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FC Noah vs Shirak Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 4-0
FC Noah
FC Noah
Vs
46%
27%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

FC Noah are tipped to lift the win, with the model assigning a 46% chance to a home victory, 27% to a draw and 27% to a Shirak win. The average goal tally is 2.9, suggesting a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% chance. Noah, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, while Shirak, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.29 goals scored and 2.43 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 goals at 79.1%. The home win probability is 46%, the draw probability 27%, and the away win probability 27%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition or extraneous commentary.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows FC Noah on a three-game winning run, while Shirak comes off a win. The model’s favourite, a Home win, came through as the final score was 4-0, a decisive victory for the hosts. With a pre-match probability of 46 percent, the model’s call was correct. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, had a 79.1 percent chance and hit, as the match produced four goals. All other selections were settled, and the result matched the model’s expectations. The match confirmed the model’s predictions and highlighted FC Noah’s strong home performance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Noah win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L13L01L21W20W10W10W01L20WH·BKM01/05A·FC 08/05H·PYU15/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA27/05A·SHI31/05H·VAN04/06H·VAN29/07A·BKM04/08H·FC 13/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.431.401.270.531.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.701.801.001.500.252.25
vs Weaker (20)1.101.251.671.110.641.36
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L00D02L01L03L02L10W42W01L01LH·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05H·ARA17/05H·ALA21/05A·VAN26/05H·FC 31/05A·LER05/06A·WES29/07A·VAN05/08H·BKM11/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.530.531.471.001.60
vs Stronger (16)0.812.310.442.221.292.43
vs Similar (14)0.710.640.670.330.750.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
FC Noah goals ↓
Shirak goals →
01234
06.9%5.8%4.3%1.7%0.5%
18.2%13%7.0%2.9%0.9%
27.7%9.4%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.2%5.1%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Noah goals (down), columns = Shirak goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
FC Noah is 1.31 points better than Shirak in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 0.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
FC Noah is 1.14 goals better than Shirak in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
FC Noah is 0.36 goals better than Shirak in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L00D11D00D10W10W00D10WH·BKM01/05A·FC 08/05H·PYU15/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA27/05A·SHI31/05H·VAN04/06H·VAN29/07A·BKM04/08H·FC 13/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.600.870.530.070.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.900.500.830.001.00
vs Weaker (20)0.550.451.110.330.090.55
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L01L02L00D00D22D00D00DH·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05H·ARA17/05H·ALA21/05A·VAN26/05H·FC 31/05A·LER05/06A·WES29/07A·VAN05/08H·BKM11/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.630.330.530.470.73
vs Stronger (16)0.381.060.330.890.431.29
vs Similar (14)0.430.140.330.000.500.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC NoahFC Noah

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D01L10W20W00D00D01L10WH·BKM01/05A·FC 08/05H·PYU15/05A·ARA20/05H·ARA27/05A·SHI31/05H·VAN04/06H·VAN29/07A·BKM04/08H·FC 13/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.530.730.470.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.900.500.670.251.25
vs Weaker (20)0.550.800.560.780.550.82
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ShirakShirak

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D01L00D01L02L10W20W01L01LH·PYU02/05H·ARA08/05H·ARA17/05H·ALA21/05A·VAN26/05H·FC 31/05A·LER05/06A·WES29/07A·VAN05/08H·BKM11/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.900.200.930.530.87
vs Stronger (16)0.441.250.111.330.861.14
vs Similar (14)0.290.500.330.330.250.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
FC Noah's squad is €10m more valuable than Shirak's (€12m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Noah's attack is €4m more valuable than Shirak's (€5m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Noah's midfield is €3m more valuable than Shirak's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
FC Noah's defence is €3m more valuable than Shirak's (€4m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
FN wins
1
Draws
2
SHI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Noah vs Shirak · H/A from FN
DateH/AGameScore
31/05/23AShirak Vs FN0-2
11/04/23HFN Vs Shirak3-3
08/12/22AShirak Vs FN2-0
16/09/22HFN Vs Shirak1-3

FC NoahFC Noah

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/23HFN Vs FC Urartu2-0
04/08/23ABKMA Vs FN1-0
29/07/23HFN Vs Van1-0
04/06/23HFN Vs Van1-0
31/05/23AShirak Vs FN0-2
27/05/23HFN Vs Ararat-Armenia2-1
20/05/23AArarat Vs FN1-0
15/05/23HFN Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-3
08/05/23AFC Urartu Vs FN1-0
01/05/23HFN Vs BKMA1-2

ShirakShirak

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/08/23HSHI Vs BKMA0-1
05/08/23AVan Vs SHI1-0
29/07/23AWest Armenia Vs SHI2-4
05/06/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs SHI0-1
31/05/23HSHI Vs FC Noah0-2
26/05/23AVan Vs SHI3-0
21/05/23HSHI Vs Alashkert0-1
17/05/23HSHI Vs Ararat-Armenia0-2
08/05/23HSHI Vs Ararat0-0
02/05/23HSHI Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Noah
FC Noah
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW0.97
HomeLWWWW1.25
AwayWLLWL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%35%16%
AVG goals2.672.902.42
Over 1.5 %72%70%74%
Over 2.5 %51%55%47%
Over 3.5 %28%35%21%
Scored0.951.250.63
Conceded1.721.651.79
BTTS38%50%26%
Clean Sheet26%30%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Shirak
Shirak
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.00
HomeDLLLL0.84
AwayLLWWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%21%35%
AVG goals2.261.952.55
Over 1.5 %56%58%55%
Over 2.5 %38%21%55%
Over 3.5 %21%16%25%
Scored0.740.530.95
Conceded1.511.421.60
BTTS28%21%35%
Clean Sheet28%32%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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