FC Levadia Tallinn’s form at home is a decisive factor for the model’s clear favourite, a home win. Their average of 2.89 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opposition gives the model a 70 % chance of victory, while the draw probability sits at 18 % and the away win at 12 %. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively match, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Levadia, carrying a 9.9 % chance.
Levadia’s recent 3-game winning streak and a 4-0 win over Trans Narva underline their dominance at home. Vaprus, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 1.12 goals scored and concedes 2.12, a weaker offensive output that the model exploits. The suggested selections include an Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Under 7.5 at 97.5 %, Home +2 handicap at 96.0 %, Under 6.5 at 93.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.8 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.7 %, Home or Draw at 88.3 % and Home +1 handicap at 88.3 %. These picks reflect the model’s confidence in Levadia’s advantage and Vaprus’s defensive frailties.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn win
69.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vaprus win
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Levadia Tallinn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.13
2.40
0.93
2.53
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.85
1.54
1.71
1.29
2.00
1.83
vs Weaker (17)
2.94
0.82
3.00
0.62
2.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.50
1.08
1.89
1.72
vs Stronger (18)
1.94
1.67
2.14
1.43
1.82
1.82
vs Similar (12)
2.42
1.17
3.00
0.60
2.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.5%
No
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.2%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
6.8%
4-0
5.0%
4-1
5.0%
FC Levadia Tallinn goals ↓
Vaprus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
1
6.8%
8.2%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
2
9.5%
9.4%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
8.0%
7.9%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
5.0%
5.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Levadia Tallinn goals (down), columns = Vaprus goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.29 points better than Vaprus in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
FC Levadia Tallinn is 1.09 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals scored per game (2.71 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn is 0.88 goals better than Vaprus in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Draw
87.9%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn or Vaprus
81.9%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers FC Levadia Tallinn + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vaprus
30.2%
Avg Implied -
70%
18%
12%
covers Draw + Vaprus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
91.9%
Under
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5
Over
62.8%
Under
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Levadia Tallinn, so a minus line means FC Levadia Tallinn give that many goals of a start and Vaprus receive them. At -1, FC Levadia Tallinn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Levadia Tallinn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -2
28.5%
Draw -2
20.3%
Vaprus +2
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn -1
48.8%
Draw -1
21.0%
Vaprus +1
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +1
87.9%
Draw +1
7.8%
Vaprus -1
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Levadia Tallinn)
FC Levadia Tallinn +2
95.8%
Draw +2
3.1%
Vaprus -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
1.00
0.57
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.41
1.38
0.38
1.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.90
1.42
0.75
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.89
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.82
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.92
1.80
0.40
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.4%
Under 1.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.1%
Under 2.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Levadia Tallinn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.20
0.47
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.77
0.71
0.71
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.41
1.62
0.25
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Vaprus) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vaprus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.08
0.33
0.83
0.72
vs Stronger (18)
0.89
0.78
1.00
0.43
0.82
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.20
0.20
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Levadia Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
Under 0.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.0%
Under 2.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Levadia Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vaprus over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn's squad is €2m more valuable than Vaprus's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Laagri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
Nõmme United