Defensive solidity will shape this Cup clash, with FC Orenburg averaging 1.5 goals conceded at home against stronger opponents while Spartak Moscow keeps just one goal away against weaker teams. The model favours an away win, assigning 44% to Spartak, 32% to a draw and 24% to Orenburg. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match; the single most likely score is 1-1, a 14.4% probability. Orenburg’s home form shows 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Spartak’s away form delivers 1.45 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Under 11.5 corners (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 10.5 corners (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Under 9.5 corners (96.5%) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.3%). Both sides have been unbeaten in their last five, each ending with a 1-1 draw against the other, hinting at a tight, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Orenburg win
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Orenburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.47
1.15
1.15
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
1.70
0.78
1.44
0.64
1.91
vs Similar (10)
1.30
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Moscow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.13
2.00
0.94
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.22
0.78
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
1.06
3.00
1.14
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
13.7%
0-0
13.4%
0-2
9.3%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
5.7%
2-0
4.6%
FC Orenburg goals ↓
Spartak Moscow goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
9.3%
3.9%
1.2%
1
9.2%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
2
4.6%
5.7%
3.5%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Orenburg goals (down), columns = Spartak Moscow goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Tver
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg is 1.30 points worse than Spartak Moscow in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Orenburg is 1.07 goals worse than Spartak Moscow in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Tver
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
FC Orenburg is 1.48 goals worse than Spartak Moscow in terms of goals conceded per game (2.56 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Orenburg
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Moscow
For 6.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 14.6 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Orenburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.6
3.3
3.5
3.2
29.3
30.8
27.9
vs Stronger (31)
9.7
10.2
9.1
3.7
3.8
3.7
29.6
30.4
28.7
vs Similar (19)
9.5
8.2
10.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
28.7
31.8
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
60%
50%
50%
57%
44%
93%
100%
88%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
50%
43%
56%
7%
0%
12%
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Moscow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.6
3.9
4.0
3.8
30.7
30.4
31.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
8.7
8.5
9.0
4.6
4.8
4.3
31.7
31.2
32.7
vs Weaker (31)
9.2
8.4
9.8
3.5
3.5
3.6
30.2
29.8
30.6
% over line
39%
27%
54%
56%
56%
56%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
61%
73%
46%
44%
44%
44%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.3
Rodina Moskva
10.0
Dynamo
9.7
FC Orenburg
9.7
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akhmat
9.4
Arsenal Tula
9.3
Akron
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Lokomotiv
8.9
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
FC Krasnodar
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Rubin
8.4
Ural
8.4
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.7
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.5
FC Orenburg
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Zenit
4.1
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Fakel
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
Akron
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Rodina Moskva
3.5
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Spartak Moscow
30.3
Baltika
30.2
FC Orenburg
29.1
FC Rostov
29.1
Rubin
28.8
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Akhmat
28.5
FC Krasnodar
28.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.4
Rodina Moskva
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.7
Lokomotiv
27.5
Akron
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Zenit
26.8
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.5%
Under 9.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.9%
Under 21.5
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Orenburg or Draw
56.5%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
44%
covers FC Orenburg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg or Spartak Moscow
68.2%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
44%
covers FC Orenburg + Spartak Moscow
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spartak Moscow
75.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
32%
44%
covers Draw + Spartak Moscow
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
Under
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5
Over
35.2%
Under
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Orenburg, so a minus line means FC Orenburg give that many goals of a start and Spartak Moscow receive them. At -1, FC Orenburg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Orenburg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Orenburg)
FC Orenburg -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.5%
Spartak Moscow +2
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Orenburg)
FC Orenburg -1
8.6%
Draw -1
16.0%
Spartak Moscow +1
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Orenburg)
FC Orenburg +1
56.5%
Draw +1
23.4%
Spartak Moscow -1
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Orenburg)
FC Orenburg +2
79.9%
Draw +2
13.2%
Spartak Moscow -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.63
0.38
0.69
0.18
0.59
vs Stronger (20)
0.10
0.65
0.11
0.78
0.09
0.55
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Moscow
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.19
0.44
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.54
0.89
0.44
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.53
1.57
0.43
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Orenburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.77
0.46
0.53
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.05
0.67
0.67
0.55
1.36
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Moscow) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Moscow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.81
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.69
0.33
0.33
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.53
1.43
0.71
0.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Orenburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Orenburg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Orenburg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Moscow over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Orenburg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruslan Kul33%
Andrey Kasadzhikov33%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Gedeon Guzina0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Tataev50%
Jhon Palacios50%
Evgeniy Bolotov33%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov20%
Danila Vedernikov20%
Emil Tsenov20%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy17%
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maxime Sivis17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Ruslan Kul17%
Andrey Kasadzhikov17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Aleksey Tataev0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Alexandre Jesus0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Renat Golybin0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Renat Golybin25%
Alexandre Jesus20%
Aleksey Tataev17%
Gedeon Guzina17%
Dmitry Rybchinskiy0%
Maxime Sivis0%
Evgeniy Bolotov0%
Bogdan Ovsyannikov0%
Jhon Palacios0%
Danila Vedernikov0%
Ruslan Kul0%
Emil Tsenov0%
Damián Puebla0%
Andrey Kasadzhikov0%
Egor Nazarenko0%
Spartak Moscow
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manfred Ugalde33%
Christopher Martins33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Christopher Wooh20%
Roman Zobnin17%
Marquinhos17%
Danyl Prutsev17%
Pablo Solari17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gedson Fernandes60%
Christopher Wooh40%
Roman Zobnin33%
Manfred Ugalde33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Aleksandr Maksimenko17%
Marquinhos17%
Igor Dmitriev17%
Srđan Babić0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Christopher Martins0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marquinhos50%
Alexander Djiku33%
Mirlind Daku25%
Ezequiel Barco25%
Roman Zobnin17%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Manfred Ugalde0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Manfred Ugalde33%
Srđan Babić0%
Gedson Fernandes0%
Aleksandr Maksimenko0%
Nail Umyarov0%
Roman Zobnin0%
Marquinhos0%
Mirlind Daku0%
Christopher Martins0%
Christopher Wooh0%
Alexander Djiku0%
Danyl Prutsev0%
Ezequiel Barco0%
Victor Parada0%
Ruslan Litvinov0%
Pablo Solari0%
Daniil Denisov0%
Igor Dmitriev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Orenburg's squad is €111m less valuable than Spartak Moscow's (€18m vs €129m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Orenburg's attack is €51m less valuable than Spartak Moscow's (€8m vs €59m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Orenburg's midfield is €34m less valuable than Spartak Moscow's (€3m vs €37m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Orenburg's defence is €26m less valuable than Spartak Moscow's (€7m vs €34m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
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FC Krasnodar
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel