FC Orenburg’s defensive record at home shows a worrying 1.44 goals conceded per match, while the away side, FC Rostov, has been a stingy 0.33 goals allowed on the road. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 37 % chance, and a draw and home win each at 32 %. The expected total goals is 2.2, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7 % chance. Orenburg’s average of 0.67 goals scored at home against stronger opposition contrasts with Rostov’s 1.67 away goals against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (97.6 %), Over 21.5 fouls (94.1 %), Over 23.5 fouls (87.7 %), Over 2.5 cards (84.3 %), Under 3.5 goals (82.0 %), Over 25.5 fouls (78.0 %) and Under 11.5 corners (75.6 %). The match is set to be tight and low-scoring, with the model’s selection pointing to an away victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early as FC Orenburg edged FC Rostov 2-1, a result that overturned the model’s pre-match pick of an away win with a 37 % chance. The home side, coming off a draw, managed to secure the victory, while the away team, fresh from a defeat, failed to convert their 1.67 average goals scored into a win. The model’s favourite was wrong, but its other selections proved accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.6 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.1 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 87.7 %, Over 2.5 cards at 84.3 %, Under 3.5 goals at 82.0 %, Over 25.5 fouls at 78.0 %, and Under 11.5 corners at 75.6 %. The match delivered a surprise, with the final score confirming a home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Orenburg win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.70
1.08
1.15
0.59
2.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
2.00
0.67
1.44
0.60
2.50
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.18
2.00
0.50
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.81
1.12
1.21
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.10
0.50
1.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.07
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.60
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.7%
Under 2.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.4%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
10.3%
1-2
7.7%
0-2
7.3%
2-1 ✓
7.0%
2-0
6.1%
FC Orenburg goals ↓
FC Rostov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.1%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Orenburg goals (down), columns = FC Rostov goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.40
CSKA Moscow
2.20
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.80
Zenit
1.80
Dynamo
1.40
Baltika
1.40
FC Orenburg
1.20
Rubin
1.20
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
1.00
Rodina Moskva
0.80
Lokomotiv
0.60
Fakel
0.40
Akron
0.40
FC Orenburg is 0.20 points better than FC Rostov in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.40
Spartak Moscow
2.00
FC Krasnodar
2.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.80
Rodina Moskva
1.60
CSKA Moscow
1.40
Dynamo
1.40
FC Rostov
1.40
Baltika
1.40
Akhmat
1.20
Rubin
1.20
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.00
Akron
0.80
FC Orenburg
0.80
Fakel
0.60
FC Orenburg is 0.60 goals worse than FC Rostov in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CSKA Moscow
0.80
Spartak Moscow
0.80
FC Krasnodar
0.80
Zenit
0.80
Akhmat
1.00
Fakel
1.20
Baltika
1.20
FC Orenburg
1.20
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.40
Dynamo
1.40
Lokomotiv
1.40
Rubin
1.40
FC Rostov
1.80
Akron
2.60
Rodina Moskva
2.80
FC Orenburg is 0.60 goals better than FC Rostov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
65%
Spartak Moscow
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
Zenit
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
57%
Lokomotiv
52%
Fakel
51%
FC Rostov
50%
Krylia Sovetov
49%
Rubin
45%
Akhmat
43%
FC Orenburg
41%
Dinamo Makhachkala
39%
Rodina Moskva
39%
Baltika
37%
FC Orenburg is 9.2 percentage points worse than FC Rostov in terms of average possession (41% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Orenburg
For 5.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Rostov
For 4.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 15.3 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.7
4.5
5.1
3.9
28.3
30.7
25.9
vs Stronger (30)
10.5
11.3
9.6
4.6
4.8
4.5
29.1
31.3
26.8
vs Similar (20)
10.9
9.6
12.4
4.3
5.6
3.0
27.2
29.8
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
67%
60%
64%
80%
48%
88%
95%
80%
% under line
37%
33%
40%
36%
20%
52%
12%
5%
20%
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.7
8.4
4.7
5.0
4.5
29.4
29.0
29.8
vs Stronger (21)
9.3
9.3
9.2
4.9
4.6
5.1
27.5
28.1
26.5
vs Similar (20)
6.6
7.4
6.0
4.7
5.6
4.0
30.9
30.1
31.4
vs Weaker (9)
11.7
10.0
12.5
4.4
4.7
4.3
30.5
29.0
31.2
% over line
32%
44%
21%
68%
70%
67%
92%
100%
84%
% under line
68%
56%
79%
32%
30%
33%
8%
0%
16%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
16.0
FC Orenburg
10.6
CSKA Moscow
10.5
Dynamo
10.5
Akhmat
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Akron
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Fakel
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.1
Lokomotiv
9.0
Spartak Moscow
8.9
Rubin
8.8
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.3
Baltika
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.4
FC Krasnodar
5.1
Baltika
5.0
Rubin
4.9
FC Rostov
4.9
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Akhmat
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.7
Fakel
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Dynamo
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.5
Zenit
4.0
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.7
Spartak Moscow
30.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
30.0
FC Krasnodar
29.9
Akhmat
29.8
FC Rostov
29.6
Rubin
29.0
Fakel
28.8
FC Orenburg
28.3
Lokomotiv
27.7
Zenit
27.6
Dynamo
27.6
Akron
27.2
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Krylia Sovetov
25.5
Rodina Moskva
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.3%
Under 9.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.2%
Under 3.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
94.1%
Under 21.5
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.38
0.62
0.18
0.76
vs Stronger (19)
0.11
0.79
0.11
0.67
0.10
0.90
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
1.00
0.50
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.47
0.12
0.50
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.69
0.54
0.41
1.35
vs Stronger (19)
0.53
1.21
0.56
0.78
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.64
1.00
0.00
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.40
0.00
0.17
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.60
0.62
0.75
0.14
0.43
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (35)
€204m
CM (35)
€137m
FK (31)
€125m
SM (26)
€119m
LOK (28)
€111m
DYN (33)
€111m
RUB (32)
€53m
FR (33)
€37m
BAL (34)
€36m
KS (32)
€32m
AKH (31)
€32m
AKR (31)
€30m
FO (42)
€25m
DM (30)
€23m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
FC Orenburg's squad is €12m less valuable than FC Rostov's (€25m vs €37m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (11)
€109m
FK (15)
€64m
SM (11)
€58m
LOK (9)
€53m
DYN (10)
€46m
CM (16)
€41m
RUB (10)
€18m
FR (14)
€17m
AKH (10)
€16m
KS (13)
€13m
AKR (11)
€11m
FO (15)
€10m
BAL (10)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
DM (11)
€6m
FAK (10)
€5m
FC Orenburg's attack is €7m less valuable than FC Rostov's (€10m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (7)
€52m
ZEN (6)
€44m
SM (4)
€29m
DYN (6)
€23m
FK (4)
€20m
LOK (7)
€18m
RUB (9)
€13m
BAL (10)
€13m
KS (6)
€8m
AKR (6)
€8m
FO (10)
€6m
DM (4)
€3m
RM (4)
€3m
AKH (6)
€3m
FR (4)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
FC Orenburg's midfield is €3m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€6m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (18)
€51m
CM (12)
€44m
DYN (17)
€41m
FK (12)
€41m
LOK (12)
€41m
SM (11)
€32m
RUB (13)
€22m
FR (15)
€17m
BAL (14)
€16m
DM (15)
€13m
AKH (15)
€13m
KS (13)
€11m
AKR (14)
€11m
FO (17)
€9m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
FC Orenburg's defence is €8m less valuable than FC Rostov's (€9m vs €17m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Zenit
Dinamo Makhachkala
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Fakel
Akron