FC Krasnodar are the clear favourites, the model assigning a 73% chance to a home win and picking that outcome as the most likely result. Their recent unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 1-1 draw with Fakel, shows a solid form at home, while the opponent’s away side has struggled on the road, conceding 2.88 goals per match against stronger teams. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the model’s most probable scoreline is a 2-0 victory for Krasnodar, with a 13.8% probability. The match’s probabilities read 73% for a home win, 18% for a draw and 8% for an away win. Krasnodar average 2.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded at home against weaker opposition, whereas Orenburg average 0.88 scored and 2.88 conceded away against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 7.5 (99.0%), Over 19.5 fouls (98.0%), Home +2 handicap (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (97.0%), Over 8.5 corners (96.4%) and Over 21.5 fouls (95.1%).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as FC Krasnodar secured a 4-0 win, extending their unbeaten run in the last five matches. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 73% probability and was indeed correct. Every suggested pick also landed: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.5%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Home +2 handicap at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.1%, and Under 6.5 at 97.0%. The match delivered a total of four goals, well above the model’s most likely score of 2, but still within the broader range of expected outcomes. Overall, the Pythia model’s selections were remarkably precise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Krasnodar win✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg win✗ Miss
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Krasnodar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.87
1.86
0.79
2.12
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.09
1.17
0.83
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
2.42
0.74
2.38
0.75
2.45
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.87
1.12
1.53
0.92
2.31
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
2.21
0.73
1.73
0.88
2.88
vs Similar (11)
1.45
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.8%
1-0
11.3%
3-0
10.4%
2-1
9.1%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.1%
4-0 ✓
5.9%
FC Krasnodar goals ↓
FC Orenburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
11%
8.8%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
6.9%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
5.9%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Krasnodar goals (down), columns = FC Orenburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.58
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.50
Chayka
2.33
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Lokomotiv
2.27
Amkal
2.25
Kuban Kholding
2.25
Spartak Kostroma
2.20
Ural
2.17
Tver
2.00
Orel
2.00
Mashuk-KMV
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
FC Sochi
2.00
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
2.00
CSKA Moscow
1.92
FC Rostov
1.85
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.75
Amkar
1.60
Zenit Penza
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Torpedo Miass
1.50
Temp Barnaul
1.50
Kristall
1.50
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Novosibirsk
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Baltika
1.33
Chelyabinsk
1.33
Dynamo
1.27
Znamya Truda
1.25
Akron
1.25
FC Krasnodar
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25
Akhmat
1.20
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.12
Rubin
1.11
PSK Dinskaya
1.06
Shumbrat
1.06
Fankom
1.06
Kristall MEZ
1.06
Znamya Noginsk
1.06
RWChallenge
1.06
Buryatia
1.06
Murom
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Chernomorets
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Leningradets
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Sokol Kazan
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
FC Orenburg
0.50
Fakel
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Krylia Sovetov
0.17
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Irkutsk
0.00
KDV
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
0.00
Legion Dynamo
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
FK Spartak Tambov
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Druzhba
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Veles
0.00
Enisey
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
KAMAZ
0.00
Kolomna
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Krasnodar is 0.75 points better than FC Orenburg in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Amkal
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Orel
2.67
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Torpedo Vladimir
2.50
FC Sochi
2.50
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.50
Lokomotiv
2.09
Murom
2.00
KDV
2.00
Kristall
2.00
FK Spartak Tambov
2.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
2.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Volgar Astrakhan
2.00
Ryazan
2.00
FK Sokol Saratov
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
Kuban Kholding
2.00
Zenit
1.92
Dynamo
1.91
Luki-Energiya
1.75
Chayka
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Sokol Kazan
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Tver
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.50
Spartak Kostroma
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Akhmat
1.30
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.25
PSK Dinskaya
1.23
Shumbrat
1.23
Fankom
1.23
Kristall MEZ
1.23
Znamya Noginsk
1.23
RWChallenge
1.23
Buryatia
1.23
Amkar
1.20
Ural
1.17
CSKA Moscow
1.15
Akron
1.12
Zenit Penza
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Legion Dynamo
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Anri Vladivostok
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.00
FC Krasnodar
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Kolomna
