The model picks a home win for FC Santa Coloma, with a 58 % chance, while a draw sits at 25 % and an away victory at 18 %. The expected total is 2.7 goals, so a 2-goal match is most likely, though the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9 %. FC Santa Coloma, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.5 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded, whereas Penya Encarnada, away against a stronger opponent, scores just 0.44 and concedes 2.22. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (94.0 %), Home +2 handicap (93.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.8 %), and Under 4.5 (85.8 %). Both teams have recently lost two straight matches, with Santa Coloma losing 0-2 to Ranger’s and Penya Encarnada losing 0-2 to Atlètic Club d'Escaldes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Santa Coloma win
60.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada win
15.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Santa Coloma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.13
1.80
1.33
1.80
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.44
1.38
1.75
1.50
1.12
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.50
2.50
0.33
2.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
1.13
1.80
0.87
1.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
2.07
0.57
2.14
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.29
1.62
1.50
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.3%
Under 1.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
2-0
11.4%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.4%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
4.5%
FC Santa Coloma goals ↓
Penya Encarnada goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
4.4%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.3%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Santa Coloma goals (down), columns = Penya Encarnada goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
2.25
Ranger's
2.00
FC Santa Coloma
1.83
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.42
Casa de Portugal
1.22
Penya Encarnada
1.00
Ordino
0.92
Carroi
0.72
Esperança d'Andorra
0.65
Sporting Escaldes
0.00
FC Santa Coloma is 0.83 points better than Penya Encarnada in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.96
Ranger's
1.92
FC Santa Coloma
1.88
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.29
Casa de Portugal
1.16
Ordino
1.12
Penya Encarnada
0.79
Esperança d'Andorra
0.77
Carroi
0.60
Sporting Escaldes
0.50
FC Santa Coloma is 1.08 goals better than Penya Encarnada in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Santa Coloma
0.83
Ranger's
0.92
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1.00
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1.08
Casa de Portugal
1.44
Penya Encarnada
1.71
Ordino
1.75
Esperança d'Andorra
1.85
Carroi
2.20
Sporting Escaldes
2.50
FC Santa Coloma is 0.87 goals better than Penya Encarnada in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Santa Coloma or Draw
84.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
16%
covers FC Santa Coloma + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma or Penya Encarnada
76.1%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
16%
covers FC Santa Coloma + Penya Encarnada
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Penya Encarnada
39.4%
Avg Implied -
61%
24%
16%
covers Draw + Penya Encarnada
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
Under
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5
Over
29.5%
Under
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Santa Coloma, so a minus line means FC Santa Coloma give that many goals of a start and Penya Encarnada receive them. At -1, FC Santa Coloma must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Santa Coloma win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Santa Coloma)
FC Santa Coloma -2
17.7%
Draw -2
19.0%
Penya Encarnada +2
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Santa Coloma)
FC Santa Coloma -1
36.7%
Draw -1
23.9%
Penya Encarnada +1
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Santa Coloma)
FC Santa Coloma +1
84.4%
Draw +1
10.3%
Penya Encarnada -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Santa Coloma)
FC Santa Coloma +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.0%
Penya Encarnada -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Santa Coloma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.47
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
0.50
0.62
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.08
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.53
0.27
0.60
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.50
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.0%
Under 0.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.1%
Under 1.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 HT
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Santa Coloma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.73
1.33
0.87
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.42
2.00
0.17
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Penya Encarnada) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Penya Encarnada
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.87
1.20
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
1.27
0.43
1.43
0.25
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Santa Coloma) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.8%
Under 0.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
56.6%
Under 1.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.2%
Under 2.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 0.5 2H
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Santa Coloma over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penya Encarnada over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (25)
€4m
RAN (24)
€4m
ACD (25)
€3m
FSC (28)
€3m
PE (26)
€3m
CAR (21)
€2m
ED (16)
€2m
ORD (22)
€2m
SE (1)
€0m
FC Santa Coloma and Penya Encarnada have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ICD (9)
€2m
FSC (10)
€2m
RAN (8)
€1m
ORD (6)
€1m
ED (6)
€1m
ACD (5)
€1m
PE (6)
€1m
CAR (4)
€0m
SE (1)
€0m
FC Santa Coloma and Penya Encarnada have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACD (8)
€1m
RAN (4)
€1m
CAR (7)
€1m
ICD (4)
€1m
PE (5)
€1m
FSC (5)
€1m
ED (2)
€0m
ORD (4)
€0m
SE (0)
€0m
FC Santa Coloma and Penya Encarnada have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (15)
€2m
RAN (12)
€2m
ACD (12)
€2m
ICD (12)
€2m
FSC (13)
€1m
CAR (10)
€1m
ED (8)
€1m
ORD (12)
€1m
SE (0)
€0m
FC Santa Coloma and Penya Encarnada have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Andorra: 1a Divisió 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 1a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
Esperança d'Andorra
Sporting Escaldes
Ranger's
Ordino
Carroi
Casa de Portugal