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FC Gomel vs FC Vitebsk Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 15:10
Final 0-1
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
Vs
41%
28%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Belarus: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FC Gomel hosts FC Vitebsk in the Belarus Premier League on August 1st, with a recent storyline emerging as FC Vitebsk has been on a four-game winning run. However, FC Gomel has struggled, suffering two straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to FC Minsk.

The model predicts a 41% chance of a home win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win, favouring a home win as the match result. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%.

FC Gomel has averaged 1.69 goals scored and 0.92 conceded at home versus similar opponents, while FC Vitebsk has averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded away from home. The model's selections include Under 9.5 corners (100%), Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Over 1.5 (76.1%), and Under 3.5 (71.7%). FC Gomel has a 41% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing.

Results analysis

FC Vitebsk's stunning 0-1 win over FC Gomel extends the visitors' run of form, with four consecutive victories preceding a loss. The actual result defied expectations, as FC Gomel, the pre-match favourite with a 41% probability of winning, failed to deliver. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggestion to back Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 71.7%. Over 1.5 goals, the model's other selection, missed by a significant margin, with a probability of 76.1%. The most likely score, 2-1, had a probability of 26%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Gomel win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.01
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.07
Dafabet
2.06
SBO
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Pinnacle
1.97
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.10
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.18
1xBet
3.18
Pinnacle
3.12
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.10
FC Vitebsk win✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.77
Edge
+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.01
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Dafabet
3.70
Superbet
3.65

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC GomelFC Gomel

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W35L00D41W10W00D30W05L31W11DH·MOL28/09A·NAF04/10A·DIN18/10H·FC 25/10A·TOR29/10A·ARS02/11H·DIN07/11A·ML 23/11H·SMO29/11H·NEM11/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.471.000.871.27
vs Stronger (7)0.711.431.001.250.331.67
vs Similar (17)0.820.821.121.000.560.67
vs Weaker (6)2.671.673.000.672.332.67
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W12L01L20W11D13L03L10W30WA·FC 27/09H·ARS04/10A·DIN17/10H·ML 26/10A·SMO01/11H·TOR09/11A·NEM22/11H·SLA29/11H·FC 04/07A·ARS12/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.431.271.201.401.67
vs Stronger (6)0.501.670.331.000.672.33
vs Similar (18)1.441.561.111.441.781.67
vs Weaker (6)1.830.832.670.671.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.1%
@ 1.43+11.9%
Under 1.5
23.9%
@ 2.57-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.63
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.51
Marathonbet
2.51
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 2.38+11.1%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.54-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
@ 4.30+7.1%
Under 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.16-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Under
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
@ 2.05+10.4%
No
44.5%
@ 1.68-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
No
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.79+5.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.40+3.8%
1-0
8.7%@ 5.59+1.0%
0-0
8.0%@ 6.62+1.5%
1-2
7.5%@ 12.59+4.0%
2-0
7.3%@ 8.50+2.2%
0-1 ✓
7.1%@ 8.34+1.9%
2-2
5.5%@ 17.10+2.9%
FC Gomel goals ↓
FC Vitebsk goals →
01234
08.0%7.1%5.1%2.1%0.6%
18.7%13%7.5%3.1%0.9%
27.3%8.9%5.5%2.2%0.7%
33.5%4.3%2.7%1.1%0.3%
41.3%1.6%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Gomel goals (down), columns = FC Vitebsk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
FC Minsk
1.70
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
Belshina
1.50
Neman
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.31
Baranovichi
1.28
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Naftan
0.93
FC Gomel is 0.40 points better than FC Vitebsk in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
FC Gomel
1.17
Naftan
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.15
Baranovichi
1.12
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Belshina
0.50
FC Gomel is 0.07 goals worse than FC Vitebsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.23).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.30
Baranovichi
1.34
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
Naftan
1.83
FC Gomel is 0.40 goals better than FC Vitebsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Bate Borisov
50%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FC GomelFC Gomel

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 0.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.0

🟨 Cards

401111213421212131304231H·SMOH·DINA·ARSA·TORH·FC A·DINA·NAFH·MOLH·NEMA·FC
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

60111152333113321206056145H·SLAA·NEMH·TORA·SMOA·DINH·ARSA·FC H·DINA·FC H·MOL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC GomelFC Gomel

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---2.82.92.8---
vs Stronger (9)---1.72.01.4---
vs Similar (32)---2.82.73.0---
vs Weaker (9)---3.94.03.7---
% over line---32%31%33%---
% under line---68%69%67%---
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---2.82.72.8---
vs Stronger (8)---1.81.62.0---
vs Similar (33)---2.62.82.4---
vs Weaker (9)---4.14.04.2---
% over line---42%40%44%---
% under line---58%60%56%---
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
15.0
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Bate Borisov
12.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Naftan
8.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
7.5
Neman
7.3
FC Minsk
2.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Belshina
5.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
Bate Borisov
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Minsk
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
27.5
FC Dnepr Mogilev
25.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
Naftan
25.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
7.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.5%
@ 1.78-2.1%
Under 9.5
50.5%
@ 1.91+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
38.1%
Under 21.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC GomelFC Gomel

