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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
83%
13%
4%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
82.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
4.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W31W30W12L10W31W40W00D20W30WA·VAP10/08H·TAM16/08H·KAL25/08A·FLO30/08A·KUR17/09H·VAP22/09H·TAL27/09H·TRA02/10A·TRA05/10A·TAM19/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.601.470.472.070.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.891.001.000.200.752.00
vs Weaker (21)2.140.431.700.602.550.27
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D01L11D22D27L03L04L14L04L02LA·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09A·PAI14/09A·KAL18/09H·TRA21/09A·KUR28/09H·FLO05/10H·VAP19/10
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.632.200.622.120.642.29
vs Stronger (6)0.172.500.253.000.001.50
vs Similar (21)0.812.190.801.900.822.45
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.501.500.002.00
Clean sheet %3% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%013%122%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.3%
Under 2.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.9%
Under 3.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.3%
No
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.7%
3-0
13.6%
1-0
11.5%
4-0
8.9%
2-1
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-1 ✓
6.2%
0-0
5.2%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
01234
05.2%1.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%
111%6.2%1.3%0.2%0.0%
216%7.4%1.7%0.3%0.0%
314%6.4%1.5%0.2%0.0%
48.9%4.2%1.0%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.42
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.94
Trans Narva
1.17
Tammeka
1.17
Viimsi
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Kuressaare
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
0.87
Nõmme United
0.42
FC Levadia Tallinn is 2.00 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.42 vs 0.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.28
Kalju Nomme
2.19
Paide
2.06
Flora Tallinn
1.92
Trans Narva
1.33
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
1.28
Tallinna Kalev
1.00
Vaprus
0.97
Nõmme United
0.61
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.67 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (2.28 vs 0.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.53
Paide
1.08
Flora Tallinn
1.19
Kalju Nomme
1.22
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.58
Trans Narva
1.75
Kuressaare
1.86
Tallinna Kalev
1.97
Nõmme United
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.67 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.53 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W01L00D01L30W00D20W10WA·VAP10/08H·TAM16/08H·KAL25/08A·FLO30/08A·KUR17/09H·VAP22/09H·TAL27/09H·TRA02/10A·TRA05/10A·TAM19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.270.670.131.000.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.670.600.000.251.50
vs Weaker (21)1.000.100.700.201.270.00
Clean sheet %83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D00D01L05L01L02L00D01L01LA·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09A·PAI14/09A·KAL18/09H·TRA21/09A·KUR28/09H·FLO05/10H·VAP19/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.100.121.000.431.21
vs Stronger (6)0.001.000.001.250.000.50
vs Similar (21)0.381.100.200.900.551.27
vs Weaker (3)0.001.330.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W21W20W11D10W30W10W00D00D20WA·VAP10/08H·TAM16/08H·KAL25/08A·FLO30/08A·KUR17/09H·VAP22/09H·TAL27/09H·TRA02/10A·TRA05/10A·TAM19/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.330.800.331.070.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.330.400.200.500.50
vs Weaker (21)1.140.331.000.401.270.27
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L11D21W22D02L02L14L03L01LA·TAM11/08A·FLO18/08H·TAL25/08H·KUR01/09A·PAI14/09A·KAL18/09H·TRA21/09A·KUR28/09H·FLO05/10H·VAP19/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.100.501.120.211.07
vs Stronger (6)0.171.500.251.750.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.431.100.601.000.271.18
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Home win82.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.581.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €3m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
FLT wins
0
Draws
0
NU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/24ANõmme United Vs FLT0-1
19/06/24ANõmme United Vs FLT0-6
13/04/24HFLT Vs Nõmme United2-0

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24ATammeka Vs FLT0-3
05/10/24ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-2
02/10/24HFLT Vs Trans Narva0-0
27/09/24HFLT Vs Tallinna Kalev4-0
22/09/24HFLT Vs Vaprus3-1
17/09/24AKuressaare Vs FLT0-1
30/08/24AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-1
25/08/24HFLT Vs Kalju Nomme3-0
16/08/24HFLT Vs Tammeka3-1
10/08/24AVaprus Vs FLT1-4

Nõmme UnitedNõmme United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24HNU Vs Vaprus0-2
05/10/24HNU Vs Flora Tallinn0-4
28/09/24AKuressaare Vs NU4-1
21/09/24HNU Vs Trans Narva0-4
18/09/24AKalju Nomme Vs NU3-0
14/09/24APaide Vs NU7-2
01/09/24HNU Vs Kuressaare2-2
25/08/24HNU Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
18/08/24AFlora Tallinn Vs NU1-0
11/08/24ATammeka Vs NU1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW2.20
HomeWWWWD2.19
AwayWLWWW2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%62%71%
AVG goals2.702.193.25
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored2.021.772.29
Conceded0.680.420.96
BTTS40%35%46%
Clean Sheet56%62%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 3 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.14
HomeDDLLL1.28
AwayDLLLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%32%28%
AVG goals3.243.003.48
Over 1.5 %86%80%92%
Over 2.5 %60%60%60%
Over 3.5 %40%44%36%
Scored1.561.361.76
Conceded1.681.641.72
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3687
75%
2.4
8219+63
2.8
75%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.30.5
-
2Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3672
58%
2.0
7944+35
3.4
92%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.21.2
-
3PaidePaide3672
64%
2.0
7439+35
3.1
81%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.11.1
-
4Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3670
58%
1.9
6943+26
3.1
78%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
5TammekaTammeka3642
31%
1.2
4754-7
2.8
81%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.5
-
6Trans NarvaTrans Narva3642
28%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
58%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.8
-
7VaprusVaprus3635
25%
1.0
3557-22
2.6
69%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.6
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3634
22%
0.9
4667-21
3.1
81%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.9
-
9Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3833
21%
0.9
3875-37
3.0
84%
55%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United3615
6%
0.4
2279-57
2.8
86%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.62.2
-
11ViimsiViimsi22
0%
1.0
11+0
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.50.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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