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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 05/03/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-0
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
75%
17%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
75.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✗ Miss
8.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L30W23L10W11D10W12L32W11D12LH·FLO04/09A·TAL11/09H·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.032.001.271.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.401.002.000.750.50
vs Weaker (20)2.300.852.670.782.000.91
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L12L04L01L17L10W01L23L01L12LH·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10A·KUR06/11A·LEG11/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.531.072.200.602.87
vs Stronger (13)0.853.690.673.001.004.29
vs Similar (17)0.821.651.331.670.251.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.9%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
6.4%
4-1
4.8%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
04.5%2.1%1.1%0.3%0.0%
18.9%7.9%2.7%0.7%0.1%
212%9.1%3.4%0.8%0.2%
310%7.6%2.8%0.7%0.1%
46.4%4.8%1.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.81 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.75 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 1.11).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.53 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.19).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W02L00D11D10W00D01L00D11DH·FLO04/09A·TAL11/09H·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.530.870.530.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.600.500.830.250.25
vs Weaker (20)0.900.501.110.330.730.64
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L02L01L03L10W00D10W00D11DH·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10A·KUR06/11A·LEG11/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.070.470.930.401.20
vs Stronger (13)0.461.770.171.500.712.00
vs Similar (17)0.410.530.670.560.120.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W21W10W00D00D12L31W11D01LH·FLO04/09A·TAL11/09H·KUR18/09A·KAL02/10A·LEG08/10H·TAM15/10H·PAI23/10A·VAP29/10H·TRA05/11A·FLO12/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.501.130.731.070.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.500.800.501.170.500.25
vs Weaker (20)1.400.351.560.441.270.27
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W02L00D14L00D01L13L01L01LH·LEG04/09H·PAI10/09A·KAL16/09A·TAL01/10H·FLO09/10H·TRA15/10A·TAM22/10H·FC 29/10A·KUR06/11A·LEG11/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.470.601.270.201.67
vs Stronger (13)0.381.920.501.500.292.29
vs Similar (17)0.411.120.671.110.121.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✗ Miss
Home win75.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Vaprus's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
FLT wins
0
Draws
0
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22AVaprus Vs FLT2-3
12/08/22HFLT Vs Vaprus3-0
16/06/22HFLT Vs Vaprus4-1
05/03/22AVaprus Vs FLT0-8

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22AFlora Tallinn Vs FLT2-1
05/11/22HFLT Vs Trans Narva1-1
29/10/22AVaprus Vs FLT2-3
23/10/22HFLT Vs Paide1-2
15/10/22HFLT Vs Tammeka1-0
08/10/22ALegion Vs FLT1-1
02/10/22AKalju Nomme Vs FLT0-1
18/09/22HFLT Vs Kuressaare2-3
11/09/22ATallinna Kalev Vs FLT0-3
04/09/22HFLT Vs Flora Tallinn1-2

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/22ALegion Vs VAP2-1
06/11/22AKuressaare Vs VAP1-0
29/10/22HVAP Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-3
22/10/22ATammeka Vs VAP1-0
15/10/22HVAP Vs Trans Narva1-0
09/10/22HVAP Vs Flora Tallinn1-7
01/10/22ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP1-0
16/09/22AKalju Nomme Vs VAP4-0
10/09/22HVAP Vs Paide1-2
04/09/22HVAP Vs Legion0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL2.05
HomeLLWLD1.90
AwayWWDWL2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%55%68%
AVG goals2.903.202.58
Over 1.5 %72%85%58%
Over 2.5 %49%55%42%
Over 3.5 %31%35%26%
Scored2.002.151.84
Conceded0.901.050.74
BTTS49%60%37%
Clean Sheet49%40%58%
Corners8.508.009.00
Cards5.006.004.00
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.31
HomeLLLWL0.61
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %8%17%0%
AVG goals3.563.613.50
Over 1.5 %75%78%72%
Over 2.5 %64%61%67%
Over 3.5 %47%44%50%
Scored0.891.110.67
Conceded2.672.502.83
BTTS56%61%50%
Clean Sheet3%6%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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