FC Noah’s confidence is high after a recent two-game winning streak, and the model sees them as the clear favourite, rating a home win at 82 %. Their home form shows they average 2.88 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while Van struggles away, scoring just 0.33 and conceding 2.44 against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for FC Noah, with a 14.4 % probability. The match result probabilities are 82 % for a home win, 13 % for a draw, and 5 % for an away win. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (99.8 %), Home +2 handicap (98.9 %), Under 7.5 (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (98.2 %), Under 6.5 (95.4 %), Home or Draw (95.4 %), Home +1 handicap (95.4 %), and Home over 0.5 goals (93.2 %). These picks reflect FC Noah’s strong attacking output and Van’s defensive frailties.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Noah win
86.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win
3.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.97
2.27
1.00
1.87
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.00
1.20
1.40
2.20
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
2.59
0.76
3.00
0.89
2.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.87
1.27
1.73
0.60
2.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.31
1.20
1.80
0.38
2.62
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.53
1.30
1.70
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.8%
Under 1.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
13.9%
2-0
13.9%
4-0
10.5%
1-0
8.8%
3-1
6.7%
2-1
6.6%
5-0
6.3%
4-1
5.0%
FC Noah goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.8%
4.8%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
2
14%
6.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
3
14%
6.7%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
4
11%
5.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Noah goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
FC Noah is 2.83 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
FC Noah is 2.27 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (2.60 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
FC Noah is 2.40 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Noah or Draw
97.0%
Avg Implied -
87%
10%
3%
covers FC Noah + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah or Van
89.8%
Avg Implied -
87%
10%
3%
covers FC Noah + Van
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Van
13.2%
Avg Implied -
87%
10%
3%
covers Draw + Van
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Noah over/under 0.5
Over
95.1%
Under
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 3.5
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 3.5
Over
0.1%
Under
99.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Noah, so a minus line means FC Noah give that many goals of a start and Van receive them. At -1, FC Noah must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Noah win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Noah)
FC Noah -2
47.9%
Draw -2
21.8%
Van +2
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Noah)
FC Noah -1
69.7%
Draw -1
17.1%
Van +1
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Noah)
FC Noah +1
97.0%
Draw +1
2.4%
Van -1
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Noah)
FC Noah +2
99.4%
Draw +2
0.5%
Van -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
1.20
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.35
1.67
0.56
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.08
0.40
0.40
0.12
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.94
0.50
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.07
0.33
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.40
0.60
0.40
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.41
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.80
1.40
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.80
0.70
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Noah · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nardin Mulahusejnović62%
Matheus Aiás20%
Alen Grgić17%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan14%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Sualehe30%
Gustavo Sangaré22%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira20%
Sergey Muradyan20%
Alen Grgić17%
Marin Jakoliš12%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nathanaël Saintini12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Yan Eteki10%
Eric Boakye10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hélder Ferreira20%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson12%
Nardin Mulahusejnović12%
Takuto Oshima11%
David Sualehe10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Sergey Muradyan10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Imran Oulad Omar0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
Yan Eteki0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nardin Mulahusejnović38%
Imran Oulad Omar20%
Hélder Ferreira10%
Matheus Aiás10%
Marin Jakoliš0%
Alen Grgić0%
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan0%
Gustavo Sangaré0%
Gonçalo Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Yan Eteki0%
Guðmundur Þórarinsson0%
Timothy Fayulu0%
Nathanaël Saintini0%
Ognjen Čančarević0%
Eric Boakye0%
Gor Manvelyan0%
Takuto Oshima0%
Sergey Muradyan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
FC Noah's squad is €11m more valuable than Van's (€12m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
FC Noah's attack is €4m more valuable than Van's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
FC Noah's midfield is €3m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
FC Noah's defence is €3m more valuable than Van's (€4m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik