FC Levadia Tallinn are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 59% chance to a home victory, 24% to a draw and 17% to a Trans Narva win. The average goal count is 2.9, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single most probable final score is 1-1, with an 11.2% chance. Levadia, playing at home against a weaker opponent, usually scores 2.78 goals and concedes 0.78, while Trans Narva, away against a stronger side, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s selection list includes an 80.1% chance of Over 1.5 goals. Recent form shows Levadia on a four-game winning streak, last beating Kalju Nomme 3-2, whereas Trans Narva has only one win in five, most recently losing 0-2 to Tammeka. These figures shape a match where Levadia’s offensive potency and defensive solidity give them the edge, yet the game may still finish in a tight 1-1 draw.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as FC Levadia Tallinn secured a 3-1 home win, extending their four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was a home win with a 59% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, had an 80.1% probability and hit, as the match produced four goals. The most likely scoreline was 2-0 with a 10.2% chance, but the final result was 3-1. The win confirmed Levadia’s strong form at home, while Trans Narva’s away record of two consecutive losses highlighted their struggles. All selections settled as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win✓ Hit
59.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva win✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.90
2.06
0.75
2.29
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.07
1.14
0.71
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (16)
3.06
0.75
2.78
0.78
3.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.27
1.80
1.20
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.42
0.80
1.20
1.14
1.57
vs Similar (18)
2.22
1.17
2.30
1.20
2.12
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
9.4%
3-0
6.7%
3-1 ✓
6.5%
0-0
6.3%
1-2
5.0%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Trans Narva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.4%
11%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.7%
6.5%
3.2%
1.0%
0.3%
4
3.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Trans Narva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.78 points better than Trans Narva in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.00 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals scored per game (2.47 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.44 goals better than Trans Narva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.00
0.31
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.36
0.86
0.00
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
0.50
1.11
0.56
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.50
0.90
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.06
0.44
1.29
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.71
0.29
0.71
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (16)
1.88
0.25
1.67
0.22
2.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Trans Narva) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trans Narva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.07
0.73
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.92
0.40
0.80
0.86
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.67
1.40
0.70
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trans Narva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Trans Narva's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →