Pythia gives FC Porto B a 37% win probability against Benfica B in the Portugal: Segunda Liga on 2026-05-15, with 31% for the draw and 32% for Benfica B. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 3.5 cards (88%), Under 3.5 (80%).
Results analysis
FC Porto B finished 2-0 against Benfica B (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 31% draw and 32% away win. Picks that landed: Over 3.5 cards (88%), Under 3.5 (80%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto B win✓ Hit
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Benfica B win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.20
1.29
0.86
1.31
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.27
1.80
1.40
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
1.16
1.00
0.56
1.30
1.70
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.30
1.50
1.31
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.14
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.39
1.35
1.58
1.25
1.18
1.45
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.3%
2-0 ✓
7.2%
0-2
6.1%
FC Porto B goals ↓
Benfica B goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.8%
6.1%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.2%
7.9%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto B goals (down), columns = Benfica B goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maritimo
1.94
Torreense
1.74
Academico Viseu
1.74
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.15
Oliveirense
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
FC Porto B is 0.21 points better than Benfica B in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Academico Viseu
1.71
União de Leiria
1.53
Maritimo
1.47
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Farense
0.89
CF Os Belenenses
0.00
FC Porto B is 0.06 goals worse than Benfica B in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
CF Os Belenenses
0.50
Maritimo
0.85
Torreense
0.97
Academico Viseu
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Pacos Ferreira
1.41
Portimonense
1.44
Oliveirense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Leixoes
1.62
FC Porto B is 0.06 goals better than Benfica B in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
Maritimo
52%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Academico Viseu
49%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Oliveirense
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Pacos Ferreira
46%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
FC Porto B is 7.3 percentage points worse than Benfica B in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto B
For 3.4 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica B
For 5.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.2 · Against 15.5 · Total 31.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.3
5.0
4.9
5.1
18.8
14.2
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
7.5
10.0
6.7
5.8
6.4
5.3
19.0
15.5
20.8
vs Weaker (33)
11.3
9.7
12.2
4.6
4.2
4.9
18.7
13.9
22.9
% over line
62%
75%
56%
66%
64%
68%
62%
44%
75%
% under line
38%
25%
44%
34%
36%
32%
38%
56%
25%
This opponent (Benfica B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Benfica B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.7
8.1
5.5
5.0
6.0
19.8
18.5
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
9.0
-
9.0
5.7
5.6
5.8
15.0
1.0
22.0
vs Weaker (39)
9.4
10.7
7.8
5.4
4.8
6.1
20.6
20.1
21.3
% over line
46%
50%
43%
72%
68%
76%
52%
50%
56%
% under line
54%
50%
57%
28%
32%
24%
48%
50%
44%
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Farense
10.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.2
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Academico Viseu
10.1
Torreense
10.0
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.9
Oliveirense
9.7
Pacos Ferreira
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Benfica B
9.3
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.9
Leixoes
8.9
Maritimo
8.3
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
6.8
Benfica B
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Pacos Ferreira
6.2
Sporting CP B
6.1
Chaves
6.1
Felgueiras 1932
6.0
Maritimo
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Leixoes
5.9
Academico Viseu
5.9
Farense
5.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.8
União de Leiria
5.7
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Torreense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
CF Os Belenenses
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
30.5
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Pacos Ferreira
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Leixoes
23.9
Academico Viseu
22.2
Oliveirense
22.1
União de Leiria
21.1
Maritimo
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Felgueiras 1932
20.5
Penafiel
20.0
Benfica B
19.8
Portimonense
19.3
FC Porto B
18.8
Chaves
18.7
Feirense
18.1
Torreense
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.6%
Under 9.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
87.6%
Under 3.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 3.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (39)
€76m
BB (38)
€76m
FPB (36)
€57m
TOR (32)
€20m
AV (35)
€18m
MAR (26)
€15m
VIZ (31)
€12m
UDL (30)
€12m
FAR (32)
€11m
FEI (33)
€11m
POR (31)
€10m
CHA (29)
€9m
LEI (32)
€8m
F1 (28)
€8m
PEN (29)
€7m
OLI (30)
€7m
LL (27)
€6m
PF (24)
€6m
FC Porto B's squad is €19m less valuable than Benfica B's (€57m vs €76m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (14)
€37m
FPB (14)
€19m
BB (13)
€15m
AV (15)
€8m
TOR (13)
€6m
MAR (10)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
POR (9)
€5m
FEI (12)
€4m
CHA (10)
€4m
UDL (7)
€3m
FAR (13)
€3m
OLI (11)
€3m
PF (10)
€3m
LEI (12)
€3m
F1 (9)
€2m
PEN (9)
€2m
LL (10)
€2m
FC Porto B's attack is €5m more valuable than Benfica B's (€19m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCB (9)
€18m
FPB (7)
€10m
BB (8)
€8m
TOR (6)
€5m
UDL (9)
€3m
FEI (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
AV (6)
€2m
POR (8)
€2m
CHA (8)
€2m
FAR (5)
€2m
PEN (7)
€2m
LEI (6)
€2m
F1 (5)
€2m
VIZ (3)
€2m
LL (5)
€1m
OLI (6)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
FC Porto B's midfield is €2m more valuable than Benfica B's (€10m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (17)
€53m
FPB (15)
€27m
SCB (16)
€21m
TOR (13)
€9m
AV (14)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
FAR (14)
€6m
UDL (14)
€6m
VIZ (15)
€5m
FEI (14)
€4m
POR (14)
€4m
CHA (11)
€4m
F1 (14)
€4m
LEI (14)
€3m
PEN (13)
€3m
OLI (13)
€3m
LL (12)
€3m
PF (12)
€2m
FC Porto B's defence is €26m less valuable than Benfica B's (€27m vs €53m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Chaves
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses