FC Levadia Tallinn are the clear favourites, their home form showing an average of 2.89 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition, while Tammeka struggles away, conceding 2.86 and scoring just 0.71 against stronger teams. The model rates a home win at 83 %, a draw 11 % and an away win 6 %, making the home victory the most likely outcome. The average total goals is 4.1, yet the most probable total is “6+”, capturing 23 % of the probability mass. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0 for Levadia, with a 9.4 % chance. The suggested picks reflect the dominance of the home side: Away under 3.5 goals98.8 %, Home +2 handicap98.2 %, Home over 0.5 goals96.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals94.3 %, Under 7.594.1 %, Home or Draw94.1 %, Home +1 handicap94.1 %, and Over 1.592.2 %. Levadia’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 win over Trans Narva, further underpins their advantage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win
79.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tammeka win
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.13
2.40
0.93
2.53
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.54
1.71
1.29
2.00
1.83
vs Weaker (17)
2.94
0.82
3.00
0.62
2.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
2.00
3.29
1.21
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
2.67
1.40
1.80
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (18)
3.22
1.56
4.33
0.89
2.11
2.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.2%
Under 2.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
4-0
6.9%
4-1
6.4%
1-1
5.6%
1-0
4.9%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Tammeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
1.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
1
4.9%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
2
8.4%
7.9%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
8.8%
8.2%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
4
6.9%
6.4%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Tammeka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.41 points better than Tammeka in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.09 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.88 goals better than Tammeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Draw
92.6%
Avg Implied -
80%
13%
7%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Tammeka
87.1%
Avg Implied -
80%
13%
7%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tammeka
20.3%
Avg Implied -
80%
13%
7%
covers Draw + Tammeka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
95.6%
Under
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
81.9%
Under
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Levadia Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Levadia Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Tammeka receive them. At -1, FC Levadia Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Levadia Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -2
41.7%
Draw -2
20.3%
Tammeka +2
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -1
62.0%
Draw -1
17.7%
Tammeka +1
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +1
92.6%
Draw +1
5.0%
Tammeka -1
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +2
97.6%
Draw +2
1.8%
Tammeka -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.57
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.41
1.38
0.38
1.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.79
0.93
0.62
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.83
0.80
1.60
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.94
2.33
0.56
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.77
0.71
0.71
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.41
1.62
0.25
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Tammeka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tammeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.50
0.29
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.60
0.20
0.43
1.29
vs Similar (18)
1.61
0.61
2.00
0.33
1.22
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tammeka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Tammeka's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's attack is €1m more valuable than Tammeka's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Tammeka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's defence is €1m more valuable than Tammeka's (€2m vs €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United