FC Krasnodar are the clear favourites, with a 61% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a Rostov win. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries an 11% probability. Krasnodar, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded, while Rostov, on the road against a stronger side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 97.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 94.5%, Home +2 handicap at 94.5%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.7%. Krasnodar’s recent form, a four-game winning streak, and a 1-0 win over Dinamo Makhachkala, contrast with Rostov’s recent loss, a 1-4 defeat to Akhmat.
Results analysis
FC Krasnodar extended their five-game winning run with a 1-0 victory over FC Rostov, confirming the model’s home-win pick. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 61% probability and proved correct. The match’s 1-0 outcome matched the most likely score of 2-0 and 2-1, though the model’s 2-goal expectation was not reached. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit with a 99.5% probability, Under 7.5 hit at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.0%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.5%, Home +2 handicap hit at 94.5%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 94.2%. The model’s predictions largely came through.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Krasnodar win✓ Hit
61.1%
Avg Implied 53.1% · @ 1.78
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
Dafabet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.76
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.64
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.68
Pinnacle
3.65
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.60
FC Rostov win✗ Miss
15.9%
Avg Implied 20.9% · @ 4.54
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
4.83
1xBet
4.57
Pinnacle
4.54
Marathonbet
4.45
Superbet
4.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Krasnodar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.83
2.69
0.69
1.35
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.00
2.33
0.67
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (18)
2.28
0.72
2.80
0.70
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
0.86
1.07
1.50
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.22
0.70
1.10
1.88
1.38
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.9%
@ 1.29+8.0%
Under 1.5
20.1%
@ 3.31-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.48
Superbet
3.35
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.99+7.6%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 1.86-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
1.98
SBO
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.90
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
@ 3.36+5.8%
Under 3.5
66.5%
@ 1.29-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.54
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.3%
@ 1.85+3.1%
No
46.7%
@ 1.86-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
No
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 6.52+4.2%
2-0
10.7%@ 7.55+4.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.84+4.3%
1-0 ✓
9.7%@ 6.20+2.7%
3-0
7.1%@ 13.51+3.9%
3-1
6.6%@ 14.01+3.5%
0-0
6.4%@ 8.91+1.5%
1-2
4.6%@ 15.18+1.7%
FC Krasnodar goals ↓
FC Rostov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.0%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.7%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.6%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Krasnodar goals (down), columns = FC Rostov goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
FC Krasnodar is 2.17 points better than FC Rostov in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
FC Krasnodar is 0.67 goals better than FC Rostov in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
FC Krasnodar is 1.00 goals better than FC Rostov in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
FC Krasnodar is 7.3 percentage points better than FC Rostov in terms of average possession (57% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Krasnodar
For 4.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Rostov
For 4.3 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Krasnodar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.7
8.4
4.5
5.0
4.0
28.0
27.1
28.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
9.8
8.3
4.9
6.2
3.9
29.8
28.8
30.7
vs Weaker (31)
8.4
8.2
8.5
4.2
4.4
4.0
27.2
26.4
27.9
% over line
34%
35%
33%
66%
75%
58%
89%
88%
89%
% under line
66%
65%
67%
34%
25%
42%
11%
12%
11%
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.5
7.9
4.6
5.0
4.3
29.0
29.1
28.9
vs Stronger (14)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.2
4.6
5.9
26.5
29.2
23.8
vs Similar (28)
7.1
7.9
6.5
4.2
5.3
3.3
29.8
29.0
30.4
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
10.0
12.3
5.0
4.7
5.2
30.4
29.0
31.3
% over line
30%
41%
20%
64%
70%
59%
89%
100%
80%
% under line
70%
59%
80%
36%
30%
41%
11%
0%
20%
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.2
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.9
Zenit
9.7
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.5
Rubin
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
4.9
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Akhmat
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Fakel
4.1
Zenit
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.1
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.8
Akhmat
28.7
Rubin
28.6
FC Orenburg
28.6
FC Krasnodar
28.5
Fakel
28.0
Akron
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Dynamo
27.4
Zenit
27.3
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
33.4%
@ 2.10-10.7%
Under 9.5
66.6%
@ 1.66+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.1%
Under 3.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.1%
Under 21.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Krasnodar or Draw✓ Hit
84.1%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.19
Edge
+4.5%
61%
23%
16%
covers FC Krasnodar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.18
SBO
1.10
FC Krasnodar or FC Rostov✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+2.4%
61%
23%
16%
covers FC Krasnodar + FC Rostov
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
SBO
1.20
Draw or FC Rostov✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.06
Edge
-6.9%
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + FC Rostov
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.22
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.4%
@ 1.18+7.0%
Under
13.6%
@ 4.53-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Under
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.40
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.2%
@ 1.91+9.7%
Under
40.8%
@ 1.87-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.90
Superbet
1.83
Under
Superbet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.1%
@ 3.91+8.2%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.23-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.17
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
Superbet
3.70
Under
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
FC Krasnodar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 8.53+3.3%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.04-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
FC Rostov over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.5%
@ 1.54-0.3%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.40+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
FC Rostov over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.8%
@ 3.60-2.3%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.27+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.78
Marathonbet
3.62
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
FC Rostov over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 9.93-2.6%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Superbet
9.70
Marathonbet
9.60
Under
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
