The model favours an away win, with a 50 % chance for Lokomotiv, 25 % for a home win and 25 % for a draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 23 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.6 % probability. FC Rostov, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.4 goals scored and concedes 1.2, while Lokomotiv, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 99.6 %, Under 10.5 corners at 99.0 %, Under 7.5 at 98.7 % (hit), Under 9.5 corners at 97.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3 % (hit), Under 6.5 at 96.3 % (hit), Under 8.5 corners at 94.6 %, and Under 5.5 at 90.9 % (hit).
Results analysis
The upset came as FC Rostov edged Lokomotiv 1-0, a result that stunned the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an Away win at 50 % probability, which proved wrong. The home side’s recent form, a win after a defeat, proved decisive, while Lokomotiv’s five-match slump continued. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.3 %, Under 6.5 at 96.3 % and Under 5.5 at 90.9 %. The match’s final score of 1-0 matched the model’s most likely 1-1 prediction, but the actual outcome was a home victory, confirming the model’s under-goal predictions and highlighting the surprise of the home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Rostov win✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Rostov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
0.79
1.07
1.50
0.94
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.86
0.33
0.67
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.12
0.67
1.22
1.88
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.37
1.50
0.86
1.56
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.69
1.50
1.00
1.86
2.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.13
1.71
0.86
1.50
1.38
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
FC Rostov goals ↓
Lokomotiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.5%
7.8%
4.8%
2.2%
1
4.7%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.6%
6.5%
6.0%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.5%
2.7%
2.5%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Rostov goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Lokomotiv
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Chita
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Tver
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akron
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Murom
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Rostov is 0.45 points worse than Lokomotiv in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.70).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
KDV
2.33
Luki-Energiya
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Akhmat
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Chita
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Akron
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Ural
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Strogino
0.00
FC Rostov is 0.32 goals worse than Lokomotiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
KDV
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
Baltika
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Chita
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
FC Rostov is 0.20 goals worse than Lokomotiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Rostov
For 4.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv
For 5.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.6 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Rostov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.5
8.3
4.7
5.0
4.5
28.8
29.1
28.5
vs Stronger (14)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.2
4.6
5.9
26.5
29.2
23.8
vs Similar (27)
7.2
7.9
6.6
4.4
5.4
3.7
29.8
29.0
30.5
vs Weaker (9)
11.7
10.0
12.5
4.8
4.7
4.8
29.0
29.0
29.0
% over line
32%
41%
25%
64%
68%
61%
89%
100%
80%
% under line
68%
59%
75%
36%
32%
39%
11%
0%
20%
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.6
9.5
4.4
4.6
4.2
27.6
28.3
26.8
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
6.0
8.0
7.5
12.0
3.0
28.5
29.0
28.0
vs Similar (23)
8.5
7.9
9.3
4.2
4.0
4.5
27.7
28.1
27.3
vs Weaker (25)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.4
4.7
4.1
27.4
28.4
26.3
% over line
46%
37%
56%
50%
56%
44%
84%
84%
83%
% under line
54%
63%
44%
50%
44%
56%
16%
16%
17%
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Rodina Moskva
11.8
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.4
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.1
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Akhmat
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Veles
9.0
Ural
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
FC UFA
8.7
Rubin
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
Tekstilshchik
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Fakel
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Veles
4.2
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Zenit
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Akron
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Rodina Moskva
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.6
FC Krasnodar
29.2
Akhmat
29.0
FC Rostov
28.9
Rubin
28.8
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Orenburg
28.3
Fakel
27.7
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Akron
27.4
Lokomotiv
27.4
Zenit
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
2.4%
Under 9.5
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.8%
Under 3.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.1%
Under 21.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Rostov or Draw✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers FC Rostov + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov or Lokomotiv✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers FC Rostov + Lokomotiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lokomotiv✗ Miss
75.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Rostov, so a minus line means FC Rostov give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv receive them. At -1, FC Rostov must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Rostov win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Rostov)Actual: Lokomotiv
FC Rostov -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.1%
Lokomotiv +2
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Rostov)Actual: Draw
FC Rostov -1
10.5%
Draw -1
14.2%
Lokomotiv +1
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Rostov)Actual: FC Rostov
FC Rostov +1
49.7%
Draw +1
21.5%
Lokomotiv -1
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Rostov)Actual: FC Rostov
FC Rostov +2
71.2%
Draw +2
15.6%
Lokomotiv -2
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Rostov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.43
0.64
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.33
0.67
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.93
0.50
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.77
0.83
0.67
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.60
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Rostov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.36
0.43
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.33
0.56
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.57
0.36
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.92
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 8.5 corners
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Rostov
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Timur Suleymanov33%
Daniil Shantaliy33%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Viktor Melekhin17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Olakunle Olusegun0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantin Kuchaev50%
Oumar Sako50%
Viktor Melekhin50%
Ygor Nogueira33%
Aleksey Mironov17%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Danila Prokhin0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Konstantin Kuchaev33%
Andrey Langovich33%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Ivan Komarov0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Timur Suleymanov33%
Olakunle Olusegun33%
Ivan Komarov33%
Maksim Mukhin25%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Ronaldo0%
Andrey Langovich0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Lokomotiv
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Sergey Pinyaev17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksey Batrakov75%
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Maksim Nenakhov33%
Ilya Lantratov33%
Vladislav Golubev25%
Ilya Eremeev20%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Lucas Fasson17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Zelimkhan Bakaev17%
Aleksandr Silyanov17%
Vadim Rakov17%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Gerzino Nyamsi0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gerzino Nyamsi40%
Vadim Rakov33%
Aleksey Batrakov25%
Georgi Dzhikiya0%
Maksim Nenakhov0%
Aleksandr Rudenko0%
Ilya Lantratov0%
Anton Mitryushkin0%
Zelimkhan Bakaev0%
Aleksandr Silyanov0%
Evgeniy Morozov0%
Sergey Pinyaev0%
Lucas Fasson0%
Artem Karpukas0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nikita Saltykov0%
Ilya Eremeev0%
Vladislav Golubev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Rostov's squad is €36m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€32m vs €68m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Rostov's attack is €7m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€14m vs €21m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Rostov's midfield is €3m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€5m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Rostov's defence is €26m less valuable than Lokomotiv's (€13m vs €40m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
Krylia Sovetov
Rodina Moskva
Akron
Fakel