendsyssel FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.69
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (30)
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.69
0.64
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Fredericia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Fredericia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Fredericia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vendsyssel FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+9.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Fredericia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Friday Etim29%
Oscar Buch27%
Sofus Johannesen27%
Jonatan Lindekilde24%
Agon Mucolli19%
Gustav Marcussen14%
Felix Winther11%
Svenn Crone10%
Patrick Egelund7%
Anders Dahl6%
Emilio Simonsen5%
William Madsen5%
Eskild Dall4%
Jeppe Kudsk4%
Jakob Jessen3%
Moses Opondo0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Haarbo33%
Jeppe Kudsk26%
Emilio Simonsen25%
Friday Etim21%
Svenn Crone20%
Felix Winther19%
Moses Opondo12%
Oscar Buch9%
Eskild Dall9%
Andreas Pyndt7%
Adam Nygaard7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Daniel Kristjansson6%
Jakob Jessen6%
William Madsen5%
Sofus Johannesen5%
Gustav Marcussen3%
Frederik Rieper3%
Patrick Egelund0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jonatan Lindekilde0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Kristjansson19%
Emilio Simonsen15%
Jakob Jessen12%
Jonatan Lindekilde12%
Andreas Pyndt11%
Sofus Johannesen9%
Eskild Dall9%
Felix Winther7%
Friday Etim7%
Gustav Marcussen7%
Patrick Egelund7%
Agon Mucolli6%
Moses Opondo6%
Anders Dahl6%
William Madsen5%
Oscar Buch5%
Adam Nygaard4%
Svenn Crone0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Friday Etim43%
Oscar Buch23%
Sofus Johannesen23%
Jonatan Lindekilde18%
Agon Mucolli12%
Emilio Simonsen10%
Felix Winther4%
Moses Opondo0%
Patrick Egelund0%
Andreas Pyndt0%
Svenn Crone0%
Gustav Marcussen0%
Kristian Pedersen0%
Mattias Lamhauge0%
Valdemar Birksø0%
Etienne Green0%
Anders Dahl0%
Eskild Dall0%
William Madsen0%
Frederik Rieper0%
Daniel Kristjansson0%
Elias Hansborg0%
Daniel Haarbo0%
Jeppe Kudsk0%
Martin Huldahl0%
Jakob Jessen0%
Malthe Ladefoged0%
Adam Nygaard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
FC Fredericia's squad is €7m more valuable than Vendsyssel FF's (€8m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
FC Fredericia's attack is €2m more valuable than Vendsyssel FF's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
FC Fredericia's midfield is €2m more valuable than Vendsyssel FF's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
FC Fredericia's defence is €3m more valuable than Vendsyssel FF's (€3m vs €0m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →