FC Krasnodar’s dominance at away venues and their recent unbeaten run make them the clear favourite, and the model echoes that with a 65% chance of a win. The probability of a draw sits at 19%, while a home win is only 15%. The most likely outcome is a 1-2 victory for Krasnodar, a 9.5% chance that stands out from the other scorelines. The model expects 3.6 goals in total, with the average total of 3 goals occurring 21% of the time.
Orenburg, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages only 0.78 goals scored and concedes 1.78. Krasnodar, on the other hand, scores 2.4 and concedes just 0.6 when away from home. These figures underpin the model’s confidence in a Krasnodar win.
The suggested picks are all highly probable: Over 19.5 fouls98.6%, Home under 3.5 goals97.2% (hit), Under 7.597.1% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls96.4%, Over 8.5 corners95.6%, Away +2 handicap94.2% (hit), Under 6.593.0% (hit), and Over 23.5 fouls91.9%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.
Results analysis
The win for FC Krasnodar extends their unbeaten run, while FC Orenburg remain unbroken after a draw. The model predicted an away win with a 65% probability, and the result matched the forecast. The final score was 1-3, confirming the model’s choice. The model’s selections also performed well: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.1%, Away +2 handicap hit at 94.2%, and Under 6.5 hit at 93.0%. The most likely scoreline was 1-2 with a 9.5% chance, and the predicted total of 3.6 goals aligned closely with the 4-goal outcome. Overall, the predictions delivered a solid performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Orenburg winâś— Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar winâś“ Hit
65.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.93
1.19
1.44
1.07
2.50
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
2.53
0.78
1.78
1.00
3.38
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.15
1.71
1.00
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.77
2.00
0.69
2.14
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.10
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
2.45
0.60
2.50
0.60
2.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.1%
Under 2.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.7%
Under 3.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.5%
No
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1
8.6%
0-2
8.4%
1-3 âś“
7.7%
0-3
6.8%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
5.4%
1-4
4.7%
FC Orenburg goals ↓
FC Krasnodar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
6.1%
8.4%
6.8%
4.2%
1
2.4%
8.6%
9.5%
7.7%
4.7%
2
1.8%
4.4%
5.4%
4.3%
2.6%
3
0.7%
1.7%
2.0%
1.6%
1.0%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Orenburg goals (down), columns = FC Krasnodar goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.58
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.50
Chayka
2.33
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Lokomotiv
2.27
Amkal
2.25
Kuban Kholding
2.25
Spartak Kostroma
2.20
Ural
2.17
Tver
2.00
Orel
2.00
Mashuk-KMV
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
FC Sochi
2.00
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
2.00
CSKA Moscow
1.92
FC Rostov
1.85
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.75
Amkar
1.60
Zenit Penza
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Torpedo Miass
1.50
Temp Barnaul
1.50
Kristall
1.50
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Novosibirsk
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Chelyabinsk
1.33
Baltika
1.33
Dynamo
1.27
Znamya Truda
1.25
Akron
1.25
FC Krasnodar
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25
Akhmat
1.20
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.12
Rubin
1.11
PSK Dinskaya
1.06
Shumbrat
1.06
Fankom
1.06
Kristall MEZ
1.06
Znamya Noginsk
1.06
RWChallenge
1.06
Buryatia
1.06
Murom
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Chernomorets
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Leningradets
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Sokol Kazan
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
FC Orenburg
0.50
Fakel
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Krylia Sovetov
0.17
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Irkutsk
0.00
KDV
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
0.00
Legion Dynamo
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
FK Spartak Tambov
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Druzhba
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Veles
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
KAMAZ
0.00
Enisey
0.00
Kolomna
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg is 0.75 points worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Amkal
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Orel
2.67
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Torpedo Vladimir
2.50
FC Sochi
2.50
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.50
Lokomotiv
2.09
Murom
2.00
KDV
2.00
Kristall
2.00
FK Spartak Tambov
2.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
2.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Volgar Astrakhan
2.00
Ryazan
2.00
FK Sokol Saratov
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Kuban Kholding
2.00
Zenit
1.92
Dynamo
1.91
Luki-Energiya
1.75
Chayka
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Sokol Kazan
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Tver
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.50
Spartak Kostroma
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Akhmat
1.30
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.25
PSK Dinskaya
1.23
Shumbrat
1.23
Fankom
1.23
Kristall MEZ
1.23
Znamya Noginsk
1.23
RWChallenge
1.23
Buryatia
1.23
Amkar
1.20
Ural
1.17
CSKA Moscow
1.15
Akron
1.12
Zenit Penza
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Legion Dynamo
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Anri Vladivostok
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
FC Krasnodar
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Kolomna
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.83
Rubin
0.78
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Irkutsk
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Veles
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Enisey
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg and FC Krasnodar are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.00
Chayka
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
CSKA Moscow
0.38
Zenit
0.42
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Tver
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
0.50
Baltika
0.67
Amkal
0.75
Luki-Energiya
0.75
Tyumen
0.75
FC Sochi
0.75
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.75
Spartak Kostroma
0.80
Ural
0.83
Rubin
0.89
FC Rostov
0.92
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Irkutsk
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Broke Boys
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Cherepovets
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.00
Nosta
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Ska-khabarovsk
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Rodina Moskva
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
Amkar
1.40
Akhmat
1.40
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FC Krasnodar
1.50
Kuban Kholding
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.67
Orel
1.67
FC Orenburg
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
Fakel
1.67
PSK Dinskaya
1.67
Shumbrat
1.67
Fankom
1.67
Kristall MEZ
1.67
Znamya Noginsk
1.67
RWChallenge
1.67
Buryatia
1.67
Dynamo
1.73
Nizhny Novgorod
1.83
Akron
1.88
Zenit Penza
2.00
Murom
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Sokol Kazan
2.00
Legion Dynamo
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Nart Cherkessk
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Druzhba
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Kaluga
2.00
Veles
2.00
KAMAZ
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Kristall
2.50
Novosibirsk
2.50
FK Sokol Saratov
2.50
Torpedo Moskva
2.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Krylia Sovetov
3.67
Dinamo Bryansk
4.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
4.00
FK Spartak Tambov
4.00
Dinamo Kirov
4.50
KDV
5.00
Anri Vladivostok
5.00
Urozhay
5.00
Kolomna
8.00
FC Orenburg is 0.17 goals worse than FC Krasnodar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.50).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Orenburg or Drawâś— Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
65%
covers FC Orenburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg or FC Krasnodarâś“ Hit
80.5%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
65%
covers FC Orenburg + FC Krasnodar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Krasnodarâś“ Hit
84.8%
Avg Implied -
15%
19%
65%
covers Draw + FC Krasnodar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.2%
Under
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Orenburg, so a minus line means FC Orenburg give that many goals of a start and FC Krasnodar receive them. At -1, FC Orenburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Orenburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Orenburg)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg -2
1.7%
Draw -2
4.1%
FC Krasnodar +2
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Orenburg)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg -1
5.8%
Draw -1
9.4%
FC Krasnodar +1
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Orenburg)Actual: FC Krasnodar
FC Orenburg +1
34.7%
Draw +1
21.1%
FC Krasnodar -1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Orenburg)Actual: Draw
FC Orenburg +2
55.8%
Draw +2
19.3%
FC Krasnodar -2
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.44
0.56
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
1.12
0.33
0.78
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
0.57
0.29
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
0.62
0.25
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.40
0.17
0.17
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.25
0.90
0.30
1.10
0.20
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.75
0.88
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
1.41
0.44
1.00
0.75
1.88
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.77
1.14
0.71
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Krasnodar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Krasnodar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.47
1.38
0.44
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.35
1.60
0.30
1.30
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Krasnodar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 7.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 10.5 corners
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Draw or Away
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away +1 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 11.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emircan GĂĽrlĂĽk17%
Alexandre Jesus14%
Emil Tsenov14%
Jordhy Thompson14%
Maksim Saveljev14%
Evgeniy Bolotov12%
Gedeon Guzina7%
Vladislav Kamilov7%
Danila Vedernikov5%
Fahd Moufi4%
Du Queiroz4%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Stepan Oganesyan0%
Danila Khotulev0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Artem Kasimov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Damián Puebla0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tigran Avanesyan50%
Aleksey Tataev36%
Artem Kasimov33%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri29%
Alexis Cantero29%
Vladislav Kamilov27%
Jhon Palacios25%
Danila Khotulev21%
Anri Chichinadze20%
Evgeniy Bolotov20%
Atsamaz Revazov20%
Fahd Moufi17%
Stepan Oganesyan17%
Damián Puebla17%
Gedeon Guzina15%
Jordhy Thompson14%
Stanislav Poroykov14%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov14%
Danila Vedernikov14%
Renat Golybin11%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy5%
Du Queiroz4%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Maksim Saveljev0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Emircan GĂĽrlĂĽk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordhy Thompson14%
Ruslan Kul11%
Stepan Oganesyan8%
Du Queiroz8%
Artem Kasimov7%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy5%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri4%
Danila Khotulev4%
Emircan GĂĽrlĂĽk4%
Gedeon Guzina4%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Vladislav Kamilov0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Maksim Saveljev0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Damián Puebla0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordhy Thompson21%
Emircan GĂĽrlĂĽk21%
Fahd Moufi12%
Aleksey Tataev9%
Maksim Saveljev9%
Du Queiroz8%
Damián Puebla8%
Danila Khotulev4%
Evgeniy Bolotov4%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Ivan Ignatiev0%
Anri Chichinadze0%
Irakliy Kvekveskiri0%
Vladislav Kamilov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Georgi Zotov0%
Vladan Bubanja0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Stepan Oganesyan0%
Tigran Avanesyan0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Pavel Gorelov0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Artem Kasimov0%
Alexis Cantero0%
Stanislav Poroykov0%
Atsamaz Revazov0%
Renat Golybin0%
FC Krasnodar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jhon CĂłrdoba46%
Eduard Spertsyan33%
Nikita Krivtsov24%
Victor Sá23%
Jubal18%
Diego Costa11%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Douglas Augusto8%
Gaëtan Perrin8%
Juan Manuel Boselli8%
JoĂŁo Batxi7%
Aleksandr Chernikov4%
VĂtor Tormena4%
Lucas Olaza4%
Kevin Lenini4%
Sergey Petrov0%
Giovanni González0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Danila Kozlov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Costa30%
Aleksandr Chernikov26%
Gustavo Furtado25%
Douglas Augusto21%
Sergey Petrov20%
Kevin Lenini19%
Jubal18%
Jhon CĂłrdoba18%
Valentin Paltsev18%
Nikita Krivtsov17%
Giovanni González17%
Juan Manuel Boselli17%
Eduard Spertsyan10%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Lucas Olaza7%
Stanislav Agkatsev7%
Victor Sá5%
VĂtor Tormena4%
Gaëtan Perrin0%
JoĂŁo Batxi0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eduard Spertsyan43%
Jhon CĂłrdoba21%
JoĂŁo Batxi20%
Gaëtan Perrin17%
Juan Manuel Boselli17%
Lucas Olaza15%
Giovanni González12%
Gustavo Furtado12%
Moses David Cobnan10%
Sergey Petrov7%
Victor Sá5%
Douglas Augusto4%
VĂtor Tormena4%
Nikita Krivtsov3%
Aleksandr Chernikov0%
Jubal0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Lenini0%
Diego Costa0%
Valentin Paltsev0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jhon CĂłrdoba32%
Eduard Spertsyan17%
Victor Sá14%
Gaëtan Perrin8%
Diego Costa7%
Nikita Krivtsov7%
Valentin Paltsev6%
Aleksandr Chernikov4%
Douglas Augusto4%
VĂtor Tormena4%
Lucas Olaza4%
JoĂŁo Batxi3%
Sergey Petrov0%
Giovanni González0%
Jubal0%
Stanislav Agkatsev0%
Kevin Lenini0%
Juan Manuel Boselli0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Moses David Cobnan0%
Danila Kozlov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Orenburg's squad is €96m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€18m vs €114m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Orenburg's attack is €26m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€8m vs €34m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Orenburg's midfield is €32m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€3m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Orenburg's defence is €38m less valuable than FC Krasnodar's (€7m vs €45m).
Russia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zenit
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akron
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
Ural