Pythia gives FC Santa Coloma a 72% win probability against Ordino in the Andorra: 1a Divisió on 2026-05-10, with 18% for the draw and 10% for Ordino. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%), Home win (72%).
Results analysis
FC Santa Coloma finished 0-1 against Ordino (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 72%home win, 18% draw and 10% away win. Missed: Over 1.5 (84%), Home win (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Santa Coloma win✗ Miss
71.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ordino win✓ Hit
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Santa Coloma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.10
2.00
1.33
2.07
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.61
1.50
1.50
1.90
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.67
0.50
3.00
0.20
2.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.77
1.31
1.69
1.00
1.86
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
1.94
0.44
2.00
0.44
1.89
vs Similar (11)
2.27
1.55
2.43
1.29
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 3.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.2%
1-0
8.8%
1-1
8.6%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
5.6%
0-0
4.7%
FC Santa Coloma goals ↓
Ordino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
2.5%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
1
8.8%
8.6%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
2
11%
9.4%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.2%
7.6%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
4
5.6%
4.6%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Santa Coloma goals (down), columns = Ordino goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
UE Santa Coloma
2.16
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Pas de la Casa
0.50
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
FC Santa Coloma is 0.92 points better than Ordino in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
UE Santa Coloma
1.92
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
Pas de la Casa
0.00
FC Santa Coloma is 0.75 goals better than Ordino in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
UE Santa Coloma
0.52
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Pas de la Casa
1.50
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
FC Santa Coloma is 0.92 goals better than Ordino in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Santa Coloma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.56
0.60
0.70
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
0.67
0.17
0.60
0.20
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ordino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ordino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.38
0.81
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.06
0.94
0.00
1.00
0.11
0.89
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.86
0.57
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ordino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home win
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →