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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus Result & Analysis

Date: 22/08/2025
Time: 16:30
Final 1-3
FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Vs
58%
25%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Levadia Tallinn win✗ Miss
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win✓ Hit
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W01L01L30W10W12L20W32W01L61WA·PAI04/07H·RĪG08/07A·RĪG15/07H·LAA19/07H·SAB23/07A·SAB29/07H·KUR01/08A·FC 07/08H·FC 14/08A·TAL17/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.130.902.130.602.131.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.071.201.140.711.001.62
vs Weaker (15)3.200.603.000.503.430.71
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-821W30W12L22D00D12L22D20W21W81WH·KUR01/06A·TAL14/06H·PAI18/06H·KAL27/06H·TRA12/07A·KUR20/07H·LAA25/07A·TAL05/08A·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.271.691.501.641.00
vs Stronger (11)0.911.730.672.171.201.20
vs Similar (19)2.111.002.301.101.890.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.2%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
01234
08.6%5.1%2.6%0.7%0.1%
112%12%4.5%1.2%0.3%
212%9.6%4.0%1.1%0.2%
36.8%5.7%2.3%0.6%0.1%
43.0%2.5%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.28
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.19
Kalju Nomme
2.06
Paide
1.94
Trans Narva
1.42
Vaprus
1.36
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Tammeka
0.83
Tallinna Kalev
0.47
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.83 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.47
Flora Tallinn
2.33
Kalju Nomme
1.92
Paide
1.75
Vaprus
1.50
Trans Narva
1.47
Laagri
1.36
Tammeka
1.31
Kuressaare
0.92
Tallinna Kalev
0.89
Viimsi
0.00
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.97 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (2.47 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.86
Paide
0.89
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.03
Vaprus
1.42
Trans Narva
1.44
Viimsi
1.50
Kuressaare
1.76
Laagri
1.94
Tammeka
2.31
Tallinna Kalev
3.14
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.42 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.42).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D20W00D01L10W21W00D21WA·PAI04/07H·RĪG08/07A·RĪG15/07H·LAA19/07H·SAB23/07A·SAB29/07H·KUR01/08A·FC 07/08H·FC 14/08A·TAL17/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.401.070.130.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.470.860.000.620.88
vs Weaker (15)1.270.331.250.251.290.43
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W12L12L00D10W11D10W10W40WH·KUR01/06A·TAL14/06H·PAI18/06H·KAL27/06H·TRA12/07A·KUR20/07H·LAA25/07A·TAL05/08A·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.940.810.860.36
vs Stronger (11)0.551.000.501.330.600.60
vs Similar (19)1.110.371.200.501.000.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L01L10W10W11D10W11D01L40WA·PAI04/07H·RĪG08/07A·RĪG15/07H·LAA19/07H·SAB23/07A·SAB29/07H·KUR01/08A·FC 07/08H·FC 14/08A·TAL17/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.070.471.200.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.330.730.290.710.380.75
vs Weaker (15)1.930.271.750.252.140.29
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VaprusVaprus

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W00D10W00D02L11D10W11D41WH·KUR01/06A·TAL14/06H·PAI18/06H·KAL27/06H·TRA12/07A·KUR20/07H·LAA25/07A·TAL05/08A·KAL10/08H·TAM15/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.670.750.690.790.64
vs Stronger (11)0.360.730.170.830.600.60
vs Similar (19)1.000.631.100.600.890.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Vaprus's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
FLT wins
3
Draws
0
VAP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Vaprus · H/A from FLT
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/25HFLT Vs Vaprus2-2
15/03/25AVaprus Vs FLT1-2
22/09/24HFLT Vs Vaprus3-1
10/08/24AVaprus Vs FLT1-4
19/05/24AVaprus Vs FLT0-2
20/04/24HFLT Vs Vaprus1-1
01/11/23HFLT Vs Vaprus0-0
06/08/23AVaprus Vs FLT0-3

FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25ATallinna Kalev Vs FLT1-6
14/08/25HFLT Vs FC Differdange 030-1
07/08/25AFC Differdange 03 Vs FLT2-3
01/08/25HFLT Vs Kuressaare2-0
29/07/25ASaburtalo Vs FLT2-1
23/07/25HFLT Vs Saburtalo1-0
19/07/25HFLT Vs Laagri3-0
15/07/25ARīgas FS Vs FLT1-0
08/07/25HFLT Vs Rīgas FS0-1
04/07/25APaide Vs FLT0-3

VaprusVaprus

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/25HVAP Vs Tammeka8-1
10/08/25AKalju Nomme Vs VAP1-2
05/08/25ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP0-2
25/07/25HVAP Vs Laagri2-2
20/07/25AKuressaare Vs VAP2-1
12/07/25HVAP Vs Trans Narva0-0
27/06/25HVAP Vs Kalju Nomme2-2
18/06/25HVAP Vs Paide1-2
14/06/25ATallinna Kalev Vs VAP0-3
01/06/25HVAP Vs Kuressaare2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW2.10
HomeLWWWL2.19
AwayWLLWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%65%67%
AVG goals2.862.543.21
Over 1.5 %70%65%75%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored2.041.962.12
Conceded0.820.581.08
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet46%50%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Vaprus
Vaprus
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWW1.14
HomeLDDDW1.00
AwayDWLWW1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%23%38%
AVG goals2.802.962.62
Over 1.5 %74%81%67%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.321.311.33
Conceded1.481.651.29
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet24%15%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3682
72%
2.3
8431+53
3.2
86%
78%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3679
69%
2.2
8936+53
3.5
89%
83%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3674
64%
2.1
6937+32
2.9
81%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.91.0
-
4PaidePaide3670
58%
1.9
6332+31
2.6
78%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.80.9
-
5Trans NarvaTrans Narva3651
42%
1.4
5352+1
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
-
6VaprusVaprus3649
39%
1.4
5451+3
2.9
75%
67%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.4
-
7LaagriLaagri3636
28%
1.0
4970-21
3.3
89%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare3834
26%
0.9
3567-32
2.7
82%
53%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3630
25%
0.8
4783-36
3.6
86%
78%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.32.3
-
10Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3617
14%
0.5
32113-81
4.0
89%
75%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.1
-
11ViimsiViimsi20
0%
0.0
03-3
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

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