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.83
Rubin
0.78
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Irkutsk
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Veles
0.00
Enisey
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Krasnodar and FC Orenburg are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.00
Chayka
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
CSKA Moscow
0.38
Zenit
0.42
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Tver
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
0.50
Baltika
0.67
Amkal
0.75
Luki-Energiya
0.75
Tyumen
0.75
FC Sochi
0.75
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.75
Spartak Kostroma
0.80
Ural
0.83
Rubin
0.89
FC Rostov
0.92
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Irkutsk
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Broke Boys
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Cherepovets
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.00
Nosta
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Rodina Moskva
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Ska-khabarovsk
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
Amkar
1.40
Akhmat
1.40
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FC Krasnodar
1.50
Kuban Kholding
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.67
Orel
1.67
FC Orenburg
1.67
Fakel
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
PSK Dinskaya
1.67
Shumbrat
1.67
Fankom
1.67
Kristall MEZ
1.67
Znamya Noginsk
1.67
RWChallenge
1.67
Buryatia
1.67
Dynamo
1.73
Nizhny Novgorod
1.83
Akron
1.88
Zenit Penza
2.00
Murom
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Sokol Kazan
2.00
Legion Dynamo
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Nart Cherkessk
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Druzhba
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Kaluga
2.00
Veles
2.00
KAMAZ
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Kristall
2.50
Novosibirsk
2.50
FK Sokol Saratov
2.50
Torpedo Moskva
2.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Krylia Sovetov
3.67
Dinamo Bryansk
4.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
4.00
FK Spartak Tambov
4.00
Dinamo Kirov
4.50
KDV
5.00
Anri Vladivostok
5.00
Urozhay
5.00
Kolomna
8.00
FC Krasnodar is 0.17 goals better than FC Orenburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Krasnodar
For 3.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 16.6 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
For 4.9 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.7 · Total 29.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Krasnodar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.1
8.3
3.9
4.0
3.8
28.3
27.5
29.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
7.8
8.7
6.4
4.4
5.4
3.0
29.0
27.9
30.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.1
9.3
8.9
3.6
3.1
4.1
28.0
27.2
28.6
% over line
35%
39%
32%
54%
58%
50%
82%
79%
84%
% under line
65%
61%
68%
46%
42%
50%
18%
21%
16%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
10.8
12.0
4.4
4.9
3.8
26.8
28.3
25.1
vs Stronger (30)
11.7
12.0
11.3
4.4
4.8
3.9
28.5
29.2
27.7
vs Similar (20)
10.9
8.8
12.8
4.5
5.1
3.8
24.4
27.0
22.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
62%
79%
64%
81%
46%
82%
86%
79%
% under line
30%
38%
21%
36%
19%
54%
18%
14%
21%
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Orenburg
11.1
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Dynamo
10.2
Akron
10.2
Lokomotiv
10.0
Nizhny Novgorod
9.9
Zenit
9.8
Akhmat
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Ural
9.5
CSKA Moscow
9.4
Veles
9.4
Urozhay
9.3
Krylia Sovetov
9.3
Spartak Moscow
9.3
Rubin
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.1
Fakel
8.8
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
FC Krasnodar
8.4
FC Sochi
8.4
Leningradets
8.4
Baltika
8.3
FC Rostov
8.1
FC UFA
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Torpedo Moskva
6.0
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Amkal
6.0
Spartak Moscow
5.6
PSK Dinskaya
5.0
Akhmat
5.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
5.0
CSKA Moscow
4.8
FC Orenburg
4.7
FC Rostov
4.7
Fakel
4.7
Rubin
4.7
Baltika
4.6
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
FC Krasnodar
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Chelyabinsk
4.5
Veles
4.5
Lokomotiv
4.4
Nizhny Novgorod
4.4
Krylia Sovetov
4.4
Urozhay
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Zenit
4.2
FC Sochi
4.2
Dynamo
4.1
Chernomorets
4.1
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.9
Akron
3.8
Arsenal Tula
3.7
Ural
3.7
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.4
Rodina Moskva
3.3
Leningradets
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.2
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Irkutsk
3.0
Kuban Kholding
2.5
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
31.4
Spartak Moscow
30.8
Akhmat
29.2
Ural
29.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
Fakel
28.5
FC Rostov
28.0
Rubin
27.7
Nizhny Novgorod
27.7
FC Krasnodar
27.5
Zenit
27.0
Dynamo
26.7
FC Orenburg
26.4
Lokomotiv
26.3
FC Sochi
25.9
CSKA Moscow
25.2
Arsenal Tula
25.0
Akron
25.0
Krylia Sovetov
24.1
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
93.2%
Under 9.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
95.1%
Under 21.5
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Krasnodar or Draw✓ Hit
91.6%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
8%
covers FC Krasnodar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar or FC Orenburg✓ Hit
81.5%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
8%
covers FC Krasnodar + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Orenburg✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
8%
covers Draw + FC Orenburg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.7%
Under
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Krasnodar, so a minus line means FC Krasnodar give that many goals of a start and FC Orenburg receive them. At -1, FC Krasnodar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Krasnodar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar -2
