PythiaFootballBETA
FC Gomel are expected to narrowly edge out Naftan, with a recent-form note of concern after two straight defeats. The home side's strong home form, scoring 2 goals on average and conceding none, will be put to the test against Naftan's weaker away form. Naftan, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, scoring just 0.42 goals per game and conceding 2.08.
The model predicts a home win, with a 52% probability of FC Gomel taking all three points. A draw is 27% likely, while an away win for Naftan is 21% likely. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with a most likely score of 1-1 occurring 26% of the time.
FC Gomel have a 52% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing. The model's selection is the home win, which comes with a 52% probability. Other selections include Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Under 9.5 corners (100%), Over 1.5 goals (74.4%), and Under 3.5 goals (73.6%).
FC Gomel's win extends their run of form, following a win over Naftan just last week. The final score was a convincing 6-0, a far cry from the model's expected total of 2.6 goals. The model's selection was a home win, which proved correct with a pre-match probability of 52%. The predicted most likely score was a 2-0 or 1-1 draw, with a 26% probability. The model's selection was the favourite, as predicted by the probability distribution. The suggested picks included over 1.5 goals, which hit with a 74.5% probability, and under 3.5 goals, which missed despite a 73.5% probability.
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.38 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.31 | 1.04 | 1.57 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 0.60 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.67 | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.67 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.61 | 1.28 | 2.44 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Naftan goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC GomelNaftanFC Gomel| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 29.0 | 29.0 | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | - | - | - | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 10.0 | 10.0 | - | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 50% | - | 32% | 30% | 35% | 100% | 100% | - |
| % under line | 50% | 50% | - | 68% | 70% | 65% | 0% | 0% | - |
Naftan| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (17) | - | - | - | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (33) | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 22.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 100% | 0% | 30% | 27% | 33% | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| % under line | 50% | 0% | 100% | 70% | 73% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 0% |
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.56 | 0.36 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.69 | 0.46 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.72 | 0.67 | 1.22 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
FC Gomel| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Naftan| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.25 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 0.61 | 1.22 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.5% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | -3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.5% | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.40 | - | +9.0% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/25 | A | 5-3 | |
| 16/05/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/05/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/08/23 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/04/23 | A | 1-1 |
FC Gomel| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 07/11/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/11/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 0-0 |
Naftan| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 19/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 5-3 | |
| 25/09/25 | A | 4-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Vitebsk | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 1.4 | 29% | 14% | 0% | 9.8 | 50% | 2.8 | 0% | 20.2 | 25% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 46% |
| 2 |  FC Isloch Minsk R. | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 11.6 | 80% | 3.2 | 20% | 26.2 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 47% |
| 3 |  Dinamo Brest | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 50% | 11.0 | 100% | 3.4 | 40% | 27.8 | 100% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 4 |  Neman | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 1.7 | 50% | 17% | 0% | 9.4 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 27.7 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 5 |  FC Minsk | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 19.4 | 20% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Baranovichi | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 2.7 | 71% | 29% | 29% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.8 | 25% | 28.2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 44% |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 1.8 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 11.8 | 75% | 3.2 | 50% | 28.7 | 100% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 55% |
| 8 |  ML Vitebsk | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 13.2 | 100% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.8 | 75% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 63% |
| 9 |  Bate Borisov | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 100% | 3.7 | 33% | 25.3 | 67% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 75% | 26.5 | 75% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 11 |  Dinamo Minsk | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 12.2 | 100% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.8 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 12 |  Belshina | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2.2 | 83% | 17% | 17% | 11.4 | 80% | 2.6 | 40% | 21.8 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 13 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 7 | 4 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.1 | 57% | 43% | 14% | 10.5 | 83% | 2.7 | 17% | 22.5 | 50% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 14 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.3 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 10.2 | 75% | 3.2 | 75% | 30.5 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 54% |
| 15 | Naftan | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4.2 | 100% | 67% | 50% | 10.2 | 60% | 1.8 | 0% | 21.4 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 43% |
| 16 |  Arsenal (Belarus) | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 3.1 | 86% | 71% | 29% | 8.1 | 14% | 1.6 | 14% | 20.2 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 48% |