FC Minsk are favoured to win, with a 56% chance of taking the match home, 26% for a draw and 18% for a Belshina victory. The model expects 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% probability. FC Minsk, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, averages 1.42 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, while Belshina, on the road, averages only 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 92.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 87.6%, Under 23.5 fouls at 84.9%, Over 1.5 at 75.4% (hit), Over 3.5 cards at 73.6%, Under 21.5 fouls at 72.5%, and Under 3.5 at 72.4% (hit). The recent form shows FC Minsk struggling with three straight losses before a win, while Belshina has just come off a defeat. The match is likely to see Minsk edge out a narrow victory.
Results analysis
The final score of 2-1 confirmed the model’s prediction that FC Minsk would win, a result that came after the club’s recent run of three straight defeats, now extending their winning streak. The model had named a home win as the favourite with a 56% probability, and this call proved correct. The most likely total was 2 goals, with a 26% chance, and the final tally matched that expectation. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals with a 75.4% probability and Under 3.5 goals with a 72.4% probability both came in. Overall, the predictions aligned closely with the match outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Minsk win✓ Hit
56.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Belshina win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
1.27
0.73
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.92
1.42
0.75
0.69
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
2.17
0.67
1.80
0.87
2.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.60
0.00
1.00
1.33
3.67
vs Similar (25)
0.76
2.08
0.77
1.92
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.8%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.2%
FC Minsk goals ↓
Belshina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.2%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.3%
5.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Minsk goals (down), columns = Belshina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
FC Minsk is 0.68 points better than Belshina in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
FC Minsk and Belshina are level in goals scored per game (both 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
FC Minsk is 1.25 goals better than Belshina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 2.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Minsk
For 3.4 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Belshina
For 5.5 · Against 6.8 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
8.2
10.8
1.8
1.6
2.1
19.0
-
19.0
vs Stronger (9)
8.6
8.0
9.0
1.6
1.0
2.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (41)
9.9
8.2
11.2
1.9
1.7
2.1
19.0
-
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
33%
60%
28%
25%
31%
0%
-
0%
% under line
52%
67%
40%
72%
75%
69%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.9
11.2
1.8
2.2
1.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
8.0
11.3
1.4
1.0
1.8
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
11.2
11.3
11.1
1.9
2.5
1.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
64%
67%
26%
33%
19%
-
-
-
% under line
35%
36%
33%
74%
67%
81%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Naftan
13.3
Dinamo Brest
11.3
Slavia Mozyr
11.1
Belshina
11.0
Bate Borisov
10.6
Smorgon
10.4
FC Gomel
10.2
FC Slutsk
10.1
Dinamo Minsk
9.9
Torpedo Zhodino
9.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
9.7
FC Minsk
9.6
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
9.6
Neman
9.5
FC Vitebsk
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Minsk
5.1
Dinamo Minsk
5.0
Belshina
4.9
Neman
4.7
Bate Borisov
4.6
Torpedo Zhodino
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Smorgon
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.2
Naftan
4.1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.0
FC Gomel
4.0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.9
FC Slutsk
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Torpedo Zhodino
27.0
Neman
22.2
FC Minsk
19.0
Bate Borisov
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.6%
Under 3.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
27.5%
Under 21.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.60
0.27
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.44
0.75
0.33
0.31
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.07
0.27
0.80
0.40
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (25)
0.32
1.00
0.31
0.92
0.33
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.48
0.67
0.42
0.38
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Belshina) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Belshina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (25)
0.44
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.42
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belshina over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
FC Minsk's squad is €2m more valuable than Belshina's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
FC Minsk and Belshina have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →