This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.50
1.94
1.31
1.64
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
1.63
1.78
1.44
1.50
1.80
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.30
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.2%
Under 1.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.2%
@ 1.61+0.6%
Under 2.5
40.8%
@ 2.28-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.6%
No
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-0
5.6%
FC St. Pauli goals ↓
Holstein Kiel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.9%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.1%
12%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.5%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.9%
4.4%
3.3%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC St. Pauli goals (down), columns = Holstein Kiel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arminia Bielefeld
2.00
VfB Stuttgart
1.71
1. FC Heidenheim
1.62
Hamburger SV
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98
1.53
Hannover 96
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.38
VfL Bochum
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
Regensburg
1.26
VfL Osnabrück
1.18
FC St. Pauli
1.15
Karlsruher SC
1.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.09
Wehen
1.00
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
FC St. Pauli is 0.12 points worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Arminia Bielefeld
1.91
Hamburger SV
1.82
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
Hannover 96
1.59
Holstein Kiel
1.56
VfL Bochum
1.56
Regensburg
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.41
VfL Osnabrück
1.35
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.35
Erzgebirge Aue
1.35
Karlsruher SC
1.32
Wehen
1.32
1. FC Heidenheim
1.32
1. FC Nürnberg
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.26
FC St. Pauli
1.21
Dynamo Dresden
0.94
FC St. Pauli is 0.35 goals worse than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arminia Bielefeld
0.88
1. FC Heidenheim
1.06
VfB Stuttgart
1.21
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.32
SV Sandhausen
1.32
Hamburger SV
1.35
VfL Osnabrück
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.41
Hannover 96
1.44
FC St. Pauli
1.47
VfL Bochum
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.65
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Regensburg
1.65
Dynamo Dresden
1.71
1. FC Nürnberg
1.71
Wehen
1.91
FC St. Pauli is 0.18 goals better than Holstein Kiel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
FC St. Pauli
For 5.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Holstein Kiel
For 7.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC St. Pauli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
9.0
4.1
3.9
4.2
25.9
26.2
25.6
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
28.0
-
28.0
vs Similar (30)
9.7
10.4
8.8
4.1
3.9
4.2
25.1
25.2
24.9
vs Weaker (19)
8.4
7.9
8.8
4.2
3.9
4.5
27.1
28.1
26.3
% over line
40%
44%
36%
66%
68%
64%
82%
88%
76%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
34%
32%
36%
18%
12%
24%
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
11.4
11.8
3.5
3.5
3.6
25.4
26.4
24.4
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
13.0
14.0
3.0
2.0
4.0
25.5
29.0
22.0
vs Similar (34)
11.7
11.4
11.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
25.9
27.1
24.8
vs Weaker (14)
11.0
11.0
11.0
3.7
3.4
4.2
24.4
24.9
23.8
% over line
66%
68%
64%
50%
44%
56%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
34%
32%
36%
50%
56%
44%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Holstein Kiel
11.6
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11.3
Regensburg
11.0
1. FC Nürnberg
10.9
VfL Osnabrück
10.8
1. FC Heidenheim
10.6
VfB Stuttgart
10.3
VfL Bochum
10.2
SV Darmstadt 98
10.2
Hannover 96
10.2
Arminia Bielefeld
10.0
Hamburger SV
10.0
SV Sandhausen
9.7
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Dynamo Dresden
9.3
Erzgebirge Aue
9.2
Wehen
8.8
Karlsruher SC
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wehen
5.8
VfL Osnabrück
5.0
Erzgebirge Aue
4.9
Regensburg
4.6
VfL Bochum
4.3
Dynamo Dresden
4.3
SV Darmstadt 98
4.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.1
FC St. Pauli
4.1
SV Sandhausen
4.1
Hamburger SV
4.0
Karlsruher SC
4.0
1. FC Heidenheim
4.0
Hannover 96
3.9
VfB Stuttgart
3.9
Arminia Bielefeld
3.8
1. FC Nürnberg
3.6
Holstein Kiel
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Regensburg
29.0
Dynamo Dresden
28.2
VfL Bochum
28.2
Erzgebirge Aue
27.7
SV Sandhausen
27.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
27.2
SV Darmstadt 98
26.6
Arminia Bielefeld
26.3
VfL Osnabrück
26.0
1. FC Heidenheim
26.0
FC St. Pauli
25.9
Wehen
25.5
Holstein Kiel
25.4
Hamburger SV
25.4
Hannover 96
25.4
Karlsruher SC
25.0
1. FC Nürnberg
23.4
VfB Stuttgart
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
66.8%
Under 9.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.7%
Under 3.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
78.6%
Under 21.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.67
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.75
0.56
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.95
0.56
0.78
0.90
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.50
0.83
0.33
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC St. Pauli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
1.00
0.80
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.06
0.89
1.00
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.64
1.17
0.50
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Holstein Kiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holstein Kiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.19
0.75
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.68
1.22
0.67
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.80
1.17
0.83
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC St. Pauli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC St. Pauli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holstein Kiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
FC St. Pauli · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Taichi Hara25%
Martijn Kaars25%
Marcus Mathisen25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcus Mathisen50%
Arkadiusz Pyrka50%
Ricky-Jade Jones33%
Joel Chima Fujita33%
David Nemeth25%
Mathias Rasmussen25%
Tomoya Ando25%
Branimir Hrgota0%
Eric Smith0%
Taichi Hara0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Ben Voll0%
Louis Oppie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Branimir Hrgota25%
Taichi Hara25%
Arkadiusz Pyrka25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Martijn Kaars0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martijn Kaars75%
Branimir Hrgota25%
David Nemeth0%
Eric Smith0%
Mathias Rasmussen0%
Taichi Hara0%
Marcus Mathisen0%
Ben Voll0%
Ricky-Jade Jones0%
Joel Chima Fujita0%
Arkadiusz Pyrka0%
Louis Oppie0%
Tomoya Ando0%
Holstein Kiel · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi50%
Jonas Therkelsen25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kasper Davidsen75%
Ivan Nekić50%
Jonas Therkelsen50%
Hiroki Sekine50%
Timon Weiner33%
Leon Parduzi33%
Jonas Meffert25%
Guillermo Balzi25%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Phil Harres0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Phil Harres50%
Adrián Kaprálik50%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Guillermo Balzi0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Phil Harres75%
Guillermo Balzi25%
Ivan Nekić0%
Timon Weiner0%
Jonas Meffert0%
David Zec0%
Faride Alidou0%
Adrián Kaprálik0%
Jonas Therkelsen0%
Hiroki Sekine0%
Leon Parduzi0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (54)
€430m
HS (28)
€117m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
H9 (26)
€33m
KS (25)
€31m
SD9 (28)
€24m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
VO (25)
€10m
EA (18)
€2m
FC St. Pauli's squad is €12m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€46m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (19)
€193m
HS (11)
€46m
KS (7)
€16m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
H9 (9)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
VO (9)
€5m
SGF (6)
€4m
EA (5)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's attack is €2m less valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (10)
€92m
HS (5)
€34m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
H9 (8)
€11m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
KS (6)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
VO (7)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's midfield is €9m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€15m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VS (25)
€145m
HS (12)
€37m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
H9 (9)
€12m
KS (12)
€12m
SGF (10)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
VO (9)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
FC St. Pauli's defence is €6m more valuable than Holstein Kiel's (€21m vs €16m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Arminia Bielefeld
VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
Hannover 96
Erzgebirge Aue
VfL Bochum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
SV Sandhausen
VfL Osnabrück
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Dynamo Dresden