PythiaFootballBETA
FC Gomel hosts FC Minsk in the Belarus Premier League on August 9th. FC Minsk's recent form is a storyline to watch, as they're on a 4-game winning run, but they come into this match after losing to Arsenal. In contrast, FC Gomel is coming off a defeat to FC Vitebsk, and their recent form is a mixed bag.
The model predicts a home win, with a 37% probability of FC Gomel winning, 29% chance of a draw, and 34% likelihood of FC Minsk taking the three points. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability.
FC Gomel's home form is decent, with an average of 1.69 goals scored and 0.85 conceded against similar opponents. FC Minsk's away form is also respectable, with an average of 1.77 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selections include under 21.5 fouls (100%), under 9.5 corners (100% with a 42% edge), over 1.5 goals (74.7% with a 7% edge), under 3.5 goals (73.4%), and under 3.5 cards (73.2%). The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
The away team, FC Minsk, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the home team, FC Gomel, by a score of 0-1. This win extends FC Minsk's run to 6 consecutive victories. The pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, as the model's call was incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a probability of 37%. The model's selection, a home win, was not the correct outcome. In contrast, FC Minsk's win was the actual result. The model's suggested picks included Under 21.5 fouls, which was a miss, and Under 9.5 corners, which hit, with a probability of 100% and 42% edge respectively. Over 1.5 goals was a miss, with a probability of 74.7%, while Under 3.5 goals and Under 3.5 cards both hit, with probabilities of 73.4% and 73.2% respectively.
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.31 | 1.04 | 1.57 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.12 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.82 | 1.09 | 1.78 | 1.00 | 1.85 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Minsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 14% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC GomelFC MinskFC Gomel| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | 100% | - | 32% | 30% | 35% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 0% | 0% | - | 68% | 70% | 65% | - | - | - |
FC Minsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 14.0 | - | 14.0 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 |
| vs Similar (38) | 9.5 | - | 9.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 17.5 | - | 17.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 33% | - | 33% | 30% | 35% | 26% | 0% | - | 0% |
| % under line | 67% | - | 67% | 70% | 65% | 74% | 100% | - | 100% |
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.69 | 0.42 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.50 | 1.62 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1.08 | 0.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 93.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 74.7% | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.33 | +6.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 73.4% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | -2.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/09/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/04/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/09/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 06/05/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/11/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/07/22 | H | 0-3 |
FC Gomel| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 07/11/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 5-3 |
FC Minsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-4 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/10/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/10/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/09/25 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 | FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 |  Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 |  Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 |  Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 |  Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |