PythiaFootballBETA
Zenit's impressive recent form, with four consecutive wins, makes them the clear favourite to win against FC Orenburg at Rodina Moskva's home stadium, where FC Orenburg have struggled against stronger opponents. They have conceded an average of 1.33 goals at home, and their opponents have scored an average of 0.78 goals, indicating a weakness in their home defence.
The model predicts an away win for Zenit with 63% probability, with a 25% chance of a draw and a 12% chance of an FC Orenburg win. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 0-1, with a probability of 14.8%.
FC Orenburg's away performance against weaker opponents is concerning, as they have conceded an average of 0.73 goals. In contrast, Zenit has scored an average of 1.67 goals away against weaker opponents. The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (89.1%), Under 3.5 cards (77.9% with an edge of 12%), Over 3.5 cards (71.2%), and Over 1.5 goals (70.2%). The probabilities of a home win, draw, and away win are 12%, 25%, and 63% respectively.
FC Orenburg's loss extends their recent form woes, coming off a draw and now a defeat in their last outing. The final score was 0-3 in favour of Zenit, resulting in an away win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Zenit, with a pre-match probability of 63%. The model's call was correct, as the favourite ultimately secured the win. The model's selection of Zenit to win landed, and the selections largely came in. The model correctly predicted that the game would see over 21.5 fouls, under 3.5 goals, over 3.5 cards, and over 1.5 goals, with probabilities of 89.1%, 77.9%, 71.2%, and 70.2% respectively, all of which hit.
FC Orenburg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 0.59 | 2.12 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.63 | 1.95 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.09 | 1.18 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.60 | 1.73 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 1.89 | 0.50 | 2.07 | 0.57 | 1.71 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
| Zenit goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 10% | 15% | 14% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 11% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
FC OrenburgZenitFC Orenburg| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 28.2 | 30.5 | 25.9 |
| vs Stronger (30) | 10.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 28.9 | 31.0 | 26.8 |
| vs Similar (20) | 10.9 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 27.2 | 29.8 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 61% | 62% | 60% | 64% | 80% | 48% | 88% | 95% | 80% |
| % under line | 39% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 20% | 52% | 12% | 5% | 20% |
Zenit| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 27.2 | 26.3 | 28.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 31.0 | 36.0 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (48) | 9.9 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 27.0 | 25.7 | 28.3 |
| % over line | 54% | 44% | 63% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 86% | 78% | 95% |
| % under line | 46% | 56% | 37% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 14% | 22% | 5% |
FC Orenburg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.63 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 0.76 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 0.44 | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.55 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.17 | 0.93 | 0.13 | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 0.89 | 0.18 | 0.93 | 0.14 | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| Clean sheet % | 83% (+56pp vs league) | |||||
FC Orenburg| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.03 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.41 | 1.35 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.53 | 1.26 | 0.56 | 0.89 | 0.50 | 1.60 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.55 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Zenit| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.20 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 1.00 | 0.32 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.21 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+53pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 96.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 91.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 83.3% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +15.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 77.9% | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | +11.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 71.6% | 1.63 | 1.63 | - | - | - | - | +15.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.3% | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | +2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | -6.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/10/25 | A | 6-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 5-2 | |
| 26/08/25 | H | 3-5 | |
| 23/11/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 05/10/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/04/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 3-1 |
FC Orenburg| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 0-2 |
Zenit| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 60% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 100% | 80% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 5.8 | 80% | 28.6 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 25.8 | 80% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 | Zenit | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 5.2 | 80% | 26.8 | 60% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.0 | 80% | 4.0 | 40% | 23.8 | 60% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 6 |  Baltika | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 9.2 | 40% | 2.6 | 20% | 25.6 | 80% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 37% |
| 7 |  Dynamo | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.4 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 65% |
| 8 |  Rubin | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.0 | 20% | 24.6 | 60% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 40% | 25.2 | 80% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 11 |  FC Rostov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.2 | 20% | 4.2 | 20% | 26.8 | 80% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 12 |  Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.8 | 50% | 27.4 | 80% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10.8 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 26.6 | 80% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 39% |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 27.4 | 80% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 |  Fakel | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 10.2 | 80% | 3.6 | 60% | 25.6 | 80% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.6 | 60% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 57% |