FC Minsk are tipped to edge Slavia Mozyr in a tight Belarus Premier League fixture, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% chance. Minsk’s home form shows an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Slavia’s away record against comparable teams yields 1.5 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. The probability spread is 49% for a home win, 26% for a draw and 25% for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 87.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.9% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 75.5% (miss) and Over 3.5 cards at 72.8%. The match is set to be competitive, with both sides showing similar offensive and defensive strengths.
Results analysis
The win extends FC Minsk’s recent run, turning a three-game losing streak into a 2-0 victory over Slavia Mozyr. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, came through with a 49% probability, and the pick was correct. The suggested Over 1.5 goals, at 79.9%, hit as the match produced two goals, while the Under 11.5 corners, at 75.5%, missed. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (12.2%) was not achieved, and the expected total of 2.9 goals fell short of the 2-goal outcome. Overall, the model’s selections performed well, accurately predicting the home triumph and the goal count.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Minsk win✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.60
1.00
1.53
1.87
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.67
1.46
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.53
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.46
1.57
1.43
1.36
1.50
1.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.3%
2-0 ✓
8.1%
1-2
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
FC Minsk goals ↓
Slavia Mozyr goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.3%
3.8%
1.5%
0.4%
1
8.3%
12%
6.6%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.6%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.7%
5.5%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.0%
2.4%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Minsk goals (down), columns = Slavia Mozyr goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.46
Neman
2.21
FC Vitebsk
2.00
Torpedo Zhodino
1.75
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.68
Bate Borisov
1.68
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.57
FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.25
FC Minsk
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.07
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.93
Smorgon
0.89
Naftan
0.75
Belshina
0.50
FC Minsk is 0.25 points worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Minsk
2.57
Neman
2.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.79
Bate Borisov
1.75
FC Gomel
1.61
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.36
Torpedo Zhodino
1.18
Dinamo Brest
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.14
Smorgon
1.07
Naftan
0.96
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.83
FC Minsk
0.75
Belshina
0.75
FC Vitebsk
0.50
FC Minsk is 0.39 goals worse than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.00
Torpedo Zhodino
0.64
Dinamo Minsk
0.75
Neman
0.79
FC Minsk
0.93
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.04
Slavia Mozyr
1.07
Bate Borisov
1.14
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.43
FC Slutsk
1.43
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
FC Gomel
1.71
Dinamo Brest
1.79
Smorgon
2.07
Naftan
2.11
Belshina
2.18
FC Minsk is 0.14 goals better than Slavia Mozyr in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Minsk
For 4.2 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Slavia Mozyr
For 6.2 · Against 6.9 · Total 13.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Minsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
10.7
7.7
13.7
0.8
0.7
0.9
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
13.0
-
13.0
0.7
0.0
1.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
10.2
7.7
14.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
67%
17%
13%
20%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
67%
33%
83%
87%
80%
-
-
-
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
13.1
15.6
10.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
13.1
15.6
10.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
100%
25%
13%
20%
7%
-
-
-
% under line
33%
0%
75%
87%
80%
93%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Mozyr
13.1
FC Minsk
10.7
Bate Borisov
10.5
Belshina
10.4
FC Isloch Minsk R.
10.3
Dinamo Brest
10.1
FC Slutsk
10.0
Shakhter Soligorsk
9.9
Dinamo Minsk
9.6
Neman
9.2
FC Vitebsk
9.0
FC Gomel
8.7
Torpedo Zhodino
8.5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Neman
6.4
Belshina
5.7
Torpedo Zhodino
5.4
Dinamo Minsk
5.1
FC Minsk
5.0
Bate Borisov
4.7
Dinamo Brest
4.7
FC Isloch Minsk R.
4.5
FC Slutsk
4.4
FC Vitebsk
4.2
Shakhter Soligorsk
4.2
Slavia Mozyr
4.0
FC Gomel
3.8
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shakhter Soligorsk
32.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.8%
Under 3.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.87
0.27
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.62
0.83
0.33
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.75
0.64
0.79
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.73
0.73
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.96
0.83
0.83
0.67
1.08
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Slavia Mozyr) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Slavia Mozyr
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.73
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.82
0.79
0.57
0.71
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Slavia Mozyr over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (27)
€9m
DB (23)
€7m
TZ (31)
€5m
BB (26)
€4m
SM (25)
€4m
FG (23)
€4m
NEM (28)
€4m
FIM (23)
€4m
FM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
NAF (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€3m
DB (5)
€2m
FG (8)
€2m
FV (13)
€2m
TZ (10)
€2m
BB (8)
€1m
NEM (9)
€1m
FM (9)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
NAF (4)
€0m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (8)
€2m
NEM (9)
€2m
TZ (7)
€2m
BB (9)
€2m
DB (5)
€1m
SM (10)
€1m
FIM (8)
€1m
NAF (9)
€1m
FG (5)
€1m
FM (5)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
SMO (7)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DM (11)
€3m
DB (13)
€3m
TZ (14)
€2m
SM (10)
€2m
FIM (7)
€2m
FM (11)
€1m
FG (10)
€1m
BB (9)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
NEM (10)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
FC Minsk and Slavia Mozyr have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Minsk
Neman
Torpedo Zhodino
Bate Borisov
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Shakhter Soligorsk
FC Gomel
FC Slutsk
Dinamo Brest
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Smorgon
Naftan
Belshina
FC Vitebsk