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FC Noah vs FC Urartu Result & Analysis

Date: 06/03/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 0-2
FC Noah
FC Noah
Vs
11%
20%
68%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Urartu are the clear favourites to lift the trophy, a rating driven by their dominant 2.5-goal average on the road against similarly strong opponents and a 68% chance of victory. The model’s pick, an away win, reflects Urartu’s home-side weakness, where FC Noah concedes an average of three goals per match. The expected total of three goals and the most likely scoreline of 0-2, with a 12.2% probability, underline the expectation of a decisive result for the visitors. FC Noah’s home form shows a low 0.33 goal output and a high 3.0 conceded tally, while Urartu’s away record boasts clean sheets and prolific scoring. The single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, an 80.5% chance, which the model hit. Home win probability sits at 11%, draw at 20%, and away win at 68%. The predictions remain firmly in favour of the away side, supported by recent form where Urartu came off a 1-1 draw and Noah were on a three-game winning streak.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows FC Noah on a three-game winning run, while FC Urartu comes off a draw. The model’s favourite, an away win, was correct as the final score was 0-2 in Urartu’s favour. The model had placed a 68% probability on the away victory, and the predicted total of 3 goals was not reached, but the single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 80.5% chance. The most likely scoreline of 0-2 had a 12.2% probability and indeed materialised. Overall, the favoured result landed and the selection largely came in.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Noah win✗ Miss
11.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win✓ Hit
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L01L12L12L22D32W20W02L10WH·BKM19/10A·FC 23/10H·PYU31/10A·ARA05/11H·ARA13/11H·VAN20/11H·ALA29/11H·LER03/12A·SHI08/12A·BKM27/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.051.091.910.702.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.333.000.333.000.333.00
vs Weaker (15)1.131.671.381.500.861.86
Clean sheet %24% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W31W21W10W00D21W03L32W30W20WA·VAN19/10H·FC 23/10A·LER29/10H·BKM04/11A·ALA10/11H·ARA22/11H·ARA30/11A·SHI04/12A·PYU09/12H·VAN01/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.860.711.361.002.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.890.671.401.202.500.00
vs Weaker (12)1.830.751.330.832.330.67
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.0%
Under 2.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.6%
Under 3.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
12.2%
0-1
10.3%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
9.6%
0-3
8.9%
1-3
7.0%
0-0
6.0%
0-4
4.8%
FC Noah goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
01234
06.0%10%12%8.9%4.8%
13.2%9.7%9.6%7.0%3.8%
21.6%3.5%3.8%2.8%1.5%
30.4%0.9%1.0%0.7%0.4%
40.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Noah goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
FC Noah is 1.42 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 2.31).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
FC Noah is 0.94 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
FC Noah is 1.14 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D01L12L10W21W20W01L00DH·BKM19/10A·FC 23/10H·PYU31/10A·ARA05/11H·ARA13/11H·VAN20/11H·ALA29/11H·LER03/12A·SHI08/12A·BKM27/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.480.860.730.820.200.90
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.171.170.331.330.001.00
vs Weaker (15)0.600.730.880.620.290.86
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W21W00D00D21W02L12L00D10WA·VAN19/10H·FC 23/10A·LER29/10H·BKM04/11A·ALA10/11H·ARA22/11H·ARA30/11A·SHI04/12A·PYU09/12H·VAN01/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.430.550.550.900.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.330.200.600.750.00
vs Weaker (12)0.920.500.830.501.000.50
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L11D00D12L11D00D01L10WH·BKM19/10A·FC 23/10H·PYU31/10A·ARA05/11H·ARA13/11H·VAN20/11H·ALA29/11H·LER03/12A·SHI08/12A·BKM27/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.190.361.090.501.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.171.830.001.670.332.00
vs Weaker (15)0.530.930.500.880.571.00
Clean sheet %29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W00D10W00D00D01L20W30W10WA·VAN19/10H·FC 23/10A·LER29/10H·BKM04/11A·ALA10/11H·ARA22/11H·ARA30/11A·SHI04/12A·PYU09/12H·VAN01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.290.820.451.500.10
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.440.331.200.601.750.00
vs Weaker (12)0.920.250.500.331.330.17
Clean sheet %76% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.5%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
FC Noah's squad is €7m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€12m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
FC Noah's attack is €2m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€5m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
FC Noah's midfield is €3m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
FC Noah's defence is €2m more valuable than FC Urartu's (€4m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
FN wins
0
Draws
2
FU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Noah vs FC Urartu · H/A from FN
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/22AFC Urartu Vs FN3-1
20/08/22HFN Vs FC Urartu0-6

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/02/23ABKMA Vs FN0-1
08/12/22AShirak Vs FN2-0
03/12/22HFN Vs Lernayin Artsakh2-0
29/11/22HFN Vs Alashkert3-2
20/11/22HFN Vs Van2-2
13/11/22HFN Vs Ararat-Armenia1-2
05/11/22AArarat Vs FN2-1
31/10/22HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-1
23/10/22AFC Urartu Vs FN3-1
19/10/22HFN Vs BKMA0-0

FC UrartuFC Urartu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/23HFU Vs Van2-0
09/12/22APyunik Yerevan Vs FU0-3
04/12/22AShirak Vs FU2-3
30/11/22HFU Vs Ararat-Armenia0-3
22/11/22HFU Vs Ararat2-1
10/11/22AAlashkert Vs FU0-0
04/11/22HFU Vs BKMA1-0
29/10/22ALernayin Artsakh Vs FU1-2
23/10/22HFU Vs FC Noah3-1
19/10/22AVan Vs FU0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW0.71
HomeLLDWW0.82
AwayDLLLW0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%18%10%
AVG goals2.953.002.90
Over 1.5 %71%64%80%
Over 2.5 %62%55%70%
Over 3.5 %43%45%40%
Scored0.901.090.70
Conceded2.051.912.20
BTTS43%45%40%
Clean Sheet24%27%20%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Urartu
FC Urartu
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW2.38
HomeWWWLW2.00
AwayWWDWW2.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%64%90%
AVG goals2.572.362.80
Over 1.5 %67%64%70%
Over 2.5 %48%45%50%
Over 3.5 %24%18%30%
Scored1.861.362.40
Conceded0.711.000.40
BTTS38%45%30%
Clean Sheet52%36%70%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC UrartuFC Urartu3683
72%
2.3
6825+43
2.6
67%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3680
69%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
72%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.00.6
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3676
64%
2.1
7027+43
2.7
72%
58%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.8
-
4AlashkertAlashkert3666
56%
1.8
5837+21
2.6
61%
47%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.61.0
-
5VanVan3640
31%
1.1
3859-21
2.7
69%
53%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
6AraratArarat3638
28%
1.1
2942-13
2.0
61%
36%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.81.2
-
7ShirakShirak3636
28%
1.0
2555-30
2.2
58%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
8BKMABKMA3632
19%
0.9
3653-17
2.5
64%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.5
-
9FC NoahFC Noah3632
22%
0.9
3466-32
2.8
75%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5340.91.8
-
10Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh3622
14%
0.6
1659-43
2.1
61%
36%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.41.6
-
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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