Defensive solidity will shape this Cup clash, with Orenburg’s home form showing a 1.5 average conceded and Rubin’s away side struggling to find the net. The model favours a home win, offering a 34% chance for FC Orenburg, 32% for a draw, and 34% for Rubin. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance. Orenburg, facing a stronger opponent at home, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Rubin, playing away against a weaker side, has yet to score and concede in recent outings. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 99.6%, Under 6.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 10.5 corners at 99.0%, Under 5.5 goals at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Under 9.5 corners at 97.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6%.
Results analysis
The draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, a Home win, was not fulfilled. FC Orenburg and Rubin finished 1-1, leaving the result a draw. The model had chosen a Home win with a 34% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.3%, Under 5.5 at 97.8%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.6%, Under 4.5 at 93.4%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.7%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 90.5%. Both sides remained unbeaten in their last five, with each ending their most recent match 1-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Orenburg win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 36.5% · @ 2.56
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Draw✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.19
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Rubin win✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied 34.3% · @ 2.73
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.81
Superbet
2.70
Dafabet
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.63
1.17
1.17
0.67
1.94
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
1.95
0.75
1.50
0.58
2.25
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.33
1.07
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.11
1.62
1.00
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.32-6.0%
Under 1.5
35.5%
@ 3.15+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Marathonbet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.07-9.7%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.75+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.08
SBO
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Under
1xBet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
SBO
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
@ 3.56-9.2%
Under 3.5
83.1%
@ 1.26+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.72
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.6%
@ 1.79-7.4%
No
55.4%
@ 1.93+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
No
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.8%@ 5.57+7.0%
0-0
13.1%@ 8.23+7.8%
0-1
11.3%@ 7.71+5.7%
1-0
11.1%@ 7.41+5.3%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.75+2.8%
2-1
7.2%@ 9.32+2.5%
0-2
6.8%@ 12.84+3.4%
2-0
6.7%@ 11.94+3.0%
FC Orenburg goals ↓
Rubin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.8%
2.4%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
2
6.7%
7.2%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.4%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Orenburg goals (down), columns = Rubin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Tver
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg is 0.08 points worse than Rubin in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg is 0.06 goals better than Rubin in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
FC Orenburg is 1.27 goals worse than Rubin in terms of goals conceded per game (2.56 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Orenburg
For 4.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rubin
For 3.9 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
4.6
5.0
4.2
28.9
30.2
27.5
vs Stronger (32)
9.8
10.6
8.9
4.9
5.1
4.7
29.7
30.8
28.4
vs Similar (18)
10.1
9.4
10.7
4.2
5.0
3.5
27.5
29.0
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
53%
66%
79%
54%
92%
95%
89%
% under line
44%
40%
47%
34%
21%
46%
8%
5%
11%
This opponent (Rubin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
8.0
8.4
4.3
4.6
4.0
28.9
28.5
29.3
vs Stronger (13)
6.9
7.4
6.4
4.1
3.9
4.3
30.3
30.0
30.6
vs Similar (26)
7.9
7.2
8.5
4.6
5.2
4.1
29.0
29.1
28.9
vs Weaker (11)
10.8
10.4
11.3
3.9
4.3
3.4
26.8
25.6
28.7
% over line
29%
24%
35%
62%
64%
60%
95%
100%
90%
% under line
71%
76%
65%
38%
36%
40%
5%
0%
10%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.3
Rodina Moskva
10.2
FC Orenburg
9.9
Dynamo
9.7
Zenit
9.6
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Arsenal Tula
9.3
Akron
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Lokomotiv
8.9
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Ural
8.4
Rubin
8.4
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Baltika
5.0
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Fakel
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
Akron
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Leningradets
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Spartak Moscow
30.3
Baltika
30.2
FC Rostov
29.1
FC Orenburg
28.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.8
Rubin
28.7
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.4
Rodina Moskva
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Zenit
27.4
Akron
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
31.6%
@ 1.91-17.2%
Under 9.5
68.4%
@ 1.81+17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.0%
@ 1.61-6.6%
Under 3.5
50.0%
@ 2.10+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
Under
Superbet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.4%
Under 21.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Orenburg or Draw✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.43
Edge
+0.2%
34%
32%
34%
covers FC Orenburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.41
SBO
1.36
FC Orenburg or Rubin✗ Miss
67.7%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
-3.0%
34%
32%
34%
covers FC Orenburg + Rubin
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.31
SBO
1.26
Draw or Rubin✓ Hit
66.5%
Avg Implied 63.6% · @ 1.47
Edge
+2.8%
34%
32%
34%
covers Draw + Rubin
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.45
SBO
1.41
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.5%
@ 1.31-5.7%
Under
34.5%
@ 3.24+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.42
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 2.54-8.4%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.50+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Marathonbet
2.54
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.48
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.07-6.1%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.10+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
5.70
Under
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rubin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.0%
@ 1.34-3.9%
Under
34.0%
@ 3.10+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Rubin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
@ 2.65-6.2%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.46+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
Marathonbet
2.69
Superbet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Rubin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 6.47-4.9%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.09+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.60
Superbet
6.00
Under
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Rubin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Orenburg, so a minus line means FC Orenburg give that many goals of a start and Rubin receive them. At -1, FC Orenburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Orenburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Orenburg)Actual: Rubin
FC Orenburg -2
4.1%
@ 6.80-7.6%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 4.70-7.3%
Rubin +2
86.3%
@ 1.11+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.80
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (FC Orenburg)Actual: Rubin
FC Orenburg -1
13.7%
@ 5.15-4.1%
Draw -1
19.8%
@ 4.20-2.0%
Rubin +1
66.5%
@ 1.52+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.15
Draw
Marathonbet
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
1.52
Handicap +1 (FC Orenburg)Actual: FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg +1
65.8%
@ 1.47+3.3%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 4.35-1.0%
Rubin -1
14.1%
@ 5.60-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.47
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Marathonbet
5.60
Handicap +2 (FC Orenburg)Actual: FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg +2
85.9%
@ 1.12+15.2%
Draw +2
9.8%
@ 4.70-7.0%
Rubin -2
4.3%
@ 6.35-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
6.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.42
0.67
0.17
0.72
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.75
0.12
0.75
0.08
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.47
0.33
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.44
0.38
0.50
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Superbet
2.92
Under
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.20
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rubin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Rubin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Rubin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.75
0.50
0.50
1.22
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
1.20
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rubin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rubin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.87
0.73
0.13
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.86
0.25
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.10
0.80
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.58
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
4.85
Under
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rubin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Under
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Rubin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.40
Under
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Rubin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.4%
1.06
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.9%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
-
-
+16.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.1%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
79.0%
1.50
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
-
+17.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.2%
1.50
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.48
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
1.46
1xBet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.44
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruslan Kul33%
Andrey Kasadzhikov33%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Tataev50%
Jhon Palacios50%
Evgeniy Bolotov33%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov20%
Danila Vedernikov20%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy17%
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Renat Golybin25%
Alexandre Jesus20%
Aleksey Tataev17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Rubin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacques Siwe40%
Bogdan Jočić33%
Aleksandar Jukić25%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Ignacio Saavedra0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Jukić50%
Veldin Hodža33%
Igor Vujačić20%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilya Samoshnikov25%
Ilya Rozhkov20%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Evgeniy Staver17%
Anderson Arroyo17%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Aleksandar Jukić0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Ugochukwu Iwu0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ugochukwu Iwu33%
Aleksandar Jukić25%
Nazmi Gripshi0%
Ignacio Saavedra0%
Denil Maldonado0%
Ilya Samoshnikov0%
Igor Vujačić0%
Evgeniy Staver0%
Anderson Arroyo0%
Bogdan Jočić0%
Veldin Hodža0%
Egor Teslenko0%
Jacques Siwe0%
Ruslan Bezrukov0%
Daniil Kuznetsov0%
Ilya Rozhkov0%
Nikita Lobov0%
Maksim Ignatjev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Orenburg's squad is €27m less valuable than Rubin's (€18m vs €45m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Orenburg and Rubin have a similar attack value (both €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Orenburg's midfield is €9m less valuable than Rubin's (€3m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Orenburg's defence is €18m less valuable than Rubin's (€7m vs €25m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel