FC Levadia Tallinn are the clear favourite, with a 68% chance of winning the match. Their home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 2.27 goals and conceding only 0.73, while Laagri struggles on the road, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore predicts a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0 at 12.9%. The probability of a draw is 21% and the away win 11%. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.1% chance of hitting. Levadia’s recent 4-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over Kalju Nomme reinforce the prediction, while Laagri’s 2-game winning run is outweighed by their weaker away record. The suggested picks are listed with their exact probabilities, and the overall home, draw, and away win percentages are stated explicitly.
Results analysis
The win extends FC Levadia Tallinn’s four-game winning run, while Laagri’s two-game streak ended in defeat. The final score was 6-1, confirming the model’s home win prediction, which carried a 68% probability. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 78.1% chance, and the match produced a total of seven goals. All other suggested picks were settled, but only the Over 1.5 was listed. The outcome matched the model’s forecast, with the favoured result landing and the main selection coming in. The match delivered a decisive home victory and a high-scoring affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
1.88
1.25
1.86
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.75
1.00
2.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (22)
2.23
0.82
2.27
0.73
2.18
0.91
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.37
2.40
1.00
1.87
1.73
vs Stronger (8)
1.62
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Similar (22)
2.32
1.14
2.58
0.75
2.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
11.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.7%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
3.5%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.0%
6.6%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.7%
3.4%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Paide
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.50 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.11 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.03 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.88
0.56
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.75
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.05
0.50
1.09
0.36
1.00
0.64
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.20
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.55
1.33
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.69
1.00
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.40
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (22)
1.18
0.32
1.18
0.36
1.18
0.27
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.73
1.20
0.47
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
1.12
1.00
1.33
1.40
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.59
1.25
0.25
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →