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FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 1-3
FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Vs
30%
27%
42%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Germany: Bundesliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives FC St. Pauli a 30% win probability against VfL Wolfsburg in the Germany: Bundesliga on 2026-05-16, with 27% for the draw and 42% for VfL Wolfsburg. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%), Under 21.5 fouls (72%).

Results analysis

FC St. Pauli finished 1-3 against VfL Wolfsburg (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 27% draw and 42% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%), Under 21.5 fouls (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FC St. Pauli win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 33.5% · @ 2.78
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.63
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
VfL Wolfsburg win✓ Hit
42.5%
Avg Implied 40.8% · @ 2.28
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D02L12L11D05L11D02L12L12LA·18928/02H·EIN08/03A·BOR13/03H·SC 22/03A·UNI05/04H·BAY11/04H·1. 17/04A·1. 25/04H·FSV03/05A·RB 09/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.770.791.710.621.81
vs Stronger (14)0.712.070.711.570.712.57
vs Similar (16)0.691.500.861.860.561.22
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L12L11D01L36L12L21W00D11D01LA·VFB01/03H·HAM07/03A·18914/03H·WER21/03A·BAY04/04H·EIN11/04A·UNI18/04H·BOR25/04A·SC 03/05H·BAY09/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.101.131.871.202.33
vs Stronger (8)1.003.000.501.751.504.25
vs Similar (22)1.231.771.361.911.091.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.65-2.6%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 2.16+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
FC St. Pauli goals ↓
VfL Wolfsburg goals →
01234
07.0%7.9%7.1%3.7%1.4%
16.3%13%9.1%4.7%1.8%
24.8%7.5%5.8%3.0%1.2%
32.1%3.2%2.5%1.3%0.5%
40.7%1.0%0.8%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC St. Pauli goals (down), columns = VfL Wolfsburg goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
SC Paderborn 07
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
VfL Wolfsburg
0.83
FC St. Pauli
0.76
1. FC Heidenheim
0.76
FC St. Pauli is 0.07 points worse than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of average points per game (0.76 vs 0.83).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
Union Berlin
1.29
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg
1.28
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
1. FC Heidenheim
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.18
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC St. Pauli
0.85
FC St. Pauli is 0.42 goals worse than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.28).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
RB Leipzig
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC St. Pauli
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
VfL Wolfsburg
1.97
1. FC Heidenheim
2.12
FC St. Pauli is 0.21 goals better than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.97).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
VfL Wolfsburg
45%
Hamburger SV
45%
FC St. Pauli
44%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
1. FC Heidenheim
42%
Union Berlin
40%
FC St. Pauli is 1.1 percentage points worse than VfL Wolfsburg in terms of average possession (44% vs 45%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli

For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

140537766853427322265310814121379541113A·RB H·FSVA·1. H·1. H·BAYA·UNIH·SC A·BORH·EINA·189
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.9

🟨 Cards

50231141123112121212415332333A·RB H·FSVA·1. H·1. H·BAYA·UNIH·SC A·BORH·EINA·189
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.4 · Against 7.5 · Total 15.9

⚠️ Fouls

2109510867629781096791387131418138161815162120A·RB H·FSVA·1. H·1. H·BAYA·UNIH·SC A·BORH·EINA·189
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

For 5.6 · Against 6.9 · Total 12.5

🚩 Corners

20063718541177212844167337981315141412201010H·BAYA·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.2

🟨 Cards

7011114112131434311252344371H·BAYA·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 7.1 · Total 19.7

⚠️ Fouls

28085115115151398118166101018617513161628171922202422H·BAYA·SC H·BORA·UNIH·EINA·BAYH·WERA·189H·HAMA·VFB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.39.79.03.53.83.320.220.420.1
vs Stronger (23)8.78.58.93.63.93.220.921.620.2
vs Similar (27)9.910.89.13.53.73.419.719.320.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line48%48%48%44%48%40%34%36%32%
% under line52%52%52%56%52%60%66%64%68%
This opponent (VfL Wolfsburg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.211.111.33.64.23.020.421.119.6
vs Stronger (12)10.812.29.52.93.32.518.218.817.5
vs Similar (38)11.310.811.93.94.53.221.121.820.3
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line70%76%64%50%60%40%44%52%36%
% under line30%24%36%50%40%60%56%48%64%
This opponent (FC St. Pauli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
VfL Wolfsburg
11.2
RB Leipzig
10.5
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.2
VfB Stuttgart
9.9
SC Paderborn 07
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.8
FC Augsburg
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
Union Berlin
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.4
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
FC St. Pauli
9.3
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.2
1. FC Heidenheim
9.2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.1
SC Freiburg
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
Werder Bremen
4.6
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
1. FC Köln
4.5
FSV Mainz 05
4.4
Bayer Leverkusen
4.4
FC Augsburg
4.1
Union Berlin
4.0
VfB Stuttgart
4.0
1899 Hoffenheim
4.0
Bayern München
3.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
SC Freiburg
3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.8
1. FC Heidenheim
3.8
VfL Wolfsburg
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
FC St. Pauli
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
SC Paderborn 07
24.5
Hamburger SV
24.0
SC Freiburg
23.0
1899 Hoffenheim
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.5
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
FSV Mainz 05
22.0
FC Augsburg
22.0
Union Berlin
21.8
1. FC Heidenheim
21.4
Werder Bremen
20.7
1. FC Köln
20.6
VfL Wolfsburg
20.4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.3
FC St. Pauli
20.2
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.9
RB Leipzig
19.9
Bayer Leverkusen
19.6
Bayern München
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.6%
Under 9.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.6%
Under 3.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
28.0%
Under 21.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls72.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (35)
€619m
BD (33)
€500m
VS (34)
€448m
EF (30)
€357m
VW (33)
€201m
HS (33)
€177m
WB (32)
€168m
BM (33)
€162m
FM0 (31)
€154m
UB (29)
€130m
SP0 (31)
€53m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RL (15)
€346m
VS (11)
€210m
EF (14)
€183m
BD (9)
€170m
VW (9)
€78m
BM (13)
€64m
HS (15)
€58m
FM0 (10)
€50m
WB (9)
€47m
UB (9)
€37m
SP0 (11)
€10m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (7)
€122m
RL (7)
€104m
VS (6)
€88m
FM0 (6)
€62m
BM (8)
€51m
EF (4)
€50m
WB (5)
€30m
UB (6)
€25m
VW (6)
€25m
HS (2)
€21m
SP0 (9)
€21m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BD (17)
€208m
RL (13)
€168m
VS (17)
€150m
EF (12)
€124m
VW (18)
€98m
HS (16)
€98m
WB (18)
€91m
UB (14)
€68m
BM (12)
€47m
FM0 (15)
€42m
SP0 (11)
€22m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg · H/A from FSP
DateH/AGameScore
14/01/26AVfL Wolfsburg Vs FSP2-1
08/03/25AVfL Wolfsburg Vs FSP1-1
26/10/24HFSP Vs VfL Wolfsburg0-0

FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ARB Leipzig Vs FSP2-1
03/05/26HFSP Vs FSV Mainz 051-2
25/04/26A1. FC Heidenheim Vs FSP2-0
17/04/26HFSP Vs 1. FC Köln1-1
11/04/26HFSP Vs Bayern München0-5
05/04/26AUnion Berlin Vs FSP1-1
22/03/26HFSP Vs SC Freiburg1-2
13/03/26ABorussia Mönchengladbach Vs FSP2-0
08/03/26HFSP Vs Eintracht Frankfurt0-0
28/02/26A1899 Hoffenheim Vs FSP0-1

VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HVW Vs Bayern München0-1
03/05/26ASC Freiburg Vs VW1-1
25/04/26HVW Vs Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0
18/04/26AUnion Berlin Vs VW1-2
11/04/26HVW Vs Eintracht Frankfurt1-2
04/04/26ABayer Leverkusen Vs VW6-3
21/03/26HVW Vs Werder Bremen0-1
14/03/26A1899 Hoffenheim Vs VW1-1
07/03/26HVW Vs Hamburger SV1-2
01/03/26AVfB Stuttgart Vs VW4-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

