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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri Result & Analysis

Date: 15/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 6-1
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
68%
21%
11%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Levadia Tallinn are the clear favourite, with a 68% chance of winning the match. Their home form is strong against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 2.27 goals and conceding only 0.73, while Laagri struggles on the road, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore predicts a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 2-0 at 12.9%. The probability of a draw is 21% and the away win 11%. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.1% chance of hitting. Levadia’s recent 4-game winning streak and a 3-2 victory over Kalju Nomme reinforce the prediction, while Laagri’s 2-game winning run is outweighed by their weaker away record. The suggested picks are listed with their exact probabilities, and the overall home, draw, and away win percentages are stated explicitly.

Results analysis

The win extends FC Levadia Tallinn’s four-game winning run, while Laagri’s two-game streak ended in defeat. The final score was 6-1, confirming the model’s home win prediction, which carried a 68% probability. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 78.1% chance, and the match produced a total of seven goals. All other suggested picks were settled, but only the Over 1.5 was listed. The outcome matched the model’s forecast, with the favoured result landing and the main selection coming in. The match delivered a decisive home victory and a high-scoring affair.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
67.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L32W11D12L00D30W20W41W20WH·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03A·TRA18/03H·KUR02/04A·TAL09/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.071.881.251.860.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.881.751.002.400.670.67
vs Weaker (22)2.230.822.270.732.180.91
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W50W40W53W04L11D02L12L01L12LH·NÕM22/10A·TUL29/10H·PÄR07/11A·FLO13/11A·FLO03/03A·KUR07/03H·TAL15/03H·KAL19/03A·PAI01/04H·TRA08/04← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.372.401.001.871.73
vs Stronger (8)1.622.001.672.001.602.00
vs Similar (22)2.321.142.580.752.001.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.1%
Under 1.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
11.5%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.0%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
4-0
4.7%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Laagri goals →
01234
06.9%3.5%1.6%0.4%0.1%
112%10%3.4%0.8%0.2%
213%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
39.0%6.6%2.4%0.6%0.1%
44.7%3.4%1.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Paide
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.50 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.64).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.11 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 0.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.03 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L00D11D00D20W10W31W20WH·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03A·TRA18/03H·KUR02/04A·TAL09/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.570.880.560.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.380.750.401.000.330.33
vs Weaker (22)1.050.501.090.361.000.64
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W10W02L02L00D01L00D01L11DH·NÕM22/10A·TUL29/10H·PÄR07/11A·FLO13/11A·FLO03/03A·KUR07/03H·TAL15/03H·KAL19/03A·PAI01/04H·TRA08/04← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.631.200.530.600.73
vs Stronger (8)0.380.880.670.670.201.00
vs Similar (22)1.090.551.330.500.800.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L31W11D01L00D10W10W10W00DH·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11H·VAP05/03H·TAM15/03A·TRA18/03H·KUR02/04A·TAL09/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.501.000.691.000.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.501.000.601.400.330.33
vs Weaker (22)1.180.321.180.361.180.27
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LaagriLaagri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W30W30W51W02L11D01L12L00D01LH·NÕM22/10A·TUL29/10H·PÄR07/11A·FLO13/11A·FLO03/03A·KUR07/03H·TAL15/03H·KAL19/03A·PAI01/04H·TRA08/04← Esiliiga AMeistriliiga →
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.731.200.471.271.00
vs Stronger (8)1.251.121.001.331.401.00
vs Similar (22)1.230.591.250.251.201.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
FLT wins
0
Draws
0
LAA wins

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Laagri · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/23ATallinna Kalev Vs FLT0-2
02/04/23HFLT Vs Kuressaare4-1
18/03/23ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-2
15/03/23HFLT Vs Tammeka3-0
05/03/23HFLT Vs Vaprus0-0
12/11/22AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-1
05/11/22HFLT Vs Trans Narva1-1
29/10/22AVaprus Vs FLT2-3
23/10/22HFLT Vs Paide1-2
15/10/22HFLT Vs Tammeka1-0

LaagriLaagri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23HLAA Vs Trans Narva1-2
01/04/23APaide Vs LAA1-0
19/03/23HLAA Vs Kalju Nomme1-2
15/03/23HLAA Vs Tallinna Kalev0-2
07/03/23AKuressaare Vs LAA1-1
03/03/23AFlora Tallinn Vs LAA4-0
13/11/22AFlora II Vs LAA3-5
07/11/22HLAA Vs Pärnu4-0
29/10/22ATulevik Vs LAA0-5
22/10/22HLAA Vs Nõmme United5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.11
HomeLDDWW1.96
AwayDWLWW2.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%57%71%
AVG goals2.843.132.52
Over 1.5 %73%83%62%
Over 2.5 %48%57%38%
Over 3.5 %30%35%24%
Scored2.022.171.86
Conceded0.820.960.67
BTTS45%57%33%
Clean Sheet52%43%62%
Corners8.508.009.00
Cards5.006.004.00
Laagri
Laagri
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.83
HomeWWLLL2.19
AwayWWLDL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%71%43%
AVG goals3.763.713.81
Over 1.5 %81%76%86%
Over 2.5 %67%62%71%
Over 3.5 %50%48%52%
Scored2.382.712.05
Conceded1.381.001.76
BTTS52%48%57%
Clean Sheet33%43%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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