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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/10/2026
Time: 11:30
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
57%
23%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win at home, with a 56% chance of triumph, 24% for a draw and 21% for Paide to come away victorious. The model expects a total of 3.1 goals, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability. Levadia’s home form shows they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opposition, while Paide, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Levadia’s recent four-game winning streak, capped by a 3-2 win over Kalju Nomme, gives them momentum, whereas Paide’s two-game winning run ended with a 2-1 loss to Flora Tallinn. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (96.2%), Home +2 handicap (91.8%), Under 5.5 (90.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.4%) and Home over 0.5 goals (86.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn win
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Paide win
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W22D12L31W11D50W21W40W41W32WA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.471.132.400.932.531.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.851.541.711.292.001.83
vs Weaker (17)2.940.823.000.622.891.00
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D31W25L10W14L02L11D41W14L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.332.671.071.331.60
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.004.000.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.561.781.752.001.401.60
vs Weaker (19)2.370.953.200.401.441.56
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Paide goals →
01234
05.4%4.0%2.8%1.0%0.3%
17.8%11%5.6%2.1%0.6%
28.8%9.9%5.5%2.1%0.6%
35.9%6.6%3.7%1.4%0.4%
42.9%3.3%1.8%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Paide goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.29 points better than Paide in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.71 goals better than Paide in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.43 goals better than Paide in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Draw
80.1%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Paide
76.6%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Paide
43.3%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + Paide
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to FC Levadia Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Levadia Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Paide receive them. At -1, FC Levadia Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Levadia Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -2
16.9%
Draw -2
17.6%
Paide +2
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -1
34.5%
Draw -1
22.2%
Paide +1
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +1
80.1%
Draw +1
12.0%
Paide -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.5%
Paide -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W10W20W01L30W11D10W11D02LA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.571.200.471.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.770.771.000.570.501.00
vs Weaker (17)1.590.411.380.381.780.44
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W15L00D11D01L01L11D11D00DA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.631.470.470.730.80
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.670.750.750.600.60
vs Weaker (19)1.370.581.800.300.890.89
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L02L11D10W20W10W30W30W30WA·TRA02/11A·LAA08/11H·FLO28/06A·TRA04/07A·VAP02/08H·NÕM09/08A·LAA16/08H·TRA21/08H·PAI26/08A·KAL30/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.571.200.471.270.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.080.770.710.711.500.83
vs Weaker (17)1.350.411.620.251.110.56
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Paide) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PaidePaide

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W10W03L01L10W30W03L21WA·KAL28/06H·VAP04/07A·LAA19/07H·KUR02/08H·RAP06/08A·RAP12/08A·TRA16/08H·NÕM23/08A·FC 26/08A·FLO30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.701.200.600.600.80
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.891.111.001.250.801.00
vs Weaker (19)1.000.371.400.100.560.67
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paide over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.5%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 6.596.0%-------
Home +2 handicap92.1%-------
Under 5.590.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals89.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals86.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals85.7%-------
Over 1.582.8%-------
Home or Draw80.1%-------
Home +1 handicap80.1%-------
Under 4.579.5%-------
Home or Away76.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Paide have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FLT wins
0
Draws
3
PAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Paide · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/26HFLT Vs Paide4-1
22/10/25HFLT Vs Paide1-2
04/07/25APaide Vs FLT0-3
11/05/25HFLT Vs Paide2-1
23/04/25APaide Vs FLT2-1
09/11/24APaide Vs FLT3-0
29/05/24APaide Vs FLT0-1
01/05/24HFLT Vs Paide1-0

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AKalju Nomme Vs FLT2-3
26/08/26HFLT Vs Paide4-1
21/08/26HFLT Vs Trans Narva4-0
16/08/26ALaagri Vs FLT1-2
09/08/26HFLT Vs Nõmme United5-0
02/08/26AVaprus Vs FLT1-1
04/07/26ATrans Narva Vs FLT1-3
28/06/26HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
08/11/25ALaagri Vs FLT2-2
02/11/25ATrans Narva Vs FLT0-4

PaidePaide

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs PAI1-2
26/08/26AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs PAI4-1
23/08/26HPAI Vs Nõmme United4-1
16/08/26ATrans Narva Vs PAI1-1
12/08/26ARapid Vienna Vs PAI2-0
06/08/26HPAI Vs Rapid Vienna1-4
02/08/26HPAI Vs Kuressaare1-0
19/07/26ALaagri Vs PAI5-2
04/07/26HPAI Vs Vaprus3-1
28/06/26AKalju Nomme Vs PAI1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.00
HomeLLWWW2.12
AwayDWDWW1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%68%56%
AVG goals3.303.083.52
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %74%76%72%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored2.282.242.32
Conceded1.020.841.20
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet34%44%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Paide
Paide
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.80
HomeLWWLW2.00
AwayLLDLW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%60%48%
AVG goals3.103.282.92
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.762.161.36
Conceded1.341.121.56
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners7.509.006.00
Cards3.002.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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