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FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 5-0
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
Vs
48%
29%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Russia: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives FC Sochi a 48% win probability against Arsenal Tula in the Russia: First League on 2026-07-26, with 29% for the draw and 23% for Arsenal Tula. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (78%), Over 1.5 (70%).

Results analysis

FC Sochi finished 5-0 against Arsenal Tula (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 29% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (70%). Missed: Under 3.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC Sochi win✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tula win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC SochiFC Sochi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L01L10W10W21W02L31W12L11DH·FC 14/03A·BAL21/03H·RUB06/04A·CSK12/04A·FC 17/04H·KRY21/04A·DYN26/04H·FC 03/05A·ZEN10/05H·AKH17/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.001.001.870.932.13
vs Stronger (16)0.752.440.882.380.622.50
vs Similar (14)1.211.501.141.291.291.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W12L11D02L00D11D22D01L14L01LH·FK 29/03H·FAK05/04A·TOR12/04A·SHI18/04H·CHE22/04A·SPA25/04H·ROT04/05A·ENI11/05H·ROD16/05H·FK 19/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.301.201.401.131.20
vs Stronger (3)1.672.331.503.002.001.00
vs Similar (21)0.861.290.901.200.821.36
vs Weaker (6)2.000.832.001.002.000.67
Clean sheet %13% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.0%
Under 3.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
10.4%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.7%
FC Sochi goals ↓
Arsenal Tula goals →
01234
010%7.3%4.0%1.3%0.3%
112%14%5.8%1.8%0.4%
29.7%9.1%4.2%1.3%0.3%
34.7%4.4%2.1%0.6%0.2%
41.7%1.6%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Sochi goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tula goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ural
1.79
FC Sochi
1.68
Rotor Volgograd
1.65
Nizhny Novgorod
1.62
KAMAZ
1.44
Spartak Kostroma
1.44
Enisey
1.44
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.41
Torpedo Moskva
1.35
Tekstilshchik
1.34
Chelyabinsk
1.29
Leningradets
1.29
FK Neftekhimik
1.26
Veles
1.25
Ska-khabarovsk
1.18
Arsenal Tula
1.15
FC UFA
1.12
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.09
FC Sochi is 0.53 points better than Arsenal Tula in terms of average points per game (1.68 vs 1.15).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ural
1.50
FC Sochi
1.46
Nizhny Novgorod
1.40
Rotor Volgograd
1.38
KAMAZ
1.35
Spartak Kostroma
1.35
Chelyabinsk
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.18
Tekstilshchik
1.16
Leningradets
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.09
Enisey
1.09
Veles
1.09
Ska-khabarovsk
1.03
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.03
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
FC UFA
0.97
FC Sochi is 0.22 goals better than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rotor Volgograd
0.76
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.82
Ural
0.91
FC Sochi
0.92
Nizhny Novgorod
0.96
KAMAZ
1.00
Enisey
1.03
FC UFA
1.12
Torpedo Moskva
1.15
Tekstilshchik
1.16
Chelyabinsk
1.18
Leningradets
1.20
FK Neftekhimik
1.21
Spartak Kostroma
1.21
Veles
1.24
Arsenal Tula
1.29
Ska-khabarovsk
1.36
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.41
FC Sochi is 0.37 goals better than Arsenal Tula in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.29).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
FK Neftekhimik
51%
Arsenal Tula
50%
Enisey
50%
Ska-khabarovsk
50%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Torpedo Moskva
48%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FC SochiFC Sochi

For 3.9 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.9

🚩 Corners

16031151155755621261114101814161012111472149A·ZENH·FC A·DYNH·KRYA·FC A·CSKH·RUBA·BALH·FC A·NIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

1003133228432223331243510434563A·ZENH·FC A·DYNH·KRYA·FC A·CSKH·RUBA·BALH·FC A·NIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 29.1

⚠️ Fouls

3401591613131213151712268151818161811151124292528293433342926A·ZENH·FC A·DYNH·KRYA·FC A·CSKH·RUBA·BALH·FC A·NIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula

For 3.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

1103811H·FAK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.2

🟨 Cards

110332124331251116531563663621136H·FAKH·FK H·CHEA·FC H·CHAA·ROTH·URAA·CHEH·TORA·FK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

