FC Levadia Tallinn, the home side, is coming off a draw against Vaprus, while Nõmme United, the away side, suffered a defeat against Trans Narva. This high-scoring match is expected to yield 3.5 goals on average, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 9.9% of the time.
FC Levadia Tallinn has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.07 goals and conceding 1.21 goals against weaker opponents. In contrast, Nõmme United has struggled away from home, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 2.14 goals conceded against stronger opponents.
The model's selection for this match is a home win, with a 52% probability. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 result, occurring 87.1% of the time. The probabilities for the match result are: home win 52%, draw 23%, and away win 25%.
Results analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn's win extends their run of form, having come off a win and previously defeated Nõmme United 5-0. The final score was a convincing 5-0 to the home team. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 52%. The model's call was also correct as the actual result was a home win. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with a 87.1% probability, matching the expected total goals of 3.5. The most likely scores were a 1-1 draw, a 2-1 win for FC Levadia Tallinn, and a 2-0 win for the same team, with a 22% probability of 3 total goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
51.8%
Avg Implied 77.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-25.8%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Dafabet
1.19
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 13.7% · @ 6.63
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
Pinnacle
7.30
Dafabet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Nõmme United win✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 8.7% · @ 10.51
Edge
+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Unibet
11.50
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
11.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.13
1.87
1.07
2.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.33
1.38
1.25
1.71
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.93
2.43
0.86
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.63
1.00
4.19
0.94
3.00
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
0.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (22)
3.55
1.05
3.58
1.17
3.50
0.90
vs Weaker (4)
6.50
0.50
7.67
0.33
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.1%
@ 1.04-1.7%
Under 1.5
12.9%
@ 8.28+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Under
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
8.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.21-8.0%
Under 2.5
32.4%
@ 3.76+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.0%
@ 1.59-12.0%
Under 3.5
54.0%
@ 2.20+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.70
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betfair
2.38
Pinnacle
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.0%
@ 1.60+9.6%
No
33.0%
@ 2.17-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
No
William Hil
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%@ 12.90+6.6%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.74+4.5%
2-0
6.6%@ 8.26+1.5%
2-2
6.6%@ 16.96+4.1%
3-1
6.4%@ 8.50+1.5%
1-2
6.3%@ 27.96+4.8%
1-0
5.5%@ 12.08+2.0%
3-0
4.5%@ 8.05-0.7%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
3.4%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.5%
9.9%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.6%
9.3%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.4%
4.5%
2.1%
0.8%
4
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.54 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.59 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.50 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.07
0.40
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.40
1.14
0.43
1.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.50
2.25
0.75
1.57
0.21
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
1.86
0.59
1.92
0.92
1.80
0.20
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
0.25
4.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.87
0.38
0.88
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.20
0.53
1.29
0.43
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.50
1.94
0.19
1.43
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.68
0.45
1.67
0.25
1.70
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
3.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.1%
1.04
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €3m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Nõmme United's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva