FC Minsk are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 42% chance of a home triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 30% chance for Slavia Mozyr to edge out the visitors. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Minsk’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similar opposition, while Slavia Mozyr, on the road, averages 1.45 goals for and 1.64 against. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 77.4% (hit), Over 8.5 corners at 70.2%, and Under 3.5 goals at 70.1% (miss). Recent form hints at a turnaround for Minsk after three straight defeats, whereas Slavia Mozyr comes off a loss to Neman. All figures are presented as percentages and the single most likely scoreline is stated alone.
Results analysis
FC Minsk’s win over Slavia Mozyr extended their recent run, turning a string of three defeats into a decisive victory. The match finished 5-0, a total far above the model’s expected 2.8 goals and the most likely scoreline of 1-1. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 42% probability, and this call proved correct. Its suggested picks delivered a mixed outcome: Over 1.5 goals hit at 77.4%, while Under 3.5 missed at 70.1%. The result confirmed the model’s prediction of a home triumph, even as the actual goal tally eclipsed every forecast.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Minsk win✓ Hit
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.44
1.48
1.42
1.17
1.46
1.77
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.53
1.44
1.22
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
1.52
1.15
1.54
1.33
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.57
1.17
1.50
1.45
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.2%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.6%
FC Minsk goals ↓
Slavia Mozyr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.3%
13%
7.5%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.0%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
3
3.6%
4.5%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Minsk goals (down), columns = Slavia Mozyr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.17
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.00
Dinamo Minsk
1.97
Bate Borisov
1.97
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.80
ML Vitebsk
1.50
FC Minsk
1.47
Torpedo Zhodino
1.43
FC Gomel
1.37
Neman
1.37
Slavia Mozyr
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.07
Belshina
1.00
Dinamo Brest
0.90
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.81
FC Vitebsk
0.73
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.40
FC Minsk is 0.23 points better than Slavia Mozyr in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ML Vitebsk
2.50
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.83
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.70
Bate Borisov
1.70
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.67
Dinamo Minsk
1.67
FC Minsk
1.57
Slavia Mozyr
1.40
Neman
1.30
Belshina
1.23
Torpedo Zhodino
1.17
FC Gomel
1.10
Dinamo Brest
0.97
FC Vitebsk
0.93
FC Slutsk
0.87
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.70
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.69
FC Minsk is 0.17 goals better than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.57
Bate Borisov
0.70
Dinamo Minsk
0.83
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.90
Torpedo Zhodino
1.07
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.10
Neman
1.10
FC Gomel
1.23
FC Slutsk
1.37
FC Minsk
1.43
Dinamo Brest
1.43
Arsenal (Belarus)
1.47
Slavia Mozyr
1.53
FC Vitebsk
1.63
Belshina
1.67
ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.43
FC Minsk is 0.10 goals better than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Minsk
For 5.2 · Against 7.5 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
For 6.0 · Against 7.6 · Total 13.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
12.8
9.0
16.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
13.0
-
13.0
0.7
0.0
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
12.7
9.0
20.0
0.6
0.8
0.5
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
12%
8%
15%
-
-
-
% under line
25%
50%
0%
88%
92%
85%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (25)
13.6
15.6
10.3
1.0
1.2
0.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
13.6
15.6
10.3
1.1
1.3
0.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
33%
12%
23%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
25%
0%
67%
88%
77%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.6
FC Minsk
12.8
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.8
Bate Borisov
10.8
Belshina
10.5
Dinamo Brest
10.4
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.8
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
FC Gomel
9.4
Neman
9.0
FC Vitebsk
8.8
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.5
FC Minsk
5.3
Torpedo Zhodino
5.0
Dinamo Minsk
4.8
Bate Borisov
4.7
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.4
Dinamo Brest
4.4
FC Slutsk
4.3
FC Vitebsk
4.2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
3.8
FC Gomel
3.8
Slavia Mozyr
3.6
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.8%
Under 3.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.72
0.48
0.83
0.25
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.58
0.78
0.33
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
68% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.68
0.62
0.77
0.67
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.74
0.58
0.83
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.72
1.00
0.58
0.92
0.85
1.08
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.95
0.67
0.89
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.84
0.54
0.77
0.67
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.83
0.58
0.67
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
FDM (9)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FDM (6)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
A( (5)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →