The match between FC Gomel and Neman is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win at 41%. The draw probability sits at 28% while the away side has a 31% chance of triumph. On average the teams will produce 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. FC Gomel, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, whereas Neman, on the road, averages 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 90.1% (hit), Under 25.5 fouls at 82.5%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.1% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 78.2% (miss), Over 1.5 goals at 76.0% (hit) and Under 3.5 goals at 71.8% (hit). The game remains finely balanced, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Results analysis
FC Gomel’s home form, having just drawn 0-0 against Slavia Mozyr, was expected to carry momentum into the match, yet the game finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - Home win at 41% - unfulfilled. The model’s prediction of a 1-1 score, the most likely total of two goals, proved accurate, but the overall outcome was a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections performed as follows: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.1%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 79.1%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 78.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.0%, and Under 3.5 hit at 71.8%. The match showcased a balanced contest with both sides scoring once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Gomel win✗ Miss
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neman win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Gomel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.47
1.00
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.04
1.50
0.92
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.23
1.40
0.73
1.33
1.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.57
1.14
1.60
0.80
1.55
1.45
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.5%
FC Gomel goals ↓
Neman goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
1
8.7%
13%
7.5%
3.1%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.5%
4.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Gomel goals (down), columns = Neman goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ML Vitebsk
2.27
Dinamo Minsk
2.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.90
Dinamo Brest
1.70
FC Minsk
1.70
Torpedo Zhodino
1.63
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.63
Belshina
1.50
Neman
1.50
FC Gomel
1.43
Bate Borisov
1.33
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.31
Baranovichi
1.28
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.10
FC Vitebsk
1.03
Naftan
0.93
FC Gomel is 0.07 points worse than Neman in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
1.77
Slavia Mozyr
1.77
Dinamo Minsk
1.68
FC Minsk
1.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.50
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.40
Neman
1.37
Bate Borisov
1.27
FC Vitebsk
1.23
Naftan
1.17
FC Gomel
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.15
Baranovichi
1.12
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.90
Belshina
0.50
FC Gomel is 0.20 goals worse than Neman in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Belshina
0.50
ML Vitebsk
0.60
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.87
Dinamo Minsk
0.90
Dinamo Brest
1.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.00
Neman
1.03
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
FC Gomel
1.13
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.17
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.30
Baranovichi
1.34
Bate Borisov
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.53
FC Minsk
1.57
Naftan
1.83
FC Gomel is 0.10 goals worse than Neman in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Neman
63%
Dinamo Minsk
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R.
55%
Bate Borisov
50%
Slavia Mozyr
50%
Arsenal (Belarus)
44%
FC Minsk
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Gomel
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 0.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Neman
For 1.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 6.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Gomel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
2.8
2.9
2.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
1.4
2.5
0.7
-
-
-
vs Similar (42)
-
-
-
3.0
2.9
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
3.3
3.5
3.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
32%
31%
33%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
68%
69%
67%
-
-
-
This opponent (Neman) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
6.8
6.7
7.0
2.4
2.4
2.3
16.0
16.0
16.0
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
13.0
7.0
1.2
1.0
1.5
20.5
25.0
16.0
vs Similar (31)
2.0
2.0
-
2.5
2.8
2.1
7.0
7.0
-
vs Weaker (15)
5.0
5.0
-
2.5
2.1
2.9
-
-
-
% over line
25%
33%
0%
32%
32%
32%
33%
50%
0%
% under line
75%
67%
100%
68%
68%
68%
67%
50%
100%
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Bate Borisov
13.0
Belshina
10.9
Dinamo Minsk
10.6
Arsenal (Belarus)
10.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
8.5
FC Isloch Minsk R.
8.0
Neman
6.8
FC Minsk
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Belshina
5.3
Arsenal (Belarus)
3.6
Bate Borisov
3.5
Slavia Mozyr
3.5
FC Vitebsk
3.2
Naftan
3.1
Dinamo Minsk
3.0
Neman
3.0
FC Gomel
3.0
FC Minsk
2.9
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.9
Dinamo Brest
2.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2.7
Torpedo Zhodino
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Slavia Mozyr
29.0
Arsenal (Belarus)
29.0
Bate Borisov
29.0
Dinamo Minsk
25.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
24.0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
21.0
Neman
16.0
FC Minsk
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
44.0%
Under 9.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.4%
Under 3.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
46.2%
Under 21.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Gomel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.38
0.83
0.42
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.33
0.33
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.76
0.40
0.30
0.64
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Gomel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neman) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neman
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.38
1.20
0.50
0.91
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Gomel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Gomel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neman over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belarus: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →