FC Levadia Tallinn’s recent three-game winning streak and a 4-0 demolition of Trans Narva give the model a clear edge, reflected in a 75 % home win probability that makes a home victory the favourite. The model rates Levadia highly because their home form shows an average of 2.89 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, while Kuressaare’s away record against stronger sides yields just 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. With an expected 3.3 total goals, the most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12 % chance. The match outcome probabilities are 75 % for a home win, 17 % for a draw, and 9 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2 %, Under 7.5 at 98.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 97.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.8 %, Under 6.5 at 95.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.8 %, Home or Draw at 91.4 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 91.4 %. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted where not provided.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win
74.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare win
8.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.13
2.40
0.93
2.53
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.54
1.71
1.29
2.00
1.83
vs Weaker (17)
2.94
0.82
3.00
0.62
2.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.29
1.50
1.62
1.44
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.73
0.62
1.50
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (14)
2.07
1.21
1.60
1.60
2.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.3%
Under 2.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
6.2%
4-1
4.8%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Kuressaare goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.8%
8.0%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.1%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10.0%
7.6%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.2%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Kuressaare goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.40 points better than Kuressaare in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.60 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.67 goals better than Kuressaare in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Draw
91.4%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
9%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Kuressaare
83.1%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
9%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kuressaare
25.5%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
9%
covers Draw + Kuressaare
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Levadia Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Levadia Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Kuressaare receive them. At -1, FC Levadia Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Levadia Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -2
31.5%
Draw -2
21.6%
Kuressaare +2
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -1
53.2%
Draw -1
21.4%
Kuressaare +1
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +1
91.4%
Draw +1
6.0%
Kuressaare -1
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +2
97.4%
Draw +2
2.0%
Kuressaare -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.57
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.41
1.38
0.38
1.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.93
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.12
0.88
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.57
0.60
1.00
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
Under 2.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.77
0.71
0.71
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.41
1.62
0.25
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kuressaare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.62
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.22
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
Under 0.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.2%
Under 1.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.6%
Under 2.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €3m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Kuressaare have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Kuressaare's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Nõmme United