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W12L00D20W10W00D10W04L11D11DH·MOL28/09A·NAF04/10A·DIN18/10H·FC 25/10A·TOR29/10A·ARS02/11H·DIN07/11A·ML 23/11H·SMO29/11H·NEM11/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.870.470.330.53
vs Stronger (7)0.430.860.750.500.001.33
vs Similar (17)0.530.350.750.500.330.22
vs Weaker (6)1.000.501.330.330.670.67
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Vitebsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L01L10W01L00D02L00D00DA·FC 27/09H·ARS04/10A·DIN17/10H·ML 26/10A·SMO01/11H·TOR09/11A·NEM22/11H·SLA29/11H·FC 04/07A·ARS12/07
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.530.870.470.47
vs Stronger (6)0.330.500.331.000.330.00
vs Similar (18)0.440.830.441.000.440.67
vs Weaker (6)0.830.331.000.330.670.33
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Vitebsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards90.2%--------
Under 25.5 fouls87.4%--------
Under 4.5 cards79.3%--------
Under 23.5 fouls76.8%--------
Over 1.576.1%1.43
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
-+11.9%✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners73.8%1.30
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
---+4.1%-
Under 3.571.7%1.16
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
---7.1%✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (50)
€10m
DB (20)
€6m
TZ (20)
€3m
NEM (22)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€3m
DB (4)
€2m
NEM (7)
€1m
TZ (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (13)
€2m
TZ (8)
€2m
DB (4)
€1m
NEM (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (24)
€5m
DB (12)
€3m
TZ (9)
€1m
NEM (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

FC Gomel vs FC Vitebsk · H/A from FG
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/25HFG Vs FC Vitebsk1-0
26/04/25AFC Vitebsk Vs FG2-0
27/10/24AFC Vitebsk Vs FG0-1
02/06/24HFG Vs FC Vitebsk0-0
30/09/22HFG Vs FC Vitebsk1-0
13/05/22AFC Vitebsk Vs FG1-1

FC GomelFC Gomel

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/07/26HFG Vs Neman1-1
29/11/25HFG Vs Smorgon3-1
23/11/25AML Vitebsk Vs FG5-0
07/11/25HFG Vs Dinamo Brest3-0
02/11/25AArsenal (Belarus) Vs FG0-0
29/10/25ATorpedo Zhodino Vs FG0-1
25/10/25HFG Vs FC Slutsk4-1
18/10/25ADinamo Minsk Vs FG0-0
04/10/25ANaftan Vs FG5-3
28/09/25HFG Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 42-1

FC VitebskFC Vitebsk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/07/26AArsenal (Belarus) Vs FV0-3
04/07/26HFV Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev1-0
29/11/25HFV Vs Slavia Mozyr0-3
22/11/25ANeman Vs FV3-1
09/11/25HFV Vs Torpedo Zhodino1-1
01/11/25ASmorgon Vs FV0-2
26/10/25HFV Vs ML Vitebsk0-1
17/10/25ADinamo Brest Vs FV2-1
04/10/25HFV Vs Arsenal (Belarus)1-0
27/09/25AFC Slutsk Vs FV0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.42
HomeWWWWD1.65
AwayLDWDL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.262.422.08
Over 1.5 %64%77%50%
Over 2.5 %40%46%33%
Over 3.5 %20%19%21%
Scored1.181.500.83
Conceded1.080.921.25
BTTS44%54%33%
Clean Sheet36%31%42%
Corners---
Cards3.073.123.00
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
Belarus: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.32
HomeWLDLW1.48
AwayWLWLW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.482.122.84
Over 1.5 %70%56%84%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %18%12%24%
Scored1.241.121.36
Conceded1.241.001.48
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners---
Cards3.143.093.18

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC VitebskFC Vitebsk512
80%
2.4
61+5
1.4
20%
20%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
0
0001.20.2
-
2Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest49
75%
2.2
103+7
3.2
75%
75%
50%
11.3
100%
2.7
33%
29.3
100%
6
2132.50.8
-
3FC Isloch Minsk R.FC Isloch Minsk R.39
100%
3.0
84+4
4.0
100%
67%
33%
11.0
50%
4.0
50%
28.5
100%
0
0002.71.3
55%
4FC MinskFC Minsk49
75%
2.2
64+2
2.5
75%
75%
0%
8.0
0%
1.0
0%
21.5
50%
0
0001.51.0
37%
5Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr36
67%
2.0
75+2
4.0
100%
100%
67%
8.5
50%
2.5
50%
21.0
50%
0
0002.31.7
50%
6BaranovichiBaranovichi55
20%
1.0
79-2
3.2
80%
40%
40%
11.7
67%
2.7
33%
28.3
100%
0
0001.41.8
-
7FC GomelFC Gomel44
25%
1.0
73+4
2.5
50%
25%
25%
7.0
0%
2.0
0%
29.0
100%
0
0001.80.8
-
8Bate BorisovBate Borisov24
50%
2.0
32+1
2.5
50%
50%
50%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
24.0
100%
0
0001.51.0
50%
9NemanNeman44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
10.0
100%
3.0
0%
26.0
100%
3
1110.81.0
63%
10NaftanNaftan34
33%
1.3
69-3
5.0
100%
100%
67%
11.0
50%
2.0
0%
22.0
50%
0
0002.03.0
-
11Dinamo MinskDinamo Minsk13
100%
3.0
40+4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
31.0
100%
10
3254.00.0
56%
12ML VitebskML Vitebsk13
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
16.0
100%
0.0
0%
35.0
100%
0
0002.00.0
-
13Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)53
20%
0.6
311-8
2.8
80%
80%
20%
9.7
33%
0.3
0%
18.3
33%
0
0000.62.2
44%
14BelshinaBelshina32
0%
0.7
26-4
2.7
100%
33%
33%
11.0
100%
1.5
0%
24.0
100%
0
0000.72.0
-
15FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
80%
60%
20%
10.3
67%
3.3
33%
23.0
67%
0
0001.02.0
-
16Torpedo ZhodinoTorpedo Zhodino40
0%
0.0
08-8
2.0
50%
25%
25%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
32.0
100%
3
0210.02.0
-
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →

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