FC St. Pauli
FC St. Pauli
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.88
HomeDLLDL1.04
AwayWLDLL0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals2.422.402.44
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %16%12%20%
Scored0.880.920.84
Conceded1.541.481.60
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet18%16%20%
Corners9.349.689.00
Cards3.613.963.28
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Germany: Bundesliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL0.84
HomeLLLDL0.60
AwayLDLWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%8%28%
AVG goals3.062.883.24
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.201.161.24
Conceded1.861.722.00
BTTS68%68%68%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners11.2211.1211.32
Cards3.714.243.17

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Bayern MünchenBayern München3489
82%
2.6
12236+86
4.6
97%
94%
76%
9.9
53%
3.7
45%
17.8
32%
0
0003.61.1
67%
2Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3473
65%
2.1
7034+36
3.1
85%
56%
32%
9.5
44%
3.8
58%
21.9
59%
500
1701222082.11.0
53%
3RB LeipzigRB Leipzig3465
59%
1.9
6647+19
3.3
85%
71%
47%
9.6
53%
3.3
44%
19.6
29%
619
3461041681.91.4
54%
4VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart3462
53%
1.8
7149+22
3.5
85%
74%
53%
9.9
56%
3.7
45%
21.9
53%
448
210881502.11.4
58%
51899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim3461
53%
1.8
6552+13
3.4
85%
71%
50%
10.6
65%
4.1
64%
22.9
68%
0
0001.91.5
55%
6Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen3459
50%
1.7
6847+21
3.4
85%
59%
41%
9.7
59%
4.9
59%
19.8
38%
0
0002.01.4
59%
7SC FreiburgSC Freiburg3447
38%
1.4
5157-6
3.2
82%
65%
38%
8.3
35%
3.8
50%
21.5
41%
0
0001.51.7
48%
8Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt3444
32%
1.3
6165-4
3.7
88%
68%
53%
9.2
50%
4.3
56%
20.1
38%
357
183501241.81.9
55%
9FC AugsburgFC Augsburg3443
35%
1.3
4561-16
3.1
85%
62%
41%
10.2
56%
4.5
70%
22.6
65%
0
0001.31.8
44%
10FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 053440
29%
1.2
4453-9
2.9
82%
53%
32%
9.6
50%
4.2
62%
21.0
44%
154
5062421.31.6
44%
11Union BerlinUnion Berlin3439
29%
1.1
4458-14
3.0
76%
62%
47%
9.8
53%
4.3
58%
22.3
47%
130
3725681.31.7
40%
12Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach3438
26%
1.1
4253-11
2.8
71%
53%
38%
8.6
38%
4.2
50%
21.8
50%
162
6451471.21.6
47%
13Hamburger SVHamburger SV3438
26%
1.1
4054-14
2.8
79%
56%
32%
9.5
47%
5.2
73%
24.5
74%
177
5821981.21.6
45%
141. FC Köln1. FC Köln3432
21%
0.9
4963-14
3.3
85%
65%
47%
10.1
50%
4.6
66%
18.7
35%
0
0001.41.9
47%
15Werder BremenWerder Bremen3432
24%
0.9
3760-23
2.9
79%
53%
35%
9.5
56%
4.2
61%
19.5
32%
168
4730911.11.8
51%
16VfL WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg3630
19%
0.8
4671-25
3.2
78%
64%
42%
11.9
72%
3.9
50%
20.6
44%
201
7825981.32.0
45%
171. FC Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim3426
18%
0.8
4172-31
3.3
91%
68%
41%
9.6
41%
3.7
50%
20.1
38%
0
0001.22.1
42%
18FC St. PauliFC St. Pauli3426
18%
0.8
2960-31
2.6
82%
56%
21%
9.9
56%
3.4
44%
19.0
24%
0
0000.91.8
44%
19SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 0724
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
50%
0%
13.0
50%
8.0
100%
24.5
50%
53
1021221.00.5
52%
Germany: Bundesliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →

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