FC SochiFC Sochi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.210.28.24.54.54.527.126.128.0
vs Stronger (18)9.29.88.84.34.83.927.826.828.9
vs Similar (28)9.110.77.64.44.44.226.325.427.1
vs Weaker (4)---6.03.58.5---
% over line48%60%38%64%58%71%94%93%94%
% under line52%40%62%36%42%29%6%7%6%
This opponent (Arsenal Tula) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.011.0-3.13.03.2---
vs Stronger (7)---3.02.44.5---
vs Similar (34)11.011.0-2.93.32.6---
vs Weaker (9)---3.93.05.0---
% over line100%100%-44%48%40%---
% under line0%0%-56%52%60%---
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Arsenal Tula
12.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.4
Veles
9.4
FC Sochi
9.2
Ural
9.0
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Leningradets
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
8.0
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
FC UFA
6.7
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.0
Veles
4.7
FC Sochi
4.6
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.4
KAMAZ
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.4
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.7
Enisey
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Ska-khabarovsk
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
FK Neftekhimik
3.3
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
Nizhny Novgorod
28.4
FC Sochi
27.1
Ural
26.8
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.4%
Under 9.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.0%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (34)
€29m
NN (33)
€24m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (15)
€12m
FS (12)
€9m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€8m
NN (5)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (15)
€11m
NN (13)
€9m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

FC Sochi vs Arsenal Tula · H/A from FS
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HFS Vs Arsenal Tula5-1
13/10/24AArsenal Tula Vs FS1-1

FC SochiFC Sochi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26HFS Vs Akhmat1-1
10/05/26AZenit Vs FS2-1
03/05/26HFS Vs FC Orenburg3-1
26/04/26ADynamo Vs FS2-0
21/04/26HFS Vs Krylia Sovetov2-1
17/04/26AFC Rostov Vs FS0-1
12/04/26ACSKA Moscow Vs FS0-1
06/04/26HFS Vs Rubin0-1
21/03/26ABaltika Vs FS4-0
14/03/26HFS Vs FC Krasnodar1-2

Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26HAT Vs FK Neftekhimik0-1
16/05/26HAT Vs Rodina Moskva1-4
11/05/26AEnisey Vs AT1-0
04/05/26HAT Vs Rotor Volgograd2-2
25/04/26ASpartak Kostroma Vs AT1-1
22/04/26HAT Vs Chelyabinsk0-0
18/04/26AShinnik Yaroslavl Vs AT2-0
12/04/26ATorpedo Moskva Vs AT1-1
05/04/26HAT Vs Fakel1-2
29/03/26HAT Vs FK Sokol Saratov3-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
Russia: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.16
HomeLLWWD1.31
AwayLWWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%29%
AVG goals2.903.002.79
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.281.501.04
Conceded1.621.501.75
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners9.1610.208.19
Cards4.554.644.46
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Russia: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL1.00
HomeLDDLL0.96
AwayWDLDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%16%24%
AVG goals2.262.202.32
Over 1.5 %68%60%76%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %20%28%12%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.261.201.32
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners11.0011.00-
Cards4.194.004.39

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Nizhny NovgorodNizhny Novgorod412
100%
3.0
133+10
4.0
100%
100%
50%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
-
0%
24
12393.20.8
-
2Rotor VolgogradRotor Volgograd510
60%
2.0
94+5
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.8
-
3FC SochiFC Sochi49
75%
2.2
93+6
3.0
75%
75%
25%
10.5
100%
5.5
100%
-
0%
29
98112.20.8
-
4UralUral48
50%
2.0
71+6
2.0
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.2
-
5EniseyEnisey46
25%
1.5
85+3
3.2
75%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
50%
6Spartak KostromaSpartak Kostroma46
25%
1.5
64+2
2.5
75%
50%
50%
12.0
100%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
49%
7Volga UlyanovskVolga Ulyanovsk46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
8VelesVeles46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
100%
75%
25%
3.0
0%
1.0
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
9FK NeftekhimikFK Neftekhimik56
40%
1.2
39-6
2.4
60%
20%
20%
6.0
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.61.8
51%
10LeningradetsLeningradets45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
50%
0%
10.0
100%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
11Shinnik YaroslavlShinnik Yaroslavl45
25%
1.2
56-1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
12FC UFAFC UFA45
25%
1.2
35-2
2.0
75%
25%
0%
10.0
100%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.81.2
-
13Arsenal TulaArsenal Tula55
20%
1.0
38-5
2.2
40%
40%
40%
11.0
100%
6.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
50%
14Torpedo MoskvaTorpedo Moskva44
25%
1.0
64+2
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
48%
15Ska-khabarovskSka-khabarovsk53
20%
0.6
38-5
2.2
60%
40%
20%
6.5
50%
2.5
50%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
50%
16ChelyabinskChelyabinsk43
25%
0.8
410-6
3.5
100%
75%
50%
11.0
100%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
17KAMAZKAMAZ42
0%
0.5
47-3
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
18TekstilshchikTekstilshchik42
0%
0.5
14-3
1.2
25%
25%
25%
12.0
100%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.21.0
-
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →

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