Defensive solidity is the headline of this low-scoring fixture. The model projects a tight 2-goal encounter, with the most likely total at two and a 28% chance of that figure. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.9% probability, and the model’s pick is an away win. Dinamo Minsk, playing away against a weaker side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded, while FC Gomel’s home form is not detailed but the defensive numbers suggest a cautious approach. The probabilities for the match outcome are 32% for a home win, 33% for a draw, and 34% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 91.7%, Under 3.5 goals at 85.4%, Under 4.5 cards at 81.7% (missed), and Over 8.5 corners at 73.6%. The recent form notes that Gomel are coming off a win, whereas Dinamo Minsk are after two straight defeats. This sets the stage for a narrow contest where the away side is favoured to edge out a win.
Results analysis
The match finished 0-1 in favour of Dinamo Minsk, extending their recent win streak after a hard-fought away outing. The model’s pre-match favourite was an away win at 34 percent, and this call proved correct. The prediction of the most likely total of 2 goals fell short of reality, but the model’s selections were largely on target. Under 5.5 cards hit at 91.7 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 85.4 percent, while Under 4.5 cards missed at 81.7 percent. Overall, the model’s forecast delivered a balanced assessment, with the key outcome and card predictions largely aligning with the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Gomel win✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk win✓ Hit
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Gomel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.27
0.67
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.76
1.27
0.67
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.94
0.56
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.14
1.50
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.70
2.08
0.38
1.14
1.29
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.2%
Under 1.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.8%
Under 2.5
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.6%
Under 3.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.7%
0-1 ✓
12.4%
1-0
11.8%
0-2
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
FC Gomel goals ↓
Dinamo Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
7.0%
2.4%
0.6%
2
6.5%
6.7%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.1%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Gomel goals (down), columns = Dinamo Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Neman
1.50
Belshina
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Smorgon
0.97
Naftan
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.77
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.37
FC Gomel is 0.60 points worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Smorgon
0.75
FC Slutsk
0.68
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.63
Belshina
0.50
FC Gomel is 0.51 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
Smorgon
1.38
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
FC Slutsk
1.65
Naftan
1.83
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.10
FC Gomel is 0.23 goals worse than Dinamo Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 0.90).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Smorgon
45%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Gomel
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Minsk
For 4.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 9.1 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Gomel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.5
13.2
12.0
2.7
2.5
2.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
12.0
-
12.0
2.7
1.0
3.5
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
12.6
13.2
12.0
2.7
2.6
2.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
80%
100%
67%
32%
26%
37%
-
-
-
% under line
20%
0%
33%
68%
74%
63%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.0
10.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
24.4
27.0
22.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.0
9.0
10.5
2.7
2.7
2.7
22.3
29.0
19.0
vs Similar (13)
10.0
9.0
11.0
3.2
3.0
3.3
26.0
26.0
26.0
vs Weaker (31)
-
-
-
2.7
2.7
2.8
-
-
-
% over line
43%
33%
50%
40%
46%
33%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
57%
67%
50%
60%
54%
67%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.6
Dinamo Brest
12.7
FC Gomel
11.3
Bate Borisov
10.9
Belshina
10.9
Torpedo Zhodino
10.6
Slavia Mozyr
10.3
FC Slutsk
10.1
Smorgon
9.7
Neman
9.6
Dinamo Minsk
9.5
FC Minsk
9.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.1
FC Vitebsk
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
4.9
Smorgon
3.9
Bate Borisov
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.7
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Naftan
3.6
FC Vitebsk
3.5
FC Gomel
3.5
Dinamo Brest
3.3
FC Minsk
3.3
Dinamo Minsk
3.2
FC Slutsk
3.1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.8
Torpedo Zhodino
2.8
Neman
2.8
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Dinamo Minsk
24.4
FC Minsk
19.0
Neman
19.0
Bate Borisov
17.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
62.1%
Under 9.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Gomel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.37
0.47
0.27
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.34
0.38
0.47
0.27
0.21
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.75
0.31
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.30
0.77
0.23
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Gomel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.80
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.38
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.19
0.25
0.29
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.40
1.31
0.15
0.57
0.86
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dinamo Minsk · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Steven Alfred33%
Raymond Adeola25%
Aleksei Gavrilovich20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Steven Alfred67%
Daniil Kulikov40%
Aleksei Gavrilovich40%
Vladislav Kalinin40%
Trofim Melnichenko25%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Pavel Sedko20%
Nikita Demchenko17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Rai Lopes0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Boni Amian0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rai Lopes17%
Vadim Pigas17%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Dmitri Podstrelov0%
Gleb Zherdev0%
Steven Alfred0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Steven Alfred67%
Dmitri Podstrelov20%
Gleb Zherdev20%
Daniil Kulikov0%
Aleksandr Selyava0%
Aleksei Gavrilovich0%
Pavel Sedko0%
Sergei Politevich0%
Nikita Demchenko0%
Rai Lopes0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Vladislav Kalinin0%
Raymond Adeola0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Joseph Okoro0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Boni Amian0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
FC Gomel's squad is €5m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€4m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
FC Gomel's attack is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Gomel's midfield is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
FC Gomel's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Minsk's (€1m vs €3m).
Belarus: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
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ML Vitebsk
Slavia Mozyr
Dinamo Brest
FC Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
Bate Borisov
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
Smorgon
Naftan
FC Slutsk
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Belshina