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FC Noah vs Ararat Result & Analysis

Date: 28/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
FC Noah
FC Noah
Vs
91%
6%
2%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FC Noah win✓ Hit
91.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
6.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat win✗ Miss
2.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W11D00D41W41W32W02L31W22D21WH·SHI03/08A·LIN07/08H·LIN14/08H·GAN17/08A·OLI21/08H·OLI28/08A·ALA31/08H·PYU14/09A·ARA20/09H·VAN24/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.631.132.810.622.431.71
vs Stronger (2)2.003.001.002.003.004.00
vs Similar (12)2.171.421.830.672.502.17
vs Weaker (16)3.060.693.670.442.291.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-625L24L06L11D01L03L02L24L24L06LA·PYU17/05H·FC 24/05A·ARA28/05A·GAN01/08H·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.470.921.770.883.00
vs Stronger (19)0.792.841.002.000.673.33
vs Similar (11)1.091.820.831.501.402.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

8%17%25%34%1%03%110%215%319%418%534%6+
The model estimates around 4.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (34%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.6%
Under 1.5
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
86.0%
Under 2.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.0%
Under 3.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
4-0
9.6%
3-0
9.4%
5-0
7.9%
4-1
7.0%
2-0 ✓
6.9%
3-1
6.9%
5-1
5.8%
6-0
5.4%
FC Noah goals ↓
Ararat goals →
01234
01.1%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%
13.1%2.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%
26.9%5.0%1.8%0.4%0.1%
39.4%6.9%2.5%0.6%0.1%
49.6%7.0%2.6%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Noah goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
FC Noah is 1.59 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 0.48).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
FC Noah is 1.48 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (2.26 vs 0.78).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
FC Noah is 1.63 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 2.33).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D00D31W20W20W02L10W11D10WH·SHI03/08A·LIN07/08H·LIN14/08H·GAN17/08A·OLI21/08H·OLI28/08A·ALA31/08H·PYU14/09A·ARA20/09H·VAN24/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.571.310.251.290.93
vs Stronger (2)1.501.501.001.002.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.330.581.000.171.671.00
vs Weaker (16)1.250.441.560.220.860.71
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D02L01L00D02L00D21W22D01LA·PYU17/05H·FC 24/05A·ARA28/05A·GAN01/08H·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.540.770.531.18
vs Stronger (19)0.421.000.570.710.331.17
vs Similar (11)0.731.000.500.831.001.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D10W21W12L00D21W11D11DH·SHI03/08A·LIN07/08H·LIN14/08H·GAN17/08A·OLI21/08H·OLI28/08A·ALA31/08H·PYU14/09A·ARA20/09H·VAN24/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.571.500.381.140.79
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.830.830.500.831.17
vs Weaker (16)1.810.252.110.221.430.29
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L13L04L10W01L01L02L03L02L05LA·PYU17/05H·FC 24/05A·ARA28/05A·GAN01/08H·VAN09/08A·ALA16/08H·PYU22/08A·ARA30/08A·SHI12/09A·FC 19/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.470.381.000.351.82
vs Stronger (19)0.371.840.431.290.332.17
vs Similar (11)0.360.820.330.670.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.595.6%-------✓ Hit
Home win91.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.586.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 3.571.0%-------✗ Miss

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Noah
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus AiÃĄs20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin JakoliÅĄ12%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
HÃĐlder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
HÃĐlder Ferreira10%
Matheus AiÃĄs10%
Marin JakoliÅĄ0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo SangarÃĐ0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur ÞÃģrarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
NathanaÃŦl Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
FC Noah's squad is €10m more valuable than Ararat's (€12m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Noah's attack is €4m more valuable than Ararat's (€5m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Noah's midfield is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€3m vs €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
FC Noah's defence is €3m more valuable than Ararat's (€4m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
FN wins
0
Draws
2
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Noah vs Ararat · H/A from FN
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/25HFN Vs Ararat3-0
20/11/24HFN Vs Ararat4-0
15/09/24AArarat Vs FN2-1
09/05/24AArarat Vs FN0-1
07/03/24HFN Vs Ararat4-3
03/11/23AArarat Vs FN0-2
31/08/23HFN Vs Ararat3-0
20/05/23AArarat Vs FN1-0

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/25HFN Vs Van2-1
20/09/25AArarat-Armenia Vs FN2-2
14/09/25HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan3-1
31/08/25AAlashkert Vs FN2-0
28/08/25HFN Vs Olimpija Ljubljana3-2
21/08/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs FN1-4
17/08/25HFN Vs Gandzasar4-1
14/08/25HFN Vs Lincoln Red Imps FC0-0
07/08/25ALincoln Red Imps FC Vs FN1-1
03/08/25HFN Vs Shirak4-0

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25AFC Urartu Vs ARA6-0
12/09/25AShirak Vs ARA4-2
30/08/25AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA4-2
22/08/25HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-2
16/08/25AAlashkert Vs ARA3-0
09/08/25HARA Vs Van0-1
01/08/25AGandzasar Vs ARA1-1
28/05/25AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA6-0
24/05/25HARA Vs FC Urartu2-4
17/05/25APyunik Yerevan Vs ARA5-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW2.02
HomeDWWWW2.62
AwayLDWLD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%85%38%
AVG goals3.643.423.88
Over 1.5 %86%85%88%
Over 2.5 %74%73%75%
Over 3.5 %50%46%54%
Scored2.482.852.08
Conceded1.160.581.79
BTTS54%42%67%
Clean Sheet38%58%17%
Corners8.629.757.50
Cards3.903.004.80
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.96
HomeWWLLL1.00
AwayDLLLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals3.042.423.62
Over 1.5 %80%71%88%
Over 2.5 %58%42%73%
Over 3.5 %32%21%42%
Scored1.101.001.19
Conceded1.941.422.42
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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