The model favours a home win, giving FC Minsk a 42% chance, a 31% chance of a draw and 27% for Belshina. With an expected total of 2.3 goals, the most likely total is 2, a 28% probability, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.4% chance. FC Minsk, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, while Belshina, away from home, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 88.5%, Under 3.5 at 80.3% and Over 3.5 cards at 75.1%. Recent form shows Minsk after three straight defeats, last match 1-2 to Bate Borisov, and Belshina coming off a 0-1 loss to FC Gomel. This suggests a tightly contested match where the home side’s defensive solidity could be decisive.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with FC Minsk’s run of three defeats still fresh as they hosted Belshina. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 42% probability, but the final score of 2-4 saw an Away win, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection Under 3.5, at 80.3%, also missed. Despite FC Minsk’s home form showing a recent streak of two wins after a losing run, the match ended in a 2-4 away victory, confirming the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Minsk win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Belshina win✓ Hit
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.45
1.27
1.50
0.50
1.40
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.38
1.67
0.00
1.40
2.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.09
1.45
0.86
1.71
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
-
-
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.62
0.86
1.71
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
18% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
8.8%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.0%
FC Minsk goals ↓
Belshina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.8%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.5%
8.4%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Minsk goals (down), columns = Belshina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
FC Minsk is 0.47 points better than Belshina in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
FC Minsk is 0.33 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.23).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
FC Minsk is 0.23 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Minsk
For 6.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 16.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Belshina
For 6.2 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
16.0
12.0
20.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
16.0
12.0
20.0
0.6
0.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
100%
9%
0%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
0%
91%
100%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
9.8
10.3
9.0
2.3
1.4
3.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
10.0
10.3
9.0
2.0
1.4
6.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
67%
0%
27%
14%
50%
-
-
-
% under line
60%
33%
100%
73%
86%
50%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Minsk
16.0
Slavia Mozyr
13.0
Neman
11.0
Dinamo Brest
10.8
FC Slutsk
10.3
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.0
FC Gomel
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
10.0
FC Vitebsk
9.8
Belshina
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
8.8
Bate Borisov
8.8
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
7.7
Torpedo Zhodino
7.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
7.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
6.0
Dinamo Minsk
5.2
FC Minsk
5.0
Belshina
5.0
Dinamo Brest
5.0
Torpedo Zhodino
4.7
Bate Borisov
4.7
FC Gomel
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.3
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.0
FC Slutsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.5%
Under 9.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.1%
Under 3.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.55
0.83
0.00
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.00
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.64
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
-
-
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.62
0.29
0.71
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
55% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.82
0.57
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
-
-
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.00
0.57
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
FC Minsk's squad is €2m more valuable than Belshina's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Bate Borisov
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Torpedo Zhodino
Neman
FC Gomel
Slavia Mozyr
FC Slutsk
Dinamo Brest
Arsenal (Belarus)
FC Vitebsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
ML Vitebsk