FC Sochi are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 72 % chance of a home win, 19 % for a draw and 9 % for a Chelyabinsk victory. The 3-goal average and a 23 % probability that the match will finish with two goals point to a modestly high scoring game, yet the most likely scoreline is 2-0, a 12.7 % probability. Sochi’s home form shows they average 1.56 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Chelyabinsk, playing away, average 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s suggested picks reflect this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (99.0 %), Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Home +2 handicap (97.2 %), Under 6.5 (96.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.1 %) and Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.0 %). Recent form notes that Sochi are on a four-game winning run, while Chelyabinsk have just drawn.
Results analysis
FC Sochi extended their five-game winning run, beating Chelyabinsk 2-1 to confirm the model’s prediction that the home side would triumph. The favourite, Home win, carried a 72% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.7%, Home +2 handicap at 97.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.2%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.9%. All eight picks settled as predicted. The final score of 2-1 matched the model’s most likely outcome of 2-0, with the 2-1 result still within the high-probability range.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Sochi win✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.55
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Dafabet
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied 23.7% · @ 3.91
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Chelyabinsk win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied 16.6% · @ 5.58
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.97
Marathonbet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.80
Dafabet
5.60
Superbet
5.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Sochi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.70
1.43
1.50
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.44
1.20
3.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (19)
1.68
1.42
1.62
0.75
1.73
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.37
1.36
1.64
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.37
1.36
1.64
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
@ 1.26+9.2%
Under 1.5
18.5%
@ 3.29-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.94+9.8%
Under 2.5
41.4%
@ 1.85-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
SBO
1.94
Superbet
1.85
Under
SBO
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
@ 3.26+8.1%
Under 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.27-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.47
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
@ 1.96+0.5%
No
52.4%
@ 1.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
No
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%@ 6.44+6.1%
1-0
10.2%@ 5.69+2.7%
3-0
9.8%@ 10.62+5.7%
2-1 ✓
9.3%@ 7.58+3.7%
1-1
8.9%@ 6.79+2.6%
3-1
7.2%@ 12.60+3.8%
4-0
5.6%@ 20.35+3.5%
0-0
5.6%@ 9.68+1.2%
FC Sochi goals ↓
Chelyabinsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
10%
8.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
9.8%
7.2%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.6%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Sochi goals (down), columns = Chelyabinsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
FC Sochi is 1.90 points better than Chelyabinsk in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
FC Sochi is 1.29 goals better than Chelyabinsk in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
FC Sochi is 1.17 goals better than Chelyabinsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
FC Sochi is 4.5 percentage points better than Chelyabinsk in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Sochi
For 4.4 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelyabinsk
For 5.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
FC Sochi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.2
8.3
3.8
4.0
3.7
27.1
26.1
28.0
vs Stronger (16)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.9
4.2
3.6
26.8
25.2
28.5
vs Similar (31)
8.4
9.7
7.2
3.7
4.2
3.2
27.3
26.8
27.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
-
10.0
4.7
0.0
7.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
62%
41%
56%
54%
58%
94%
93%
94%
% under line
48%
38%
59%
44%
46%
42%
6%
7%
6%
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (45)
11.0
11.0
-
2.2
2.6
1.8
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.0
11.0
-
2.3
2.6
1.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
31%
36%
26%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
69%
64%
74%
-
-
-
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.8%
@ 1.89-1.4%
Under 9.5
52.2%
@ 1.83+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.8%
Under 21.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Sochi or Draw✓ Hit
90.6%
Avg Implied 83.6% · @ 1.10
Edge
+7.0%
72%
19%
9%
covers FC Sochi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
SBO
1.07
FC Sochi or Chelyabinsk✓ Hit
81.4%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
+5.1%
72%
19%
9%
covers FC Sochi + Chelyabinsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
SBO
1.17
Draw or Chelyabinsk✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.29
Edge
-12.1%
72%
19%
9%
covers Draw + Chelyabinsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
SBO
2.21
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.0%
@ 1.11+8.1%
Under
10.0%
@ 5.03-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
4.75
FC Sochi over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.1%
@ 1.73+13.0%
Under
32.9%
@ 2.04-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
FC Sochi over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 3.29+12.6%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.28-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.53
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Superbet
2.95
Under
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
FC Sochi over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 7.30+7.8%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.03-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 1.68-3.1%
Under
48.0%
@ 2.06+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.43-4.0%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.16+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 9.70-96.2%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.70
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Sochi, so a minus line means FC Sochi give that many goals of a start and Chelyabinsk receive them. At -1, FC Sochi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Sochi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Sochi)Actual: Chelyabinsk
FC Sochi -2
27.8%
@ 5.15+10.4%
Draw -2
21.6%
@ 4.70+2.5%
Chelyabinsk +2
50.6%
@ 1.41-12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.15
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.41
Handicap -1 (FC Sochi)Actual: Draw
FC Sochi -1
49.4%
@ 2.54+14.1%
Draw -1
22.6%
@ 3.40-3.7%
Chelyabinsk +1
28.0%
@ 2.33-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.54
Draw
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.33
Handicap +1 (FC Sochi)Actual: FC Sochi
FC Sochi +1
90.6%
@ 1.10+18.9%
Draw +1
6.6%
@ 4.50-10.9%
Chelyabinsk -1
2.8%
@ 7.30-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (FC Sochi)Actual: FC Sochi
FC Sochi +2
97.2%
Draw +2
2.2%
Chelyabinsk -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Sochi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.57
0.64
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.89
0.40
1.20
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.68
0.75
0.38
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.37+9.3%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 2.84-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
Superbet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.9%
@ 2.81+8.9%
Under 1.5
58.1%
@ 1.38-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.97
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Superbet
2.57
Under
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 6.82+3.9%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.04-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
5.65
Under
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
67.0%
@ 1.67+11.4%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.09-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.02
FC Sochi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 4.50+7.8%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.17-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.20
Under
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
FC Sochi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 2.98-2.2%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.34+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.25
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Under
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Sochi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.86
0.86
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.56
0.80
1.80
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.74
0.88
0.38
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelyabinsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelyabinsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.50
0.79
0.25
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.37
0.67
0.50
0.79
0.25
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.9%
@ 1.21+7.8%
Under 0.5
17.1%
@ 3.65-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Superbet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
50.4%
@ 2.13+6.8%
Under 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.65-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.07
Under
Superbet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.8%
@ 4.53+3.7%
Under 2.5
76.2%
@ 1.14-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
74.5%
@ 1.45+11.1%
Under
25.5%
@ 2.51-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.47
FC Sochi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.9%
@ 3.22+9.2%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.29-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
FC Sochi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 8.20+3.8%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.03-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Under
1xBet
1.03
Chelyabinsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.6%
@ 2.43-8.1%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.48+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.37
Under
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Chelyabinsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 9.70-4.0%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
8.90
Under
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Chelyabinsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.5%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
90.6%
1.10
1xBet
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
SBO
1.07
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
90.6%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+18.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.04
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
81.4%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
SBO
1.17
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
80.8%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.8%
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.33
-
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+3.1%
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.5%
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
-
-
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Home win
72.0%
1.55
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Dafabet
1.53
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.17
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
-
-7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.34
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 2H goals
70.4%
1.48
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
-
-
+8.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Sochi · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladimir Iljin18%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Martin Kramarič17%
François Kamano13%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
Mikhail Ignatov8%
Dmitriy Vasiljev8%
Kirill Kravtsov6%
Marcelo Alves6%
Maksim Mukhin5%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov5%
Zakhar Fedorov5%
Kirill Zaika4%
Roman Ezhov0%
Vyacheslav Litvinov0%
Artem Makarchuk0%
Ruslan Magal0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Yahia Attiyat Allah0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yahia Attiyat Allah50%
Vyacheslav Litvinov36%
Marcelo Alves33%
Gustavo Furtado33%
Nabil Aberdin29%
Kirill Zaika24%
Artem Makarchuk24%
Dmitriy Vasiljev21%
Kirill Kravtsov19%
Vladimir Iljin18%
Saúl Guarirapa17%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov14%
Sergey Volkov14%
Roman Ezhov12%
Aleksandr Degtev12%
Ignacio Saavedra11%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
Martin Kramarič11%
Yury Dyupin10%
Maksim Mukhin10%
Zakhar Fedorov10%
Aleksandr Kovalenko9%
Mikhail Ignatov8%
François Kamano7%
Ruslan Magal0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Artem Korneev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruslan Magal19%
Vladimir Iljin18%
Gustavo Furtado17%
Yahia Attiyat Allah12%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
François Kamano7%
Artem Makarchuk6%
Ignacio Saavedra6%
Sergey Volkov5%
Mikhail Ignatov4%
Dmitriy Vasiljev4%
Kirill Zaika0%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov0%
Roman Ezhov0%
Vyacheslav Litvinov0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Kirill Kravtsov0%
Marcelo Alves0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Zakhar Fedorov0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladimir Iljin27%
Kirill Kravtsov12%
Ignacio Saavedra11%
Anton Zinkovskiy7%
Vyacheslav Litvinov7%
Mikhail Ignatov4%
François Kamano0%
Kirill Zaika0%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov0%
Roman Ezhov0%
Artem Makarchuk0%
Ruslan Magal0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Yahia Attiyat Allah0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Marcelo Alves0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Dmitriy Vasiljev0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Zakhar Fedorov0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Sochi's squad is €6m more valuable than Chelyabinsk's (€15m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Sochi and Chelyabinsk have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Sochi and Chelyabinsk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Sochi's defence is €5m more valuable than Chelyabinsk's (€9m vs €3m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Nizhny Novgorod
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Ska-khabarovsk