28.1%
Draw -2
22.1%
FC Orenburg +2
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar -1
50.2%
Draw -1
23.0%
FC Orenburg +1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar +1
91.6%
Draw +1
6.1%
FC Orenburg -1
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar +2
97.7%
Draw +2
1.9%
FC Orenburg -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Krasnodar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.71
0.29
1.19
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.17
0.17
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.37
1.12
0.38
1.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.59
0.31
0.92
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.95
0.36
0.73
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Krasnodar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.14
0.50
0.94
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
1.00
0.67
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
0.37
1.25
0.38
1.27
0.36
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.65
0.94
0.62
1.38
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.36
1.00
0.62
1.62
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.91
1.17
0.83
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 10.5 corners
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 11.5 corners
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Krasnodar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jhon Córdoba46%
Eduard Spertsyan33%
Nikita Krivtsov24%
Victor Sá23%
Jubal18%
Diego Costa11%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Douglas Augusto8%
Gaëtan Perrin8%
Juan Manuel Boselli8%
João Batxi7%
Aleksandr Chernikov4%
Vítor Tormena4%
Lucas Olaza4%
Kevin Lenini4%
Sergey Petrov0%
Giovanni González0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Danila Kozlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Costa30%
Aleksandr Chernikov26%
Gustavo Furtado25%
Douglas Augusto21%
Sergey Petrov20%
Kevin Lenini19%
Jubal18%
Jhon Córdoba18%
Valentin Paltsev18%
Nikita Krivtsov17%
Giovanni González17%
Juan Manuel Boselli17%
Eduard Spertsyan10%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Lucas Olaza7%
Stanislav Agkatsev7%
Victor Sá5%
Vítor Tormena4%
Gaëtan Perrin0%
João Batxi0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eduard Spertsyan43%
Jhon Córdoba21%
João Batxi20%
Gaëtan Perrin17%
Juan Manuel Boselli17%
Lucas Olaza15%
Giovanni González12%
Gustavo Furtado12%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Sergey Petrov7%
Victor Sá5%
Douglas Augusto4%
Vítor Tormena4%
Nikita Krivtsov3%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Jubal0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Lenini0%
Diego Costa0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jhon Córdoba32%
Eduard Spertsyan17%
Victor Sá14%
Gaëtan Perrin8%
Diego Costa7%
Nikita Krivtsov7%
Valentin Paltsev6%
Aleksandr Chernikov4%
Douglas Augusto4%
Vítor Tormena4%
Lucas Olaza4%
João Batxi3%
Sergey Petrov0%
Giovanni González0%
Jubal0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Lenini0%
Juan Manuel Boselli0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Moses David Cobnan0%
Danila Kozlov0%
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emircan Gürlük17%
Alexandre Jesus14%
Emil Tsenov14%
Jordhy Thompson14%
Maksim Saveljev14%
Evgeniy Bolotov12%
Gedeon Guzina7%
Vladislav Kamilov7%
Danila Vedernikov5%
Fahd Moufi4%
Du Queiroz4%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Stepan Oganesyan0%
Danila Khotulev0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Artem Kasimov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Damián Puebla0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tigran Avanesyan50%
Aleksey Tataev36%
Artem Kasimov33%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri29%
Alexis Cantero29%
Vladislav Kamilov27%
Jhon Palacios25%
Danila Khotulev21%
Anri Chichinadze20%
Evgeniy Bolotov20%
Atsamaz Revazov20%
Fahd Moufi17%
Stepan Oganesyan17%
Damián Puebla17%
Gedeon Guzina15%
Jordhy Thompson14%
Stanislav Poroykov14%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov14%
Danila Vedernikov14%
Renat Golybin11%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy5%
Du Queiroz4%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Maksim Saveljev0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Emircan Gürlük0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordhy Thompson14%
Ruslan Kul11%
Stepan Oganesyan8%
Du Queiroz8%
Artem Kasimov7%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy5%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri4%
Danila Khotulev4%
Emircan Gürlük4%
Gedeon Guzina4%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Vladislav Kamilov0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Maksim Saveljev0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Damián Puebla0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordhy Thompson21%
Emircan Gürlük21%
Fahd Moufi12%
Aleksey Tataev9%
Maksim Saveljev9%
Du Queiroz8%
Damián Puebla8%
Danila Khotulev4%
Evgeniy Bolotov4%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri0%
Vladislav Kamilov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Stepan Oganesyan0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Artem Kasimov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Krasnodar's squad is €96m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€114m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Krasnodar's attack is €26m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€34m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Krasnodar's midfield is €32m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€35m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Krasnodar's defence is €38m more valuable than FC Orenburg's (€45m vs €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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Zenit
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akron
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
Ural