FC Levadia Tallinn is the clear favourite, with a 76% chance of victory, 18% for a draw and 7% for Laagri to win. The model picks a home win as the most likely result, driven by Levadia’s dominant 2.5 goals per game at home against weaker opposition and their recent four-game winning streak, while Laagri’s away form is weak, conceding 2.67 goals on average against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable scoreline 2-0 for Levadia, a 15.4% chance. The single most likely total number of goals is 2, with a 25% probability. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 77.8% and a Home win at 75.7%. The match is expected to see Levadia score 2.5 and concede 0.5, whereas Laagri is projected to score 1.17 and concede 2.67 against this opponent. The model’s selections reflect Levadia’s strong home advantage and Laagri’s struggles away.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Levadia Tallinn, fell short of the expected 76% chance of victory, as the game finished 1-1 and settled in a draw. Levadia, riding a four-game winning streak, had been tipped to continue its run, but the result proved otherwise. The model’s other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit its mark with a 77.8% probability, while the Home win pick missed. Despite Levadia’s strong home form and a 2.5 average goals scored, Laagri’s away performance, averaging 1.17 goals scored, proved enough to deny the favourite. The prediction model’s call was therefore incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
17.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri win✗ Miss
6.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.70
2.07
0.64
1.44
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.95
0.58
2.50
0.50
1.55
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.43
1.44
1.12
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.83
0.67
1.00
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.17
1.90
1.20
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.5%
No
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.4%
1-0
12.9%
3-0
11.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-1 ✓
8.2%
0-0
6.8%
4-0
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Laagri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
8.2%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
2
15%
8.4%
2.3%
0.4%
0.1%
3
12%
6.4%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
4
6.6%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Laagri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Paide
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.50 points better than Laagri in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.11 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Flora Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.03 goals better than Laagri in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.37
1.36
0.36
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
1.33
0.33
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.37
1.38
0.38
0.82
0.36
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.69
0.44
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.00
0.17
0.33
0.17
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.71
0.29
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
0.17
0.50
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.21
1.12
0.12
0.73
0.27
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.75
0.69
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.83
0.50
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.72
0.90
0.70
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Laagri's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Laagri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Laagri's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →