FC Sochi’s nine-game winning streak fuels a confident home campaign, while Nizhny Novgorod’s recent draw leaves them searching for momentum. The model favours a home win, with a 60% chance, a 21% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of an away victory. The expected total goals sit at 3.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Sochi, carrying a 9.2% probability. Sochi averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Nizhny Novgorod averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded on the road versus similar teams. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 7.5 at 96.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.3%, Under 6.5 at 91.7% and Home +2 handicap at 91.6%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Sochi win
59.9%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.54
Edge
+23.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
2.62
Dafabet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.20
Edge
-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.34
Pinnacle
3.27
Dafabet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Superbet
3.15
Nizhny Novgorod win
19.6%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.63
Edge
-15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.70
Dafabet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.62
Marathonbet
2.57
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Sochi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.63
1.50
1.36
1.38
1.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.38
1.25
3.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.70
1.40
1.67
0.78
1.73
1.91
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.53
1.13
1.20
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.25
0.86
2.86
vs Similar (15)
2.07
1.27
2.71
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.3%
@ 1.27+17.6%
Under 1.5
10.7%
@ 3.23-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.14
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.7%
@ 1.95+23.4%
Under 2.5
28.3%
@ 1.82-23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
SBO
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Under
SBO
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.9%
@ 3.25+22.8%
Under 3.5
49.1%
@ 1.27-22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.38
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Superbet
3.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
67.6%
@ 1.71+13.6%
No
32.4%
@ 2.01-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.69
No
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%@ 9.16+4.5%
1-1
8.5%@ 5.67+0.9%
3-1
7.3%@ 20.75+5.2%
2-0
6.9%@ 12.19+3.4%
2-2
6.1%@ 12.42+2.7%
3-0
5.5%@ 26.97+3.9%
1-2
5.2%@ 9.35+0.5%
1-0
5.0%@ 7.87-0.4%
FC Sochi goals ↓
Nizhny Novgorod goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
2.5%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.0%
8.5%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
2
6.9%
9.2%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.5%
7.3%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
4
3.3%
4.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Sochi goals (down), columns = Nizhny Novgorod goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Sochi
2.57
Nizhny Novgorod
2.29
Veles
2.14
Ural
2.00
FC UFA
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.67
Spartak Kostroma
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Enisey
1.17
FK Neftekhimik
1.12
Arsenal Tula
1.12
Leningradets
1.00
Tekstilshchik
0.71
KAMAZ
0.71
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Ska-khabarovsk
0.43
FC Sochi is 0.29 points better than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of average points per game (2.57 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nizhny Novgorod
3.00
FC Sochi
2.29
Ural
1.83
Torpedo Moskva
1.83
Veles
1.57
Enisey
1.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
1.25
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.17
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
FC UFA
1.17
Chelyabinsk
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Arsenal Tula
0.88
Ska-khabarovsk
0.71
Leningradets
0.67
FK Neftekhimik
0.62
Tekstilshchik
0.29
FC Sochi is 0.71 goals worse than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ural
0.50
Torpedo Moskva
0.67
Leningradets
0.83
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
FC Sochi
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.17
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.17
Enisey
1.33
Nizhny Novgorod
1.43
Veles
1.43
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
KAMAZ
1.57
Arsenal Tula
1.62
Ska-khabarovsk
2.00
Chelyabinsk
2.17
FC Sochi is 0.43 goals better than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Sochi
54%
FK Neftekhimik
54%
Veles
54%
Volga Ulyanovsk
52%
Arsenal Tula
52%
Leningradets
50%
Nizhny Novgorod
50%
Chelyabinsk
50%
Tekstilshchik
49%
Spartak Kostroma
49%
Ska-khabarovsk
46%
FC UFA
46%
KAMAZ
46%
Ural
40%
FC Sochi is 4.5 percentage points better than Nizhny Novgorod in terms of average possession (54% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC Sochi
For 4.4 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nizhny Novgorod
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Sochi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.2
8.3
3.8
3.9
3.7
27.1
26.1
28.0
vs Stronger (16)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.9
4.2
3.6
26.8
25.2
28.5
vs Similar (31)
8.4
9.7
7.2
3.6
4.0
3.2
27.3
26.8
27.7
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
-
10.0
4.7
0.0
7.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
62%
41%
56%
54%
58%
94%
93%
94%
% under line
48%
38%
59%
44%
46%
42%
6%
7%
6%
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.3
10.6
4.0
4.3
3.7
28.4
28.7
28.2
vs Stronger (24)
10.2
10.6
9.9
4.3
5.3
3.5
28.1
29.6
26.9
vs Similar (26)
9.7
8.2
11.6
3.8
3.7
4.0
28.8
27.9
30.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
37%
63%
56%
69%
42%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
50%
63%
37%
44%
31%
58%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
KAMAZ
15.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
Arsenal Tula
9.3
FC Sochi
9.2
Tekstilshchik
9.0
Leningradets
8.9
Veles
8.8
FK Neftekhimik
8.7
FC UFA
8.7
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Ural
8.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tekstilshchik
5.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
FC Sochi
4.4
Veles
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Sochi
27.1
FK Neftekhimik
27.0
FC UFA
27.0
Ural
26.8
Enisey
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.0%
@ 1.89+3.8%
Under 9.5
47.0%
@ 1.83-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.8%
Under 3.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
85.9%
Under 21.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Sochi or Draw
80.4%
Avg Implied 65.1% · @ 1.42
Edge
+15.4%
60%
21%
20%
covers FC Sochi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.34
FC Sochi or Nizhny Novgorod
79.5%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.29
Edge
+8.2%
60%
21%
20%
covers FC Sochi + Nizhny Novgorod
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
SBO
1.25
Draw or Nizhny Novgorod
40.1%
Avg Implied 63.6% · @ 1.45
Edge
-23.5%
60%
21%
20%
covers Draw + Nizhny Novgorod
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
SBO
1.44
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5
Over
90.8%
@ 1.27+18.8%
Under
9.2%
@ 3.28-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
3.41
Superbet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
FC Sochi over/under 1.5
Over
68.8%
@ 2.44+30.6%
Under
31.2%
@ 1.50-30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Superbet
2.27
Under
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
FC Sochi over/under 2.5
Over
42.6%
@ 5.50+26.1%
Under
57.4%
@ 1.09-26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
4.70
Under
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
FC Sochi over/under 3.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
@ 1.28+1.8%
Under
26.4%
@ 3.27-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.45
1xBet
3.26
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.10
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
@ 2.44+0.3%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.50-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Superbet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
@ 5.53-1.4%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Sochi, so a minus line means FC Sochi give that many goals of a start and Nizhny Novgorod receive them. At -1, FC Sochi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Sochi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Sochi)
FC Sochi -2
21.5%
@ 6.90+10.0%
Draw -2
17.8%
@ 4.75+1.2%
Nizhny Novgorod +2
60.7%
@ 1.10-11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (FC Sochi)
FC Sochi -1
39.3%
@ 5.30+22.4%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 4.25-0.4%
Nizhny Novgorod +1
40.1%
@ 1.44-22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.30
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (FC Sochi)
FC Sochi +1
80.4%
@ 1.46+19.1%
Draw +1
11.2%
@ 4.20-10.1%
Nizhny Novgorod -1
8.4%
@ 5.15-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.46
Draw
Marathonbet
4.20
Away
Marathonbet
5.15
Handicap +2 (FC Sochi)
FC Sochi +2
91.6%
@ 1.10+19.8%
Draw +2
5.6%
@ 4.85-10.7%
Nizhny Novgorod -2
2.8%
@ 6.65-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Sochi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.64
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.65
0.67
0.33
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.87
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.33
1.71
0.29
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.38+10.4%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 2.77-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
Superbet
2.75
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.3%
@ 2.81+10.5%
Under 1.5
56.7%
@ 1.37-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Superbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.6%
@ 6.68+9.1%
Under 2.5
77.4%
@ 1.05-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
5.85
Under
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.0%
@ 2.10+7.9%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.65-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
FC Sochi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 7.40+5.3%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.06-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
FC Sochi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.2%
@ 2.11-4.8%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.65+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.3%
@ 7.30-2.4%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.06+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Sochi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.93
1.00
0.71
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.38
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.75
1.00
0.44
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nizhny Novgorod) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nizhny Novgorod
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.13
0.00
0.75
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.93
1.00
0.71
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Sochi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.21+8.5%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 3.60-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Under
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.6%
@ 2.13+8.0%
Under 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.65-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.07
Under
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.9%
@ 4.45+3.5%
Under 2.5
76.1%
@ 1.14-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Superbet
4.10
Under
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Sochi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.7%
@ 1.77+9.7%
Under
38.3%
@ 1.92-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.73
Under
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
FC Sochi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.0%
@ 5.20+5.2%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.13-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Under
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
FC Sochi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.7%
@ 1.78-6.1%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.91+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 5.10-4.5%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.13+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Under
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Nizhny Novgorod over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.6%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
-
-
+19.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
1.27
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.24
-
+18.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+2.4%
Over 1.5
89.3%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
-
+17.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
-
+4.5%
Over 21.5 fouls
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
-
-
+1.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
-
-
+8.5%
Under 5.5
82.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-9.9%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
-
-5.3%
Home or Draw
80.4%
1.42
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.39
SBO
1.34
-
+15.4%
Home +1 handicap
80.4%
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
-
-
-
-
+19.1%
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.5%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
SBO
1.25
-
+8.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.4%
1.05
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-9.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.38
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.35
-
+10.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
-
-5.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-
-
-3.5%
Over 2.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.6%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
-
+1.8%
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
1.25
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-1.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC Sochi · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladimir Iljin18%
Ignacio Saavedra17%
Martin Kramarič17%
François Kamano13%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
Mikhail Ignatov8%
Dmitriy Vasiljev8%
Kirill Kravtsov6%
Marcelo Alves6%
Maksim Mukhin5%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov5%
Zakhar Fedorov5%
Kirill Zaika4%
Roman Ezhov0%
Vyacheslav Litvinov0%
Artem Makarchuk0%
Ruslan Magal0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Yahia Attiyat Allah0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yahia Attiyat Allah50%
Vyacheslav Litvinov36%
Marcelo Alves33%
Gustavo Furtado33%
Nabil Aberdin29%
Kirill Zaika24%
Artem Makarchuk24%
Dmitriy Vasiljev21%
Kirill Kravtsov19%
Vladimir Iljin18%
Saúl Guarirapa17%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov14%
Sergey Volkov14%
Roman Ezhov12%
Aleksandr Degtev12%
Ignacio Saavedra11%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
Martin Kramarič11%
Yury Dyupin10%
Maksim Mukhin10%
Zakhar Fedorov10%
Aleksandr Kovalenko9%
Mikhail Ignatov8%
François Kamano7%
Ruslan Magal0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Artem Korneev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruslan Magal19%
Vladimir Iljin18%
Gustavo Furtado17%
Yahia Attiyat Allah12%
Anton Zinkovskiy11%
François Kamano7%
Artem Makarchuk6%
Ignacio Saavedra6%
Sergey Volkov5%
Mikhail Ignatov4%
Dmitriy Vasiljev4%
Kirill Zaika0%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov0%
Roman Ezhov0%
Vyacheslav Litvinov0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Kirill Kravtsov0%
Marcelo Alves0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Zakhar Fedorov0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladimir Iljin27%
Kirill Kravtsov12%
Ignacio Saavedra11%
Anton Zinkovskiy7%
Vyacheslav Litvinov7%
Mikhail Ignatov4%
François Kamano0%
Kirill Zaika0%
Aleksandr Soldatenkov0%
Roman Ezhov0%
Artem Makarchuk0%
Ruslan Magal0%
Yury Dyupin0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Nemanja Stojić0%
Yahia Attiyat Allah0%
Aleksandr Osipov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Saúl Guarirapa0%
Marcelo Alves0%
Gustavo Furtado0%
Sergey Volkov0%
Aleksandr Kovalenko0%
Nabil Aberdin0%
Dmitriy Vasiljev0%
Ruslan Bart0%
Pavel Meleshin0%
Zakhar Fedorov0%
Aleksandr Degtev0%
Artem Korneev0%
Nizhny Novgorod · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juan Manuel Boselli38%
Adrián Balboa25%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Thiago Vecino14%
Daniil Lesovoy12%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Luka Tičić8%
Renaldo Cephas6%
Sven Karič3%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Manuel Boselli50%
Viktor Aleksandrov37%
Edgardo Fariña36%
Adrián Balboa25%
Andrey Ivlev24%
Renaldo Cephas22%
Juan Castillo22%
Matvey Urvantsev20%
Mamadou Maiga18%
Nikita Kakkoev18%
Maksim Shnaptsev17%
Nikita Ermakov17%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy17%
Daniil Lesovoy16%
Thiago Vecino14%
Egor Smelov14%
Sven Karič14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Nikolay Kalinskiy11%
Vyacheslav Grulev10%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Nikita Medvedev3%
Luka Tičić0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Egor Smelov14%
Olakunle Olusegun12%
Renaldo Cephas11%
Nikita Kakkoev6%
Yuriy Koledin5%
Maksim Shnaptsev4%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Luka Tičić4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Adrián Balboa0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Vyacheslav Grulev0%
Sven Karič0%
Juan Manuel Boselli0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Juan Castillo0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Alex Opoku Sarfo0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juan Manuel Boselli31%
Vyacheslav Grulev24%
Olakunle Olusegun19%
Adrián Balboa17%
Juan Castillo11%
Alex Opoku Sarfo7%
Daniil Lesovoy4%
Nikita Medvedev0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Kakkoev0%
Nikolay Kalinskiy0%
Sven Karič0%
Luka Tičić0%
Thiago Vecino0%
Mamadou Maiga0%
Valeriy Tsarukyan0%
Viktor Aleksandrov0%
Vadim Pigas0%
Ilya Kirsch0%
Edgardo Fariña0%
Yuriy Koledin0%
Renaldo Cephas0%
Nikita Ermakov0%
Egor Smelov0%
Maksim Shnaptsev0%
Yaroslav Krashevskiy0%
Andrey Ivlev0%
Matvey Urvantsev0%
Artem Sidorenko0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (28)
€18m
FS (21)
€15m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
FC Sochi's squad is €2m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€15m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
FC Sochi's attack is €1m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€5m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
FC Sochi's midfield is €1m less valuable than Nizhny Novgorod's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (11)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
FC Sochi and Nizhny Novgorod have a similar defence value (both €9m).
Russia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Veles
Ural
FC UFA
Torpedo Moskva
Rotor Volgograd
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Spartak Kostroma
Arsenal Tula
FK Neftekhimik
Enisey
Volga Ulyanovsk
Leningradets
KAMAZ
Tekstilshchik
Chelyabinsk
Ska-khabarovsk