FC Stăuceni hosts Oguzsport in a Moldova: Liga 1 match. The home side has been defensively solid at home, conceding just 0.75 goals per match against weaker opponents. Oguzsport, on the other hand, has struggled to score away from home, averaging 1.5 goals against stronger opponents.
The recent form of both teams suggests a low-scoring draw. FC Stăuceni comes off a draw, while Oguzsport also drew in their last match. The model predicts a home win with a 46% probability, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 21%. The expected total goals is 1.9, with the most likely score being 1-0, occurring with a 16.4% probability.
The model's selection is the Home win, with the predicted score being 1-0. In terms of scoring and conceding, FC Stăuceni averages 2.75 goals at home and 0.75 goals conceded, while Oguzsport averages 1.5 goals away and 1.5 goals conceded.
The model's suggested picks include the Under 3.5 model selection with a 87.3% probability, and the Under 2.5 model selection with a 70.1% probability. FC Stăuceni has a 46% chance of winning, a 33% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win for FC Stăuceni extends their recent run, as the home side finished the match 1-0 over Oguzsport. The model’s favourite was a home win, with a 46 % probability, and it proved correct. The predicted 2-goal total was also right, as the game ended 1-0. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Under 5.5 (98.7 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.7 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (96.4 %). The model’s selections performed consistently, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Stăuceni win✓ Hit
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport win✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Stăuceni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.37
2.40
0.73
1.67
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.64
1.00
2.00
0.60
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
2.26
1.58
2.60
0.80
1.89
2.44
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.19
1.59
1.08
1.75
1.27
1.47
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.35
1.00
1.43
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.50
2.25
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.0%
Under 1.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.7%
Under 2.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.6%
Under 3.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.8%
No
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
16.4%
0-0
16.2%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
10.5%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
4.5%
3-0
4.1%
FC Stăuceni goals ↓
Oguzsport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
9.4%
3.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
10%
7.5%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
4.1%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.2%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Stăuceni goals (down), columns = Oguzsport goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FC Stăuceni is 1.67 points better than Oguzsport in terms of average points per game (2.53 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FC Stăuceni is 1.91 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FC Stăuceni is 0.84 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Stăuceni or Draw✓ Hit
78.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
21%
covers FC Stăuceni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni or Oguzsport✓ Hit
66.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
21%
covers FC Stăuceni + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Oguzsport✗ Miss
54.1%
Avg Implied -
46%
33%
21%
covers Draw + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.5%
Under
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Stăuceni, so a minus line means FC Stăuceni give that many goals of a start and Oguzsport receive them. At -1, FC Stăuceni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Stăuceni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Stăuceni)Actual: Oguzsport
FC Stăuceni -2
7.0%
Draw -2
13.8%
Oguzsport +2
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Stăuceni)Actual: Draw
FC Stăuceni -1
20.8%
Draw -1
25.1%
Oguzsport +1
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Stăuceni)Actual: FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni +1
78.9%
Draw +1
14.7%
Oguzsport -1
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Stăuceni)Actual: FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni +2
93.6%
Draw +2
5.0%
Oguzsport -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Stăuceni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.07
0.27
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.20
0.20
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.58
1.00
0.30
0.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.93
0.50
1.17
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.8%
Under 1.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.3%
Under 2.5
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Stăuceni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.80
1.33
0.47
1.13
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.45
0.80
0.40
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.37
1.00
1.60
0.50
1.11
1.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.58
0.58
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.71
0.43
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.3%
Under 1.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
31.1%
Under
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti