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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare Result & Analysis

Date: 08/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
77%
16%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn winβœ“ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawβœ— Miss
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare winβœ— Miss
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W11D40W42W03L50W32W21W21W10WA·TAM19/10H·NΓ•M22/10A·KAL27/10H·FLO03/11A·PAI09/11H·LAA28/02A·TAM08/03A·VAP15/03H·KAL30/03A·TRA05/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.772.000.532.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.781.562.000.801.502.50
vs Weaker (21)2.240.432.000.402.450.45
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W12L03L12L20W12L20W12L05L14LH·TAL19/10A·TAM22/10A·FLO26/10H·KAL02/11A·TRA09/11H·PAI02/03A·TRA08/03H·LAA16/03A·FLO29/03A·TAL05/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.831.141.571.192.06
vs Stronger (13)0.692.540.832.170.572.86
vs Similar (17)1.531.291.381.121.671.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%413%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
3-0
10.4%
2-1 βœ“
8.8%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.4%
4-0
6.8%
4-1
5.1%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
01234
04.1%1.9%0.9%0.2%0.0%
18.3%7.4%2.5%0.6%0.1%
212%8.8%3.3%0.8%0.2%
310%7.7%2.9%0.7%0.1%
46.8%5.1%1.9%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).

πŸ’ͺ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

πŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.30 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 0.89).

βš”οΈ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.55 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (2.47 vs 0.92).

πŸ›‘οΈ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.76 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

πŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

πŸ₯… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

βš–οΈ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D20W11D02L20W21W01L20W00DA·TAM19/10H·NΓ•M22/10A·KAL27/10H·FLO03/11A·PAI09/11H·LAA28/02A·TAM08/03A·VAP15/03H·KAL30/03A·TRA05/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.370.870.131.130.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.891.000.200.751.75
vs Weaker (21)1.050.140.800.101.270.18
Clean sheet %77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W01L01L00D00D10W11D01L11DH·TAL19/10A·TAM22/10A·FLO26/10H·KAL02/11A·TRA09/11H·PAI02/03A·TRA08/03H·LAA16/03A·FLO29/03A·TAL05/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.730.430.640.620.81
vs Stronger (13)0.311.150.171.000.431.29
vs Similar (17)0.710.410.620.380.780.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D20W31W01L30W11D20W01L10WA·TAM19/10H·NΓ•M22/10A·KAL27/10H·FLO03/11A·PAI09/11H·LAA28/02A·TAM08/03A·VAP15/03H·KAL30/03A·TRA05/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.401.130.401.070.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.671.000.600.750.75
vs Weaker (21)1.190.291.200.301.180.27
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L02L11D20W12L10W01L04L03LH·TAL19/10A·TAM22/10A·FLO26/10H·KAL02/11A·TRA09/11H·PAI02/03A·TRA08/03H·LAA16/03A·FLO29/03A·TAL05/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.100.710.930.561.25
vs Stronger (13)0.381.380.671.170.141.57
vs Similar (17)0.820.880.750.750.891.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ₯… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

πŸ”₯ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.7%-------βœ“ Hit
Home win76.9%-------βœ“ Hit

πŸ’° 14. Squad value

πŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €3m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€4m vs €1m).

βš”οΈ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

πŸ›‘οΈ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).

🀝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
FLT wins
1
Draws
1
KUR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Kuressaare · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/24AKuressaare Vs FLT0-1
21/07/24HFLT Vs Kuressaare0-0
01/06/24HFLT Vs Kuressaare2-0
09/03/24AKuressaare Vs FLT0-6
23/09/23HFLT Vs Kuressaare4-0
20/08/23AKuressaare Vs FLT2-1
06/06/23AKuressaare Vs FLT0-2
02/04/23HFLT Vs Kuressaare4-1

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-1
30/03/25HFLT Vs Kalju Nomme2-1
15/03/25AVaprus Vs FLT1-2
08/03/25ATammeka Vs FLT2-3
28/02/25HFLT Vs Laagri5-0
09/11/24APaide Vs FLT3-0
03/11/24HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn4-2
27/10/24AKalju Nomme Vs FLT0-4
22/10/24HFLT Vs NΓ΅mme United1-1
19/10/24ATammeka Vs FLT0-3

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25ATallinna Kalev Vs KUR4-1
29/03/25AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR5-0
16/03/25HKUR Vs Laagri1-2
08/03/25ATrans Narva Vs KUR0-2
02/03/25HKUR Vs Paide1-2
09/11/24ATrans Narva Vs KUR0-2
02/11/24HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme1-2
26/10/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR3-0
22/10/24ATammeka Vs KUR2-1
19/10/24HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev2-1

πŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.28
HomeDDWWW2.24
AwayWLWWW2.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%64%76%
AVG goals2.882.443.32
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored2.141.922.36
Conceded0.740.520.96
BTTS40%40%40%
Clean Sheet54%56%52%
Corners---
Cards---
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.96
HomeWWLLL1.04
AwayLWWLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%24%24%
AVG goals2.962.803.12
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored1.121.201.04
Conceded1.841.602.08
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

πŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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