FC Sochi is the clear favourite to win this match at Volga Ulyanovsk, with a 66% probability of a home win. The model rates them so highly due to the away side's recent form, particularly their last defeat with a 0-2 scoreline against Chelyabinsk. Volga Ulyanovsk's away form is not impressive, conceding 1.5 goals on average, which could be a weakness for FC Sochi to exploit.
The predicted match result is a home win, with a 66% probability of a home win, 21% probability of a draw, and 13% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.1. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11% probability.
FC Sochi's home form is strong, scoring 1.86 goals on average and conceding 0.71. Volga Ulyanovsk's away form is weaker, scoring 1.5 goals on average and conceding 1.5.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 66% probability. Other selections include Under 21.5 fouls (100%), Under 9.5 corners (100%), Over 1.5 goals (82.4%), and Over 3.5 cards (72.7%). The home win percentage is 66%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 13%.
FC Sochi's 1-0 win extends their 2-game winning run, with the home team now on a high note. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the predicted low-scoring match. The model's selection, a home win, was correct. The final score was 1-0, not the most likely 2-0 or 2-1. The model's expected total goals were 3.2, but the actual total was 1. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals missed, with a probability of 83.5%. The model's selection was the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 66%.
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.87 | 1.36 | 1.79 | 1.12 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.82 | 2.55 | 1.00 | 3.17 | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.62 | 0.75 | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.37 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.26 | 1.57 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Volga Ulyanovsk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.8% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.9% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
FC Sochi
Volga Ulyanovsk
FC Sochi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 27.1 | 26.1 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 10.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 26.8 | 25.2 | 28.5 |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 27.3 | 26.8 | 27.7 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 10.0 | - | 10.0 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 52% | 62% | 41% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 94% | 93% | 94% |
| % under line | 48% | 38% | 59% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 6.3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (15) | 6.5 | - | 6.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 6.0 | 6.0 | - | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28% | 32% | 24% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 68% | 76% | - | - | - |
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.45 | 1.09 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
FC Sochi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.10 | 0.79 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.36 | 1.45 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
Volga Ulyanovsk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.70 | 0.87 | 0.64 | 1.09 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.22 | 1.26 | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | +7.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 77.1% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +6.6% | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/24 | H | 2-0 |
FC Sochi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/07/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-1 |
Volga Ulyanovsk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Sochi | 7 | 18 | 86% | 2.6 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.3 | 86% | 86% | 29% | 10.5 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 2 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 16 | 71% | 2.3 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 71% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 3 | Veles | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 4.5 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 4 | Ural | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 40% |
| 5 | FC UFA | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | 10.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Rotor Volgograd | 8 | 10 | 38% | 1.2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 2.2 | 62% | 38% | 12% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Kostroma | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 33% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 10 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 9 | 25% | 1.1 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 2.5 | 62% | 50% | 38% | 8.5 | 50% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 11 | FK Neftekhimik | 8 | 9 | 38% | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.1 | 50% | 25% | 12% | 8.5 | 50% | 4.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 12 | Enisey | 6 | 7 | 17% | 1.2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 2.8 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 6.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 14 | Leningradets | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 33% | 0% | 12.5 | 100% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 15 | KAMAZ | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 15.0 | 100% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 | Tekstilshchik | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1.3 | 29% | 14% | 14% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 17 | Chelyabinsk | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 50% |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 7 | 3 | 14% | 0.4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2.7 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 6.5 | 50% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 46% |