FC Rostov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 30.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Krasnodar, so a minus line means FC Krasnodar give that many goals of a start and FC Rostov receive them. At -1, FC Krasnodar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Krasnodar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Rostov
FC Krasnodar -2
18.9%
@ 6.03+4.0%
Draw -2
19.0%
@ 4.97+1.1%
FC Rostov +2
62.1%
@ 1.33-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
5.90
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
4.80
Away
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
Handicap -1 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: Draw
FC Krasnodar -1
37.9%
@ 3.06+8.5%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 3.45-2.8%
FC Rostov +1
38.9%
@ 2.02-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.18
Superbet
2.95
Draw
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Handicap +1 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar +1
84.1%
@ 1.23+10.4%
Draw +1
10.3%
@ 5.65-5.7%
FC Rostov -1
5.5%
@ 8.90-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Away
Marathonbet
8.90
Handicap +2 (FC Krasnodar)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Krasnodar +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.1%
FC Rostov -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Krasnodar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.00
0.31
0.65
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.39
1.10
0.30
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.43
0.64
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.61
0.30
0.60
1.12
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.41+9.5%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 2.83-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.87
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.9%
@ 2.90+5.5%
Under 1.5
62.1%
@ 1.39-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Superbet
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 6.83+1.5%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.07-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Superbet
6.60
Under
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
62.2%
@ 1.80+10.4%
Under
37.8%
@ 1.94-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
26.2%
@ 5.00+7.7%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.14-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 14.00+0.3%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.5%
@ 2.70-4.1%
Under
69.5%
@ 1.43+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 10.05-3.4%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.70
Under
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 40.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Krasnodar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.40
1.69
0.38
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.50
1.67
0.33
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.33
1.70
0.40
1.12
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.43
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.61
0.40
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.24+7.4%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 3.72-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Under
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.9%
@ 2.18+7.6%
Under 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.66-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.6%
@ 4.67+4.7%
Under 2.5
75.4%
@ 1.16-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Under
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
74.8%
@ 1.53+14.4%
Under
25.2%
@ 2.33-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Under
1xBet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.7%
@ 3.56+7.7%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.25-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Under
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 9.45+3.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.02-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.40
Under
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 2.20-8.3%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.60+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 7.33-5.5%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.05+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.20
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 26.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.02
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.05
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.4%
1.18
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.8%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.7%
1.20
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
-
-
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.1%
1.19
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.18
SBO
1.10
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.8%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
77.4%
1.36
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.0%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
SBO
1.20
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
1.41
Marathonbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
-
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.2%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.8%
1.53
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
-
-
-
+14.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.8%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Krasnodar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jubal50%
Nikita Krivtsov50%
Christian33%
Juan Boselli25%
Lucas Olaza17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Augusto Douglas0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Dmitry Vorobyev0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Pina0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jubal50%
Augusto Douglas40%
Nikita Krivtsov25%
Daniil Utkin20%
Aleksandr Chernikov17%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Ilya Vakhaniya17%
Lucas Olaza17%
Christian17%
Stanislav Agkatsev17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Kevin Pina0%
Juan Boselli0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian33%
Juan Boselli25%
Nikita Krivtsov25%
Augusto Douglas20%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Lucas Olaza17%
Kevin Pina17%
João Batxi17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Jubal0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikita Krivtsov75%
Juan Boselli25%
Jubal17%
Dmitry Vorobyev17%
Magomed Ozdoev0%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Daniil Utkin0%
Augusto Douglas0%
Vítor Tormena0%
Ilya Vakhaniya0%
Lucas Olaza0%
Christian0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Pina0%
João Batxi0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
FC Rostov
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Timur Suleymanov33%
Daniil Shantaliy33%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Viktor Melekhin17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Olakunle Olusegun0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantin Kuchaev50%
Oumar Sako50%
Viktor Melekhin50%
Ygor Nogueira33%
Aleksey Mironov17%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Danila Prokhin0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Konstantin Kuchaev33%
Andrey Langovich33%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Ivan Komarov0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Timur Suleymanov33%
Olakunle Olusegun33%
Ivan Komarov33%
Maksim Mukhin25%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Ronaldo0%
Andrey Langovich0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
FC Krasnodar's squad is €82m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€114m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
FC Krasnodar's attack is €20m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€34m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
FC Krasnodar's midfield is €30m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€35m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
FC Krasnodar's defence is €31m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€45m vs €13m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel