Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as FC Stăuceni have kept just 0.7 goals a game at home while Oguzsport concedes a full goal on the road. The model favours a home win, with a 45% chance, a 35% draw, and a 21% away victory. The average goal output is 1.8, suggesting a tight affair, and the most likely total is two goals, though the probability of that total is only 28%. The single most probable final score is 0-0, with an 18.5% chance.
FC Stăuceni, on a two-game winning run and having beaten Fălești 2-1, have scored 2.4 goals per game at home against weaker opposition. Oguzsport, after a loss to FC Stăuceni, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away against stronger teams.
The model’s selections are: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 5.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (96.7%), and Home +2 handicap (94.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Stăuceni win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Stăuceni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.33
2.43
0.64
1.69
1.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.00
2.50
0.50
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.15
1.50
2.40
0.70
1.90
2.30
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.14
1.57
1.08
1.75
1.19
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
0.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.35
1.00
1.43
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.29
1.50
2.25
0.67
2.33
Clean sheet %
29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.7%
Under 1.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.8%
Under 2.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
10.2%
Under 3.5
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
33.4%
No
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.5%
1-0
17.7%
1-1
13.7%
2-0
10.4%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
4.1%
3-0
3.8%
FC Stăuceni goals ↓
Oguzsport goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
10%
3.7%
0.8%
0.1%
1
18%
14%
4.1%
0.9%
0.1%
2
10%
6.9%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
3
3.8%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.1%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Stăuceni goals (down), columns = Oguzsport goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Stăuceni
2.53
Floreşti
2.07
Spartanii Selemet
1.94
FCM Ungheni
1.91
Iskra
1.80
Univer Comrat
1.73
Zimbru II
1.64
FC National Ialoveni
1.49
Vulturii Cutezători
1.49
Oguzsport
0.86
Făleşti
0.73
Victoria Bardar
0.68
FC Stăuceni is 1.67 points better than Oguzsport in terms of average points per game (2.53 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Stăuceni
3.00
Floreşti
2.87
FCM Ungheni
2.59
Spartanii Selemet
2.53
Univer Comrat
2.00
FC National Ialoveni
1.95
Vulturii Cutezători
1.95
Iskra
1.93
Zimbru II
1.86
Victoria Bardar
1.23
Făleşti
1.14
Oguzsport
1.09
FC Stăuceni is 1.91 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Stăuceni
0.80
Floreşti
0.87
Spartanii Selemet
1.37
FCM Ungheni
1.55
Zimbru II
1.59
Oguzsport
1.64
Univer Comrat
1.68
FC National Ialoveni
1.78
Vulturii Cutezători
1.78
Iskra
1.93
Făleşti
2.55
Victoria Bardar
2.91
FC Stăuceni is 0.84 goals better than Oguzsport in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Stăuceni or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
21%
covers FC Stăuceni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni or Oguzsport
65.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
21%
covers FC Stăuceni + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Oguzsport
55.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
35%
21%
covers Draw + Oguzsport
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5
Over
66.7%
Under
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5
Over
48.2%
Under
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Stăuceni, so a minus line means FC Stăuceni give that many goals of a start and Oguzsport receive them. At -1, FC Stăuceni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Stăuceni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Stăuceni)
FC Stăuceni -2
6.1%
Draw -2
13.2%
Oguzsport +2
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (FC Stăuceni)
FC Stăuceni -1
19.3%
Draw -1
25.5%
Oguzsport +1
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (FC Stăuceni)
FC Stăuceni +1
79.4%
Draw +1
14.7%
Oguzsport -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (FC Stăuceni)
FC Stăuceni +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.7%
Oguzsport -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Stăuceni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.07
0.21
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.55
0.90
0.30
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.89
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.43
1.00
1.75
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Stăuceni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.36
0.43
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.25
0.95
1.50
0.40
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Oguzsport) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Oguzsport
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.68
0.58
0.58
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.71
0.43
0.70
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Stăuceni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Stăuceni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Stăuceni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Liga 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →
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Vulturii Cutezători
Iskra
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti
FC National Ialoveni
Victoria Bardar
Zimbru II
Spartanii Selemet
Floreşti