PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

FC Thun vs Baden Result & Analysis

Date: 02/03/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 3-1
FC Thun
FC Thun
Vs
68%
20%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

FC Thun win✓ Hit
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baden win✗ Miss
12.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

FC ThunFC Thun

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W23L11D31W20W00D41W11D10W04LH·FC 11/11A·STA24/11H·FC 08/12H·BEL13/12A·BAD16/12A·BEL27/01H·STA02/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 16/02A·NEU23/02
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.432.361.141.311.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.751.752.002.001.501.50
vs Weaker (26)1.811.382.421.001.291.71
Clean sheet %30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L13L02L02L11D12L21W14L01L23LH·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.912.090.922.250.911.91
vs Stronger (9)0.782.670.752.750.802.60
vs Similar (14)1.001.711.002.001.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %9% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
8.5%
3-1 ✓
7.4%
0-0
5.2%
4-0
4.8%
FC Thun goals ↓
Baden goals →
01234
05.2%2.9%1.6%0.5%0.1%
18.9%9.4%3.7%1.1%0.2%
211%9.7%4.2%1.2%0.3%
38.5%7.4%3.2%0.9%0.2%
44.8%4.2%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Thun goals (down), columns = Baden goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Sion
2.19
FC Thun
2.11
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.36
FC Vaduz
1.36
FC WIL 1900
1.22
Stade Nyonnais
1.19
FC Aarau
1.19
Bellinzona
1.17
FC Schaffhausen
1.06
Baden
0.72
FC Thun is 1.39 points better than Baden in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 0.72).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.03
FC Sion
2.00
FC Vaduz
1.86
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.53
FC Aarau
1.42
FC WIL 1900
1.33
Stade Nyonnais
1.25
Bellinzona
1.08
FC Schaffhausen
1.00
Baden
0.86
FC Thun is 1.17 goals better than Baden in terms of goals scored per game (2.03 vs 0.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
0.64
FC Thun
1.06
Neuchatel Xamax FC
1.25
Bellinzona
1.39
FC WIL 1900
1.44
FC Schaffhausen
1.53
FC Vaduz
1.53
Stade Nyonnais
1.61
FC Aarau
1.64
Baden
2.28
FC Thun is 1.22 goals better than Baden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 2.28).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FC ThunFC Thun

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D11D10W10W00D11D11D00D01LH·FC 11/11A·STA24/11H·FC 08/12H·BEL13/12A·BAD16/12A·BEL27/01H·STA02/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 16/02A·NEU23/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.671.070.570.380.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.501.251.001.500.001.00
vs Weaker (26)0.730.581.080.420.430.71
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L12L02L01L01L01L11D02L00D10WH·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.000.330.830.551.18
vs Stronger (9)0.111.110.000.750.201.40
vs Similar (14)0.640.930.500.880.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FC ThunFC Thun

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L00D21W10W00D30W00D10W03LH·FC 11/11A·STA24/11H·FC 08/12H·BEL13/12A·BAD16/12A·BEL27/01H·STA02/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 16/02A·NEU23/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.771.290.570.940.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.250.501.000.501.500.50
vs Weaker (26)1.080.811.330.580.861.00
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baden) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BadenBaden

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D01L10W11D10W12L01L13LH·NEU10/11A·BEL26/11A·FC 08/12H·FC 16/12A·NEU26/01H·FC 30/01H·BEL04/02A·FC 09/02H·FC 17/02H·STA24/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.481.090.581.420.360.73
vs Stronger (9)0.671.560.752.000.601.20
vs Similar (14)0.360.790.501.120.170.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Thun) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Thun over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Thun over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.0%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

FC Thun · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brighton Labeau60%
Layton Stewart25%
Marc Gutbub25%
Nicolas BÞrgy20%
Nico Maier20%
Nils Reichmuth20%
Jan Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
Niklas Steffen0%
Fabio Fehr0%
Fabio Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
Nassim Zoukit0%
Lucien DÃĪhler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicolas BÞrgy40%
Fabio Fehr33%
Justin Roth20%
Niklas Steffen20%
Nils Reichmuth20%
Brighton Labeau0%
Jan Bamert0%
Layton Stewart0%
Nico Maier0%
Fabio Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
Nassim Zoukit0%
Lucien DÃĪhler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Gutbub50%
Fabio Fehr33%
Dorian Derbaci33%
Fabio Saiz25%
Nassim Zoukit25%
Lucien DÃĪhler25%
Nicolas BÞrgy20%
Brighton Labeau0%
Jan Bamert0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
Nico Maier0%
Niklas Steffen0%
Nils Reichmuth0%
Michael Heule0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brighton Labeau0%
Jan Bamert0%
Nicolas BÞrgy0%
Justin Roth0%
Layton Stewart0%
Nico Maier0%
Niklas Steffen0%
Fabio Fehr0%
Nils Reichmuth0%
Fabio Saiz0%
Michael Heule0%
Nassim Zoukit0%
Lucien DÃĪhler0%
Valmir Matoshi0%
Dorian Derbaci0%
Marc Gutbub0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (28)
€30m
FT (25)
€17m
FV (26)
€6m
FA (23)
€6m
NXF (26)
€5m
BEL (34)
€5m
FW1 (26)
€5m
SN (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (10)
€15m
FT (7)
€4m
FV (9)
€2m
NXF (10)
€2m
FA (6)
€2m
BEL (11)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
FW1 (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (6)
€6m
FT (8)
€5m
FV (8)
€2m
FW1 (7)
€2m
BEL (8)
€1m
NXF (5)
€1m
FA (4)
€1m
SN (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (12)
€9m
FT (10)
€8m
FA (13)
€3m
BEL (15)
€2m
NXF (11)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
FW1 (10)
€2m
SN (9)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
FT wins
0
Draws
0
BAD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FC Thun vs Baden · H/A from FT
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/23ABaden Vs FT0-2
04/08/23HFT Vs Baden6-0

FC ThunFC Thun

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs FT4-0
16/02/24HFT Vs FC Aarau1-0
09/02/24AFC Schaffhausen Vs FT1-1
02/02/24HFT Vs Stade Nyonnais4-1
27/01/24ABellinzona Vs FT0-0
16/12/23ABaden Vs FT0-2
13/12/23HFT Vs Bellinzona3-1
08/12/23HFT Vs FC Sion1-1
24/11/23AStade Nyonnais Vs FT3-2
11/11/23HFT Vs FC Schaffhausen1-0

BadenBaden

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/24HBAD Vs Stade Nyonnais2-3
17/02/24HBAD Vs FC Schaffhausen0-1
09/02/24AFC Sion Vs BAD4-1
04/02/24HBAD Vs Bellinzona2-1
30/01/24HBAD Vs FC Aarau1-2
26/01/24ANeuchatel Xamax FC Vs BAD1-1
16/12/23HBAD Vs FC Thun0-2
08/12/23AFC Schaffhausen Vs BAD2-0
26/11/23ABellinzona Vs BAD3-1
10/11/23HBAD Vs Neuchatel Xamax FC0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

FC Thun
FC Thun
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.62
HomeWDWWW1.76
AwayLWDDL1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%48%40%
AVG goals3.183.203.16
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %44%44%44%
Scored1.801.921.68
Conceded1.381.281.48
BTTS62%72%52%
Clean Sheet26%24%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Baden
Baden
Switzerland: Challenge League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.87
HomeLLWLL0.67
AwayWLLDL1.09
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%17%27%
AVG goals3.003.172.82
Over 1.5 %87%92%82%
Over 2.5 %52%58%45%
Over 3.5 %35%42%27%
Scored0.910.920.91
Conceded2.092.251.91
BTTS57%50%64%
Clean Sheet9%8%9%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC SionFC Sion3679
64%
2.2
7223+49
2.6
78%
56%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
30
15692.00.6
-
2FC ThunFC Thun3676
64%
2.1
7338+35
3.1
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
4582.01.1
-
3FC VaduzFC Vaduz3649
36%
1.4
6755+12
3.4
81%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
4Neuchatel Xamax FCNeuchatel Xamax FC3649
31%
1.4
5545+10
2.8
86%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.2
-
5FC WIL 1900FC WIL 19003644
31%
1.2
4852-4
2.8
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.31.4
-
6FC AarauFC Aarau3643
33%
1.2
5159-8
3.1
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.6
-
7Stade NyonnaisStade Nyonnais3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
83%
44%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.6
-
8BellinzonaBellinzona3642
31%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
69%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.4
-
9FC SchaffhausenFC Schaffhausen3638
22%
1.1
3655-19
2.5
78%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10BadenBaden3626
17%
0.7
3182-51
3.1
86%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.3
-
Switzerland: Challenge League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Challenge League stats & trends →

← all matches