PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between FC Minsk and FC Isloch Minsk R. sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win. The probability spread is 39% for a Minsk victory, 29% for a draw and 32% for an Isloch win, making the home side the slight favourite. The average goal tally is 2.5, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 27% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14% chance.
FC Minsk, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, typically nets 1.71 goals and concedes 0.86. In contrast, FC Isloch, on the road, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable teams. Recent form adds intrigue: Minsk have lost three straight after a 1-2 defeat to Bate Borisov, while Isloch remain unbeaten in five matches, having drawn 0-0 with FC Dnepr Mogilev.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.8%, Under 3.5 at 75.2% (miss), Over 1.5 at 73.1% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 73.1% and Over 3.5 cards at 72.2%. Each pick carries its own probability, independent of the match result.
FC Minsk’s home form had recently slipped into a three-match losing streak, yet the model still tipped a home win at 39 percent. The game, however, ended 1-5 in favour of FC Isloch Minsk R., proving the model’s favourite wrong. The predicted total of 2.5 goals fell short, with the final tally of six goals. The model’s other selections were mixed: the Under 3.5 pick, at 75.2 percent, missed, while the Over 1.5 pick, at 73.1 percent, hit. FC Isloch’s unbeaten run of five games continued, extending their winning streak, while FC Minsk’s recent form remained bleak.
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.65 | 1.45 | 1.60 | 0.90 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.80 | 1.47 | 1.71 | 0.86 | 1.88 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 35% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.35 | 1.18 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Isloch Minsk R. goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 14% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
FC MinskFC Isloch Minsk R.FC Minsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (20) | 12.8 | 9.0 | 16.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (5) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 12.7 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 75% | 50% | 100% | 15% | 10% | 20% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 25% | 50% | 0% | 85% | 90% | 80% | - | - | - |
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (20) | 10.8 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 10.2 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 13.0 | - | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 80% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 0% | 20% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 20% | 100% | 0% | 90% | 100% | 80% | - | - | - |
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.45 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 0.88 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
FC Minsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.40 | 1.40 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 45% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 1.11 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 45% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/22 | A | 2-0 |
FC Minsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/08/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/08/22 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/08/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 15/07/22 | A | 0-3 | |
| 09/07/22 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/07/22 | A | 2-4 | |
| 26/06/22 | H | 2-4 | |
| 19/06/22 | A | 4-2 |
FC Isloch Minsk R.| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/22 | H | 2-3 | |
| 27/08/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/08/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/08/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/08/22 | A | 2-4 | |
| 16/07/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/07/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 02/07/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/06/22 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/06/22 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhter Soligorsk | 30 | 65 | 67% | 2.2 | 55 | 17 | +38 | 2.4 | 63% | 40% | 20% | 11.4 | 75% | 5.0 | 75% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 |  FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 2.6 | 73% | 50% | 30% | 7.8 | 0% | 2.7 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | - |
| 3 |  Bate Borisov | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 73% | 53% | 23% | 10.2 | 62% | 5.0 | 83% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 |  Dinamo Minsk | 30 | 59 | 53% | 2.0 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 37% | 9.5 | 50% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 51 | 33 | +18 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 30% | 10.3 | 71% | 4.5 | 67% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | FC Minsk | 30 | 44 | 40% | 1.5 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 40% | 10.7 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 |  Torpedo Zhodino | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 35 | 32 | +3 | 2.2 | 57% | 37% | 27% | 8.5 | 25% | 5.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 8 |  Neman | 30 | 41 | 30% | 1.4 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 2.4 | 77% | 40% | 27% | 9.2 | 50% | 6.4 | 86% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | - |
| 9 |  FC Gomel | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 2.3 | 67% | 47% | 20% | 9.0 | 62% | 3.8 | 60% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 |  Slavia Mozyr | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 40% | 13.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 |  FC Slutsk | 30 | 32 | 23% | 1.1 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 2.2 | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10.0 | 67% | 4.4 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 12 |  Belshina | 30 | 30 | 20% | 1.0 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 2.9 | 73% | 60% | 47% | 10.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 71% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 |  Dinamo Brest | 30 | 27 | 17% | 0.9 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 2.4 | 70% | 43% | 30% | 10.1 | 57% | 4.7 | 86% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 14 |  Arsenal (Belarus) | 32 | 26 | 19% | 0.8 | 22 | 47 | -25 | 2.2 | 66% | 38% | 16% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 |  FC Vitebsk | 30 | 22 | 13% | 0.7 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.6 | 77% | 47% | 23% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.2 | 62% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 |  FC Dnepr Mogilev | 30 | 12 | 10% | 0.4 | 21 | 73 | -52 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 17 |  ML Vitebsk | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | - |