The match between FC National Ialoveni and Fălești is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but no side is clearly dominant. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. FC National Ialoveni, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, has been scoring very little, averaging 0.0 goals, but has conceded 1.5. Fălești, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.44 conceded against similar teams. The home win probability sits at 39%, the draw at 27%, and the away win at 34%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 (92.9%), Home +2 handicap (84.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.1%), and Under 4.5 (83.8%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC National Ialoveni win
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Făleşti win
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC National Ialoveni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.17
1.07
2.13
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
3.00
0.62
2.75
0.83
3.33
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.60
1.60
1.00
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
FC National Ialoveni goals ↓
Făleşti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.7%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.4%
13%
8.0%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.7%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.2%
4.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC National Ialoveni goals (down), columns = Făleşti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FC National Ialoveni is 0.77 points better than Făleşti in terms of average points per game (1.49 vs 0.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FC National Ialoveni is 0.81 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals scored per game (1.95 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FC National Ialoveni is 0.77 goals better than Făleşti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 2.55).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC National Ialoveni or Draw
66.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers FC National Ialoveni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni or Făleşti
72.8%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers FC National Ialoveni + Făleşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Făleşti
60.8%
Avg Implied -
39%
27%
34%
covers Draw + Făleşti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5
Over
39.7%
Under
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC National Ialoveni, so a minus line means FC National Ialoveni give that many goals of a start and Făleşti receive them. At -1, FC National Ialoveni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC National Ialoveni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC National Ialoveni)
FC National Ialoveni -2
7.6%
Draw -2
12.0%
Făleşti +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC National Ialoveni)
FC National Ialoveni -1
19.6%
Draw -1
19.6%
Făleşti +1
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC National Ialoveni)
FC National Ialoveni +1
66.4%
Draw +1
17.9%
Făleşti -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC National Ialoveni)
FC National Ialoveni +2
84.3%
Draw +2
10.1%
Făleşti -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC National Ialoveni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.03
0.40
1.00
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.29
0.25
1.25
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC National Ialoveni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Făleşti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Făleşti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.67
1.13
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.71
0.38
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC National Ialoveni) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC National Ialoveni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Făleşti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Oguzsport
Univer Comrat
FC Stăuceni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti