FC Porto B are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, 26% for a draw and 21% for Penafiel. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the model’s most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability. Porto B have been strong at home against weaker opposition, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding only 0.5. Penafiel, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.6% with a 2% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.7% with a 1% edge).
Results analysis
The upset came early as Penafiel turned a 0-3 defeat into a 3-0 victory, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 53 percent, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score was 0-3, an away win. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4 percent, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3 percent, Under 6.5 at 98.1 percent, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 percent, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6 percent, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.3 percent, and Under 5.5 at 94.7 percent. The match finished with a clear away triumph.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto B win✗ Miss
53.0%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.92
Edge
+21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.30
1xBet
3.16
Marathonbet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Bet365
3.00
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.19
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.47
Dafabet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Betano
3.25
Penafiel win✓ Hit
20.5%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.33
Edge
-19.0%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.88
Dafabet
2.45
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto B
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.07
1.29
0.71
1.25
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.00
1.11
2.00
1.25
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
1.05
1.00
0.50
0.91
1.55
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.19
0.88
1.07
1.50
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
1.00
1.60
0.40
1.50
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.95
1.24
1.00
1.09
0.90
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
@ 1.34+6.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
@ 2.99-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 2.09+4.8%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.69-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.20
SBO
2.17
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.6%
@ 3.70+2.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
@ 1.24-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.00
Pinnacle
3.80
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
@ 1.83+1.2%
No
48.3%
@ 1.86-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.91
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.83
No
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 5.83+5.1%
1-0
10.7%@ 7.76+5.1%
2-0
10.0%@ 13.12+6.7%
2-1
9.7%@ 9.94+5.3%
0-0
8.2%@ 8.09+2.8%
0-1
5.7%@ 6.79-0.8%
3-0
5.6%@ 31.45+4.2%
1-2
5.6%@ 8.53+0.4%
FC Porto B goals ↓
Penafiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
5.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.7%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto B goals (down), columns = Penafiel goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
FC Porto B is 0.29 points better than Penafiel in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
FC Porto B is 0.12 goals better than Penafiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
FC Porto B is 0.09 goals worse than Penafiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
FC Porto B is 1.9 percentage points worse than Penafiel in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Porto B
For 3.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 14.8 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Porto B
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
21.9
19.0
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
8.4
11.0
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.7
27.8
29.0
27.0
vs Weaker (35)
11.3
9.7
12.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
19.8
15.7
22.9
% over line
64%
80%
56%
70%
72%
68%
74%
62%
82%
% under line
36%
20%
44%
30%
28%
32%
26%
38%
18%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
9.9
13.7
4.6
4.2
5.0
22.9
24.6
21.2
vs Stronger (13)
9.2
9.0
10.0
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.9
28.4
12.5
vs Similar (36)
13.2
11.3
14.4
4.8
4.1
5.5
22.3
19.8
23.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
79%
62%
100%
58%
44%
72%
61%
67%
56%
% under line
21%
38%
0%
42%
56%
28%
39%
33%
44%
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
57.4%
@ 1.93+9.2%
Under 9.5
42.6%
@ 1.80-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.7%
Under 3.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.4%
Under 21.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Porto B or Draw✗ Miss
79.5%
Avg Implied 60.7% · @ 1.53
Edge
+18.8%
53%
26%
21%
covers FC Porto B + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
FC Porto B or Penafiel✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.30
Edge
+2.3%
53%
26%
21%
covers FC Porto B + Penafiel
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Draw or Penafiel✓ Hit
47.0%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.36
Edge
-21.2%
53%
26%
21%
covers Draw + Penafiel
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Porto B over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.5%
@ 1.39+14.6%
Under
18.5%
@ 2.80-14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Pinnacle
2.82
FC Porto B over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.2%
@ 2.83+17.5%
Under
49.8%
@ 1.38-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.17
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.39
FC Porto B over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
23.9%
@ 6.96+10.6%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.07-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
7.30
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
FC Porto B over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 17.06+3.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.01-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
1xBet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Penafiel over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.1%
@ 1.29-10.0%
Under
37.9%
@ 3.33+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Penafiel over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 2.42-13.1%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.51+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.90
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
BetVictor
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Penafiel over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.5%
@ 5.68-8.9%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.12+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Penafiel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 18.00-3.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
1xBet
23.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Porto B, so a minus line means FC Porto B give that many goals of a start and Penafiel receive them. At -1, FC Porto B must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Porto B win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Porto B)Actual: Penafiel
FC Porto B -2
13.0%
@ 14.67+6.8%
Draw -2
16.7%
@ 8.07+5.5%
Penafiel +2
70.4%
@ 1.09-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Away
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (FC Porto B)Actual: Penafiel
FC Porto B -1
29.6%
@ 5.80+14.6%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 4.09+2.0%
Penafiel +1
47.0%
@ 1.37-16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.45
Away
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
Handicap +1 (FC Porto B)Actual: Penafiel
FC Porto B +1
79.5%
@ 1.52+21.9%
Draw +1
13.0%
@ 3.79-10.2%
Penafiel -1
7.5%
@ 4.54-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
Handicap +2 (FC Porto B)Actual: Penafiel
FC Porto B +2
92.5%
@ 1.16+14.4%
Draw +2
5.5%
@ 6.67-8.0%
Penafiel -2
2.0%
@ 10.68-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Away
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto B
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.56
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.52
0.52
0.60
0.30
0.45
0.73
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.56
0.38
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.20
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.48
0.55
0.45
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.43+2.4%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.64-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
William Hil
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.1%
@ 3.00+0.2%
Under 1.5
68.9%
@ 1.35-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.16
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Under
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 7.64-2.0%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto B over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 2.31+5.0%
Under
54.7%
@ 1.56-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
FC Porto B over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 7.64-0.6%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.06+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
FC Porto B over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 29.00-97.8%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.7%
@ 2.07-5.0%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.68+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.3%
@ 6.54-4.9%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.08+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 20.17-3.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto B
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.29
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.56
1.50
0.50
1.20
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
0.43
0.52
0.40
0.20
0.45
0.82
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.76
0.45
0.64
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto B) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.1%
@ 1.27+3.1%
Under 0.5
23.9%
@ 3.42-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.55
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.36
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.4%
@ 2.25+0.1%
Under 1.5
58.6%
@ 1.58-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.3%
@ 4.99-2.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
@ 1.14+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto B over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.2%
@ 1.94+6.4%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.77-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
FC Porto B over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 5.72+1.5%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.11-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.15
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
FC Porto B over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 16.00-2.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.4%
@ 1.76-5.4%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.96+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
1.99
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.68-7.5%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.16+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 13.42-4.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
92.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
-
+14.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
90.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
+4.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.7%
1.16
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
888Sport
1.06
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
81.5%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+14.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
79.5%
1.53
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
+18.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.27
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
76.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-10.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.5%
1.34
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
BetVictor
1.55
Betfair
1.53
+13.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.6%
1.30
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.4%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.4%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-12.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Porto B · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Duarte Cunha40%
Leonardo Vonić33%
Brayan Caicedo33%
André Miranda25%
Tiago Andrade22%
Gonçalo Sousa22%
Bernardo Lima20%
Mateus Mide20%
Kauê14%
Domingos Andrade11%
João Teixeira10%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Lipe0%
Gabriel Brás0%
Luis Gomes0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
Pedro Lima0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Tiago Silva0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayan Caicedo67%
Pedro Lima67%
Luis Gomes40%
André Oliveira40%
Mateus Mide40%
Yann Karamoh33%
Yoan Pereira33%
Dinis Rodrigues29%
Kaio Henrique27%
André Miranda25%
Leonardo Vonić22%
Bernardo Lima20%
Trofim Melnichenko12%
Domingos Andrade11%
Tiago Andrade11%
Gonçalo Sousa11%
Lipe10%
João Costa0%
Gabriel Brás0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
João Teixeira0%
Kauê0%
Tiago Silva0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Lima33%
André Miranda25%
Gonçalo Sousa22%
Gabriel Brás20%
Luis Gomes20%
Bernardo Lima20%
Mateus Mide20%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Domingos Andrade0%
Leonardo Vonić0%
Lipe0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Tiago Andrade0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
Trofim Melnichenko0%
João Teixeira0%
Kauê0%
Brayan Caicedo0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Tiago Silva0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Trofim Melnichenko12%
Tiago Andrade11%
Yann Karamoh0%
João Costa0%
Domingos Andrade0%
Leonardo Vonić0%
Lipe0%
Gabriel Brás0%
Luis Gomes0%
António Ribeiro0%
Gonçalo Ribeiro0%
Dinis Rodrigues0%
André Oliveira0%
João Teixeira0%
Gonçalo Sousa0%
Kauê0%
Brayan Caicedo0%
Pedro Lima0%
Kaio Henrique0%
Bernardo Lima0%
Tiago Silva0%
André Miranda0%
Yoan Pereira0%
Duarte Cunha0%
Eduardo Ferreira0%
Mateus Mide0%
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
FC Porto B's squad is €24m more valuable than Penafiel's (€29m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
FC Porto B's attack is €11m more valuable than Penafiel's (€13m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
FC Porto B's midfield is €6m more valuable than Penafiel's (€7m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
FC Porto B's defence is €6m more valuable than Penafiel's (€9m vs €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
Portimonense
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
Leixoes
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves